oldmanfan

Not much relevance to this. Maybe in the middle of the field but there is no way any NFL HC is going for it on 4th and 1 deep in their own side of the field.

The x axis isn't labeled.

Good points. Also it can mean better WRs can make catches even with tight coverage.

Good points all. It is of course unrealistic to think that every move made by new management will be successful. Some that Beane and McD have made were wrong, and some will continue to be wrong. And some right, as it is in every organization. Your point about them changing dramatically in a short time period is interesting. I have been the new guy coming in, and I have seen the new guy coming in, and there are generally two ways to go about it. One is to come in and quietly observe for a while, see what's working and what isn't, then gradually effect changes. The other is to rip the Band-Aid off and get after it. I think McD was the latter; I think he had done his homework, knew what was going on with this team under Rex, knew the culture had to change, and convinced Terry it needed to get done quickly to move forward.

Patience is a virtue. One that I lack at times in this discussion admittedly, because it gets frustrating when narratives are changed as Shaw points out, or when logic flies out the window, as in continuing to cast the sins of previous regimes on the present regime. Bottom line is we have a management team for the Bills that has a plan for how they want to build a consistent championship level team. They are being loyal to that process, and it will either work or not. Assuming it won't work is a meaningless as assuming they'll be champs. Let's see how they do.

Good synopsis. I have used the term "wallow in misery" for this, and been criticized for it. It seems fairly accurate though.

It's interesting, and thanks for posting it. CincyBillsFan and I both have research backgrounds and tend to be much more critical of the kinds of analyses expressed in the graph you posted. So given the x axis is QB ratings, which depends a lot on completion rate and number of touchdowns, the most relevant variable to me that does not show up in the graph is the quality of your WR corps. Given that aggression is defined as throwing a pass with a defender within a yard of the receiver, to me the graph really might talk more about how good your WR corps is in competing for throws with a DB. Cinci has said this before and he's absolutely right: football has an big number of variables. To really get down into the weeds on anything, the type of stats one would have to use to show an effect is quite complex: I would defer to a true stats expert to handle the kind of deep dive needed. It involves something called multivariate analysis, and while I use stats a lot every day that level is beyond my understanding.

YOu understand the use and misuse of statistics because you have a background in the field. As do I. Many don't.

I look at Murphy like I do any other guy that was injured. Hope he comes back healthy and can play at his best level

It takes a lot at that stage to be sure. What area do you work in; I'm in reproductive medicine myself.

Glad to hear these. I don't think they've been flawless; the QB thing is one and I agree with many that the blowouts they've had are concerning right now. Yes, because I teach medical students including future neurosurgeons. And I work in a subspecialty medical field. The process winnows out the vast majority of those who can't cut it. I'm one of those who deals with that at the student level.

Some brain surgeons are, but very very very few. Because they get weeded out earlier in training. Same with the top tier of most any profession including coaching. Turnover is higher with coaches because expectations grow more unreasonable with time.

That's fairly obvious. You focus on the decisions you thought were bad. What decisions did you like?

Would you rather they acknowledge they made the mistake or not?

Dorsey was QB coach for the Panthers for several years and helped Newton's development. Many times great coaches are not the greatest players; they have to really spend time understanding the nuances of their craft to make up for lack of elite ability. I agree that Allen needs to work most on reads. That is the case with every young QB I have ever seen. That's because college is considerably different and it's comparing apples and oranges.

Thank you

Beane acknowledged after the season they messed up on that. They now have Allen as starter and Barkeley as backup. Mistakes get made, the key thing now is to correct them and learn from it. What else should be done now - should we take them out back and shoot them?

Let's see if Joseph makes the team first

Well said. When folks tell you that you should put them on ignore, it basically means they don't have a leg to stand on with their thought process.

Parse words all you want but you think McD's pride affected his decisions, and now you want to play word games instead of standing by your opinion. Did you not look at the above post. I own my opinions and when I am in error I say so. You don't do either.

The graph is a classic example of the risks of misusing stats. There are a whole host of variables that can affect this graph that are not detailed.

I have acknowledged where Allen needs to improve. You have confirmation bias and it is shown by how you pooh pooh the majority of moves made by the organization. I have taken grad level statistics classes and have asked you on several occasions questions about the data sets you look at for your pronouncements. Things like observer variance among others. You refuse to answer , much like you have here with confirmation bias. I think that's because you really don't understand stats, and cherry pick things and use your own observational bias to get the negative result you seek.

Are you familiar with the concept of confirmation bias?

Yep. And Beane admitted that.

I brought it up and so I looked back. I don't find the one I recalled from memory; I recall something from Kyle about it. McD stood up and said he did not regret the decision but did regret the result. And put Taylor back in as starter. So I can't say for sure he apologized. I can say if he was being driven by pride he would not have stood up and admitted he didn't like the result, and that starting Taylor the next week is likewise evidence of pride not driving decisions.