oldmanfan

First, your quote: Are you trying to discredit such a simple concept because it doesn’t yield the result you want it to? . So yes you did say I'm looking for a result. Yield the result you want it to. Your words. Second if you look at the denominator for the adjusted completion percentage it has things like throwaways, drops, and such. If you have WRs that can't get open as well as the next team, or a line that doesn't protect as well, then the denominator increases and the percentage decreases. And those are more on different parts of the offense other than the QB. So you could have a QB that has to throw the ball away more because of poor line play, and his ACP would be lower. In such a case the QB is making the smart play but his stat suffers. Thus the ACP to me may have usefulness as a team stat, but not a QB stat.

True. The question though is whether a stat is worth comparing. No. I think I understand what goes into the calculation. And for me some of the variables are more team related vs. QB related which is why I don't give it much relevance to assessing QBs. And quit telling me I'm looking for a specific result. I'm not. I would argue it's the opposite.

But it's not an equal comparison because there are a lot of variables between teams that in turn can affect the stat you're looking at, independent of the QBs actual play. I have had graduate level course work in stats. If you have as well then let's have an intelligent discourse on this. The fact that you have not responded to the difficulties with this stat despite my pointing them out several times indicates you don't understand statistical analysis. Prove to me you do and we can talk.

Yes I am. I don't think you understand the basis of statistical analysis correctly. You claimed I am using my argument to say everything is fine with Allen. Which I never said, and in fact I pointed out areas he needs to improve. You are the one being disingenuous here.

The questio was how does one know the value of adjusted completion rate if you don't compare between individuals. And my answer is simple: if the star has limited value if any, as I would suggest, then comparisons are meaningless. Yiu are correct that stats give you a sense of trends in a group and a basis for comparison, but when you oversimplify a stat and don't take into account the myriad of variables that affects said statistic then it becomes of little consequence. Have you ever designed a study? Figuring out and controlling variables is one of the key things you have to do before determining the value of what you're going to measure

I don't think adjusted completion rate is particularly useful to assess a QB. There are many variables such as protection that can lead to hurried throws, throwaways etc. that have nothing to do with a QBs performance. In fact, if you have a QB that throws it away instead of taking a sack his adjusted rate could be lower for doing the right thing. Where did I say it's fine? I have indicated where Allen needs to improve. And I can do that watching him without the benefit of an overinflated poorly constructed statistic.

Explain to me how comparing a first year QBs stats to a HOF QB with vastly more experience, with different receivers, different O line, coaching and all the other variables makes sense. I can watch Allen on the Bills last year, and I watched every play over his last three games, and I can tell you what he needs. He needs to make his reads more quickly, to get the game to slow down. He needs to improve his ball placement (which is more precision than accuracy) especially on shorter throws. He needs to improve his footwork throwing to the right. He needs better receivers and better protection. Prett much all these are what you'd expect from a young QB. Comparing him to a HOFer as if he should be at that level today is pointless and achieves nothing.

I get it. The people that misinterpret stats don't.

I look at the individual player. Allen has potential for a second year guy with things to learn. Comparing him to someone like a Brees is useless.

How can you compare when you have different offensive schemes with different receivers and different O lines with different protection abilities and different QBs with different levels of experience? People oversimplify stats all the time around here. Football is multivariate; any individual stat has to take a host of variants into the equation. Allen needs to learn more about reading defenses, taking the short throw, etc. A veteran like Brees has a higher percentage because of many factors. You want a stat that is truly mathematical? If a guy like Allen throws 30 passes and completes 2 more (rather than throws 2 away) he hits the 60% overall completion rate everyone keeps claiming is so critical.

Too bad.

Well, I could bring up Kemp vs. Lamonica. One constant in the history of Bills fans is the backup QB is always considered better than the starter. There were even some folks who wanted Reich over Kelly.

Always enjoyed his work. Hope he enjoys retirement.

It's possible if Singletary tears it up in camp. Very unlikely but possible. I don't think there's any any Gore leaves; I think they want him in the room with Allen to impart wisdom.

I recall those days vividly. John Rauch was a moron. Probably a good thing the Internet wasn't around then.

I hear you. I could be on here complaining about Joe Collier but not much point to that. Sometimes I think there should be some kind of statute of limitations on complaints

They made their choice. You have choices too.

Dareus is not better than Star. The old Dareus before he got the big money and decided not to put forth the effort was. And your comparison to teaching is completely bizarre - by law parents had to send their kids to your class. No NFL law says a team has to keep a player. As for Taylor and Peterman, if they would have kept Taylor it would have cost them tens of millions, knowing it was him keeping the seat warm till Allen took over. Did Peterson stink? Yes - one of the mysteries of all Bills history is why he showed well in practice and stunk in games. Beane admitted they should have gotten another veteran in earlier when they dumped McCarron (who showed nothing I his time with the Bills and broke his leg to boot). Yes, they made a mistake. Here's the thing you have to reconcile in your mind. The Bills have a plan they are carrying out. You don't like it. Fine, good for you. Criticize all you want, but at least have some logic to some of what you post. You don't like being criticized, but you open yourself up to it constantly. Last year had to do with the cap hit they took and the playing of rookies at the two main leadership positions on offense and defense. I agree they need to show improvement this year, but keep things in perspective.

We get where you're coming from. You don't like the approach they're taking, so everything they do is wrong. Which is fine, but you then lump the current management with previous regimes, talk about how Pegula is just money hungry and so on. You are not being crucified any more than the person you are criticizing (like me) is being criticized. So you may just want to get off your high horse. Some of the teams you mention (such as the Rams) have retooled, but to do so they are going all in on a fairly narrow window. When Goff gets his big payday, they are going to have to shed other guys at other positions, and they have traded away a lot of draft picks to load up for the window they now have. if that gets them a title, good for them. But long term they could be headed for trouble. Beane and McDermott have a different plan. They want to build something that is not only competitive but sustainable over the long term. To do that, one of the things Beane wanted to absolutely get control of was his cap situation. They did not want to be saddled with expensive cap hits for guys like Dareus or Watkins that they did not see as guys that would be part of the kind of sustained success they wanted. So they took the hit, and now they are in the position to use the cap dollars hey have on the guys they see as worth the $$. That is their plan. Yes, you may not like the plan, I get that. But let's see how the plan plays out. They now have their your leaders on both sides of the ball in Allen and Edmunds, and their continued development will be key. They have other fairly young solid pieces in guys like Milan, White (who is just as good if not better than Gilmore IMHO), Hyde and Poyer, Dawkins as examples. You wanted them to keep what Rex had put together? really? I'll give you Watkins, I would still like to have him. But Dareus? Taylor? Come on now.

And Star is the walrus

This is just too good.

Accuracy is different than precision. Look back through my older posts for an explanation or google the dartboard explanation.

Coaches have personal lives that should be out of bounds for this kind of commentary. No one knows what kind of hell he and his family have gone through. His coaching record is fair game though - I honestly don't get the love affair over him as a HC.

But Sammy hasn't exhibited that talent level consistently. I am not saying Jones is the same caliber athletically as Sammy. But he can be a good #2 or #3, yet folks here wanted to give up on him year one. Why is that? Why is it that when guys are on other teams they get the benefit of the doubt but when they have on a Bills uni they don't?

Cook was a very promising young Qb for the Bengals, whose career got short circuited by injury. Not surprising Brown didn't know him. Dennis Shaw on the other hand.....