oldmanfan

I totally agree with this. I guess we differ on the verb used. By playing he is learning, and we saw it Sunday. Better at going through progressions, better a taking the short completion, etc. I watched the first half again yesterday and he threw two inaccurate balls, one where he missed wide to Beasley and the one where he was too long to Zay. Other than that every throw (excluding throwaways and the second int with the tip) was right there. But the naysayers seem to have watched a different game. I cannot believe how many folks here and in the media talk about a terrible first half, how he was inaccurate, etc. Unlucky maybe, but terrible and inaccurate? No. Believe it or not but one person criticized the throw to Sweeney down the right sideline. That was an absolutely perfect throw. If people are going to criticize that then it's just silly.

Then don't. I think something bad happened, but we'll have to wait and see what the investigations tell us.

True to a degree. But I would argue that he should be aggressive more from the pocket on a throw like that, where he can get his feet set and really rifle the ball. On the play in question he was scrambling and threw awkwardly; he may have a big arm but you won't make that throw consistently into coverage under those circumstances. And in a tight ball game you don't want to give up points because of it. I am very high on Allen, just that he needs some refinement still, some balance between hero ball and Edwards ball. I think he'll figure it out. And

More than the number of games Allen has played. Go back and look at Manning and Aikman their rookie years. I'm not sure how old you are; I admit to being an old fart around here. But that also brings with it an appreciation of history. It used to be QBs got time to learn before being thrown into the fire. Now days with the Internet, 24/7 everything, drive through Starbucks, etc. the younger generation thinks everything should be the way they want right now. That's not the way playing QB in the NFL works, then or now.

McD gets criticized a lot around here for the culture thing, but I have never worked for a successful organization that did not have an established culture, a mindset by which the organization does its work. I have worked for problematic organizations who did not have that kind of mentality. To me when the players talk about playing Bill's football they are referring to the culture McD is establishing. That's a good thing.

I agree. But Allen has to learn his arm isn’t that good to try and make that throw when scrambling. DBs are too quick to the ball.

I believe I said we need to see what happens with the investigations, correct?

I have two daughters. I hear what happens to some of their friends. Not to the extent claimed in the AB case but I side on the womens’ side until proven wrong. The league has to look into this, as do the authorities. And we’ll see what happens.

Questionable decision on the first one, may have seen the penalty and took a free shot the second one. But guess what? You can call them picks all you want but they weren’t. should we say the two picks weren’t because they bounced off someone’s hand and luckily bounced into the hands of a Jet?

Not on the league or si websites?

I just rewatched the first half. taking away a couple throwaways, Allen missed two passes. One shirt to Beasley on the right side and the long throw down the left side to Jones (although the latter wasn’t so much a miss as putting it where only Jones could get it. Singletary dropped a ball, the called back pick was maybe an ill advised throw but right on target, and he threw one at Singletary’s feet when Morse got the illegal downfield penalty. Every other throw including the pick 6 was right on his targeted receiver. So he did not struggle. He had some lousy luck.

Both he and Mcdaniel are classic examples of coordinators who have no business trying to be head coaches.

There is no way Gase survives the N.Y. media.

One of the things that irritate me is that if you have a QB that takes the short throw a lot (Edwards??), folks clamor for him to take more shots downfield and they’ll be OK with interceptions. But then when you have a QB that takes those shots, nope. They should check it down more. That said, Allen needs to learn his arm isn’t strong enough to throw past NFL defenders when scrambling like that.

My apologies for being too strident. I am referring to opinions and not the person but I should tamp it down. It seems to me that some around here place unrealistic expectations on our QB. When a pass hits a WR right in the hands, and yet you blame the QB, that is unreasonable. The reason I ask if people watch the games is, if one does and really looks at each pass from this last game, Allen was right there on the vast majority of throws. Yet he still gets this inaccuracy stuff. I did the same for his last couple games last year as did others here and we agreed he was on target, his inaccuracy was overblown. If you watch the game from Sunday I would estimate over 80% of targeted throws (non-throwaways) were on target.. All offseason all we heard is his completion percentage being under 60%. Sunday was 65%, and what happens? Look for other things to pick on. You say he had a hand in four turnovers. That is far from saying he was responsible. Again when you hit an NFL WR in the hands it is not right to put it on him. When a guy tips a ball and it becomes a free for all that is a great play by the defender. And so on. I will refer you to my longer comments a page or two back. He made some mistakes as all young QBs fo. But it is becoming increasingly apparent to me that, for some, Allen will never be good enough. And I can only assume it’s because they were disappointed when he was drafted and refuse to have that opinion be altered.

We will simply have to disagree on the snap being where it needed to be. And it wasn’t Peterman.

Then what are they doing? People are explaining to you why their methods can be questioned, but you're not explaining what they want to accomplish with their site. When you use numbers to compare variables, that is statistical analysis by definition.

I will respectfully disagree. I have said here many times, and some disagree, that there is a difference between accuracy and precision. The pass that was the pick 6 is a perfect example. It was accurate, it hit the WR in the hands. Accuracy is how close you are to a given target, , and by any measure that pass was accurate. It could have been more precise, i.e. hitting a specific spot. Now from my measure that throw could have been maybe 4 inches more to the left. But I'm sorry, NFL WR's who get hit right in the hands (and the pass was low, where it should have been away from the defender) get paid to catch that pass. To somehow conflate that with some of the terrible Peterman picks is just looking to be overly negative, in my opinion. The bad snap. Snaps are between a C and QB. It looked to me (and to Gannon) that the snap was on the C. But again to place all the blame on Allen when, at the least, a poor snap involves both parties. The other pick. A tipped ball which is a crap shoot. And the other fumble that was on him as a said above. Three fo the four issues were not truly his, but if you watch the half objectively you see that the team was moving very well offensively, and some dumb luck and dumb penalties such as Feliciano kept them from scoring. Your conclusion that he was Petermanesque, that it was one of the worst halves of football ever by a Bills QB, and so on, is just over the top. I go back to 1960 with this team and there have been plenty of QBs that have had worse halves. If you can, go back and watch the replay, look at every throw he made, then tell me he was inaccurate and so on. If you're being objective you'll find he wasn't.

To me the issue with any such assessments is trying to put a quantitative assessment on qualitative data. Others have made very cogent points about the statistical limits inherent within the PFF analysis. The biggest to me is that you are relying from what Gunner says on one primary analyst to do the grading, then reviewed by whatever a lead person is. If I am reviewing a paper on scoring say tissue reactions to a given treatment (as I do commonly when reviewing scientific manuscripts), I need to see a measure of inter and intra-observer bias. Intra-observer bias = how reproducible is an individual's grade if you have him look at the same sample multiple times. Interobserver = how two or more different observers agree on the grade of an individual assessment. Without knowing that, without knowing the training of the observers, without understanding how they know or assume the specific role for a given player on a given play, I just don't see how this kind of information can be that useful. I wonder if the teams who subscribe are using it simply to compare to their own assessments, using it as a source of film for their use, et. If the numbers are not definitive then I'm not sure what the value is of them supplying the numbers they supply. I'm curious as to how you think teams should use this kind of data then.

This to me is way, way off base. I refer you to my previous post above, but to comment on stuff here I'm sorry, but when you hit an NFL receiver in the hands - in the hands- and he pops it up that is not a pick that is entirely on the QB. It simply is not, and claiming it is is just dumb. The fumble on the snap. Morse hiked the ball into himself it appeared; it is not a fumble if you never even touch the ball. The fumble on the sack entirely on Allen; he has to learn to take the sack and protect the ball. And the other pick was a deflection and it's a crap shoot when that occurs. To compare that half to Peterman, to claim it is one of the worst halves ever by a Bills QB, is so over the top it's ridiculous. Bad breaks are not poor performance. You ignore the fact that they were moving the ball down the field for most of the half is simply looking for reasons to be negative. You claim you want to see improvement in seeing receivers open downfield (checked, although he could get the ball out sooner sometimes), avoiding foreseeable interceptions (the throw to the corner where it should have been picked is a throw he can't make-see my commentary above), improved accuracy (anyone who watched that game and can't see how accurate he was is either blind or refuses to see), better decision making (he went through progressions and di throw it way more - even Gannon commented on how he was doing that). So for the most part he showed improvement in the areas you wanted to see, and that makes him Petermanesque??? The kid did a lot more good than bad the other day. He did some bad things, he'll continue to do some bad things as young QBs do, but hopefully at much lower frequencies. Yet some around here want to apparently crucify the kid for reasons that remain a mystery.

Why do we say this. Because you're being ridiculous. See my post above, and then see what you wrote here. You claim he made way to many mistakes and then cite ONE PASS. Do this. go back and actually watch the game. Go back and chart each throw, hen tell me he made way too many mistakes. Tell me he was inaccurate. If you do, it will confirm you simply want to slam the kid for no reason.

First things first. For the life of me I have no idea why or how Michael Lombardi has been elevated to some kind of NFL savant. Second, for any of these articles that show up, either positive or negative, the first question that should come to mind is this: did you actually watch the game? Not just highlights, not just looked at the box score, but did you actually watch the entire game? If you actually watched the game, and if you are truly interested in an objective evaluation of Allen as opposed to showing your confirmation bias (i.e. you have already decided he is either inaccurate, careless, clueless or all the above), then this is what you would have seen. Allen unlike last year stayed in the pocket for the most part and went through his progressions, unlike last year when he was running for his life, and sometimes doing that prematurely. If you actually watched his passes you will see that he was very accurate, delivered the ball right where he wanted. On the pick 6, he knew he had to protect Beasley by coming in low, and he did. It may have been 4 inches outside, but when you hit an NFL WR in the hands they normally catch the ball and don't bounce it straight up into a defender's hands. He also did a good job for the most part (exception below) throwing it away instead of trying to be a hero when he needed to do so. So from a read and accuracy perspective Allen looked much improved the other day. Now as for negatives, he still thinks his arm strength can let him get away with things he can't get away with in the NFL. The almost pick down near the goal line was a classic example. He is scrambling and while on the run tried to hit Brown, and should have been picked. He has to learn you can't do that in the NFL. As for the other pick nullified by penalty, took a shot into double coverage; also not well advised but after watching the replay last night I think it's very possible he saw the flag and/or penalty and took a free shot knowing he had one. As for the fumbles, one was not him - it is not a fumble of your part if you never touch the ball. The one on the sack he has to learn to just wrap the ball up and take the sack. He is a young QB, he is going to by definition do some dumb things. What you hope is that with experience the frequency of dumb things declines. But we should all fully expect as the season goes along to have moments where we scream at the field or TV NOOOOOOOO when he make a dumb decision. That is called learning, my friends. So what I saw, and anyone who actually watched the game should have seen, is a young QB figuring it out. You should have seen progress in his reads and in standing in the pocket delivering accurate passes. You should have seen the impertinence of youth at times. But you would only see this if you actually watched the game. Which is what makes the commentator stuff so maddening, because you know some guys either don't watch, or refuse to let their eyes change their opinions. The guy on mad dog sports from 6-10, don't know his name but I listened for a bit while in the car last night. And he said that you could ignore the bad game Mayfield had Sunday, because he clearly is the best of the 4 first round Bs from last year. That Jackson because of his game is the second best. And Allen, despite the moxie coming back, despite showing well all game? According to him he's the worst of the four and will never change. When you hear this kind of stuff, when you see sites like the PFF drivel saying he and Singletary were rated poor, just ignore them, good or bad. They have agendas and refuse to let data change them.

I don’t place any stock in this pff stuff good or bad. But my eye test tells me Oliver looked pretty good for his first NFL game.

Don’t care about these at all.

I usually don’t like to bring up my past posts to avoid seeming boastful, but in a thread before the season I indicated I wasn’t worried about the Jets because they have Gase as their HC. Some guys top out as coordinators and have no business being a HC. Gase is a prime example.