BillsFan4

Weren't both Carr and Wilson drafted after the change to the collective bargaining agreement (in 2011 IIRC)? And I can't imagine a team passing on Drew Brees high in the draft just because they didn't want to pay him what rookie contracts were going for... most likely he fell to the 2nd because of his height and perceived ceiling in the NFL. Drafting a QB is a total crap shoot. I agree though, chances are better in the top 2, which is where we need to get if we want one of the top 2 QBs. The only thing the Jets did was guarantee themselves the 3rd QB off the board. The 3rd QB off the board is absolutely no guarantee that they will get a great QB. What are the odds that the 3rd QB drafted in a given year is a great, franchise changing QB? And one that will be THAT much better than a QB taken later? I bet the odds are not that astronomically different that the 3rd QB off the board will be somewhat similar to the 4th/5th etc. Also, If the Bills spend all their ammo getting to 3, we may not have had anything left to get to #2. I dont agree that that we should have tanked this season though. You can't attempt to change a broken, losing culture by tanking. And if McDermott and Beane would have tanked in their very first year here, how do they ever gain credibility or buy-in in the locker room? Anyway, Its just not realistic to expect 2 guys who worked for the last 20 years to earn their positions (GM and Head Coach), to just tank and throw away a season their rookie year on the job. How do you force NFL players to tank anyway? By "the outcome was expected" do you mean their playoff loss? If so I agree. But if you're saying that the playoffs were expected I disagree. Most had the Bills as one of the bottom 3-4 teams in the NFL. Most seemed to think we were tanking... I'm not even sure Beane or McDermott planned on making the playoffs last year. They likely thought they'd be sitting higher in the draft I bet... It seems to me that McDermott and Beane have been playing the long term game since they got here. But you can only control what you can control. Look, I am all for trading to #2 and getting our QB. But I am not going to act like its the end of the world if that doesn't happen. Unfortunately it may not be in the cards this year, and if it's not I am not going to lose all hope of the Bills finding their franchise QB. I mean, Beane hasn't even had a single draft with the Bills yet. Not every GM can land their franchise QB in their 1st draft... And im certainly not going to regret breaking the playoff drought last season.

Plus, when you look at the draft value chart and what the Jets gave up in points to get from #6 to #3, and what we would have had to trade to beat that... You're probably looking at giving up all 6 of our top picks, or all 5 of our top 65 picks + a 2nd or even 1st next year, only to be guaranteed the 3rd best QB in this draft. And it seems that the Colts obviously valued one of the blue chip prospects in this draft pretty highly... so who knows what it would have taken. Will the 3rd best QB in this draft be guaranteed to be THAT much better than say the 4th or 5th QB off the board that you surround with 5 more top 90 picks? And have an actual good overall team?

And you know for 100% sure now that the Bills won't get a good QB just because the Jets traded to #3? What id the #3 pick only gets you the 3rd QB off the board this year and that QB doesn't end up being worth trading the farm for? What if in the long run we end up with just as good (or better) a QB at 12? Is the 2nd or 3rd best QB off the board ALWAYS better than the 3rd/4th/5th? What if we we end up with a Carr/Brees/Wilson etc? Oh, and Sorry but i dont see making the playoffs and not tanking a seaosn season as a bad take... I see it as something I've been waiting 17 years for! And I see it as a good sign that we finally have the right front office and coaching staff in place.

Or maybe they did try to get to #3 and the Colts took the Jets offer instead. Ballard said they were in discussions with other QB needy teams and they decided to take this deal because they felt they'd still get a blue chip prospect at #6.

And the playoff drought would have hit 18 years. Ill take the playoffs!

Yeah I just had a somewhat similar thought -

What if the Jets did all of this - gave up the #6 overall pick PLUS 3 more top 50 picks -for the 3rd best QB in this draft class (Mayfleid/Allen etc)? The only thing they did with this move is guarantee that they get the 3rd QB off the board (with a possibility at the 2nd QB off the board). Is anyone totally convinced that the 3rd best QB in this draft is worth 4 top 50 picks? I sure am not. What if the Bills sold the farm to get to #3, only to be left with both our top 2 QBs off the board at 1 and 2? I am far from convinced that QB #3 in this draft is worth everything it would have taken for us to get to the 3rd overall pick (figure at least 2800 draft points, if not more since we were at 12, not 6 and the Colts still get a blue chip guy at 6). #2 or bust!

So am I. But this stuff is all out all out of our control. Let's wait and see what happens. We could still trade to #2, or if not to #5, 6 etc. to grab a guy like Mayfield or Allen. Or we take Rudolph at 12 or 22. Or White/Lauletta/Falk etc in the 2nd. This is is a very deep looking QB draft class. They will draft a guy in the first 2 rounds (and most likely in the 1st IMO), I am almost positive on that. Who knows, we could end up with one of the best QBs in this draft. Drafting college QBs is such a crap shoot. There is no guarantee that Rosen ends up better than one of the 2nd tier guys (even though I REALLY want Rosen!). I'm just saying that you have to wait and let things play out. Let's see who the best QB is 2-3 years from now before we burn Beane at the stake! From what we've seen so far IMO Beane and McDermott look to be the bes front office staff we've had since Polian. I'm not anywhere near ready to write them off yet even if they don't get their franchise QB this year. I really really hope they do, but it's not the end of the world if not. They WILL take a shot on a QB this year, that I know. There's nothing Beane can do if the Colts chose the Jets offer over the Bills (if that's what happened). And it could actually work work out better for us if we now trade to #2 instead of #3. How much would it have sucked to trad to #3 and then have the Jets or some other team jump up to #2 and leave our 3rd choice at QB after paying a fortune?

How can you possibly say this yet? Beane hasn't even had one freaking draft as the Bills GM! Also, Chris Ballard (Colts GM) said he was in talks with other QB needy teams and decided to take the Jets offer because he felt comfortable that they would still get one of their top rated players at #6. So how do you know Beane didn't make a good offer for that pick and the Colts just chose the Jets offer? You seem to have already written this staff off before their first draft just because they haven't traded up for a QB 6 weeks before the draft even happens.

I don't even know if that's enough to get to #2 at this point when you look at what the Jets gave up to move from #6 to #3... That definitely wouldn't be enough to get to #1 though. The Jets gave up 2800 points on the draft value chart to get to the #3 pick which is valued at 2200 points. They gave up almost 2600 points in picks just this year, plus the 2nd next year. To equal that, It would take both 1sts, both 2nds, our highest 3rd this year plus a 2nd next year to get to #2.

He just scored 4 goals against the Flames! https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/16/kanes-four-goal-game-charges-sharks-to-victory-over-flames/ As of now, it has to be looking pretty good for San Jose to re-sign him IMO. Sure hope they do... I want that 1st rounder! lol

Thanks. Yeah I've heard the talent thing, but Rudolph seems to have done way more with the talent he had compared to EJ.

They very well still could target him at #22, and have one of the top 2 LB's as their target at 12. Beane talked about how they felt there was a much better shot at one of the top players on the board at 12 (and i believe he said specifically not just QBs)

He very well could be. To be honest, I really didn't watch a ton of Rudolph, but from the little I watched and from comparing their college stats (which I know doesn't tell the whole story BTW) I don't fully get the comparison to EJ Manuel. Rudolph's 3rd best college season is better than EJ's best season. And Rudolph's 2 best seasons blow EJs best year out of the water... https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mason-rudolph-1.html https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ej-manuel-1.html can someone explain to me why they think it's just EJ Manuel 2.0? (I am legitimately asking)

I know you did. I was just looking at the extra draft points the Jets gave up just this year alone, which is 340. For us to do that same thing - 340 extra points this year - it would take our two 1's, two 2's and highest 3. Maybe they value a 1 next year higher than all those picks this year? Everyone always says the pick next next year is worth 1 round lower in value though. So I never know exactly how to value them. Which is why I was mainly looking at what the Jets gave up in value this year alone. Colts #3 = 2200 Jets #6 (1600) + #37 (530) + #49 (410) = 2540 + whatever value their #2 next year has Anyway... I am not a GM. So obviously I am just giving my best guess here after looking at the Jets trade. I like your potential trade cost better than mine, so I'll go with yours for now! lol

Nah, it's not high enough IMO. My guess - Darnold goes #1 Rosen goes #3 (or #2 if the Giants trade their pick) Mayfield goes #5 to Broncos (athey seem very high in him) If some other team trades to #2, then it could go Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield 1,2,3. In that scenario Then likely Allen goes #5 to the Broncos.

That's not enough draft value points when looking at what the Jets just paid. Jets gave up 3 picks in the top 47 of this draft to move up 3 spots, plus a 2nd next year. They overpaid by 340 points this year + a (likely to be high) 2nd next year. Both 1sts, both 2nds and (probably our highest) 3rd + a pick next year is the minimum IMO. and I would probably still do that trade anyway! I think getting one of the top 2 QBs this year would be worth it.

If that's all it took, I'd do it for sure. But looking at what the Jets gave up - Their 1st this year, two 2nds this year and a 2nd next year. Their 1st was worth 1600 points. The Colts was worth 2200. They gave up 2540 points in picks this year (so 340 extra points in picks this year) + whatever you value the 2nd at next year. The Giants pick is worth 2600. What you suggested - - both 1sts (1980 points total) - our highest 2nd (370 points = 2350 total) - our highest 3rd (265 points = 2615 total) Just looking at the Jets trade, I think it will take more points in picks this year. Thats why I said I thought it'd take both 1sts, both 2nds, both 3rds, since that is close to the same 400 extra points in picks the Jets gave up this year. I think you ar at least looking at both 1sts, both 2nds, and our highest 3rd (which would = 2955 which is about = to what the Jets gave up in picks this year) plus another pick next year.

So, just looking at this more - If you assume getting the #2 pick will take at least the same 600 point overpayment to get... The #2 pick is worth 2600 If The Bills gave up both 1sts, both 2nds, and both 3rds that = 3071, which is only 471 extra points. So so if we have to get to 600 extra draft points, you are easily talking at least a 2019 2nd on top of two 1's, two 2's and two 3's this year... I just don't see Beane doing that. It was probably never all that realistic this year anyway, with the QB demand this draft. Im not gonna lie, I am bummed. But I really don't think we ar trading up to #2.

#3 pick is valued at 2200. Jets gave up just about 2800 points in draft picks (depending on what value you assign the 2019 2nd. I valued it at roughly 200 points). They gave up about (roughly) 600 extra draft points (again depending on how you value that 2019 2nd) to move up 3 picks! Think about what it's going to take to move up form 12 to 2. I honestly don't think it's going to happen guys.

Yup. They had a ton of people at Rosen's pro day. Darnold #1 Rosen #3 (unless someone trades up to #2, and that could end up being the Jets, too). Mayfield #5 Maybe we get really lucky and the Jets fall in love with Allen... lol

I thought he also said something about how there will be a 2nd wave of players that become available as they are cut in May/June/July and how he wanted to save some money for that (and for injuries etc).

Well, at least he didn't go to the Patriots!

Yes, they can roll over any unused cap space from year to year. Thats partly how teams like the Browns and 49ers ended up with a salary cap of like $236M this year (when the cap is $177M). They just have to spend at least 89% of the cap over a 4yr period.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ravens-chase-michael-crabtree-after-29m-man-ryan-grant-reportedly-fails-physical/ Ryan Grant fails physical with Ravens, they will now chase Crabtree. Makes me wonder if the Ravens came to their senses and maybe found a reason to fail him, especially when they seen Crabtree hit the market. I dont think Grant has missed a single game in his 4yrs in the league. I'll be curious to see if the reason he failed comes out... I thought $29M for Ryan Grant, who has a total of 84 receptions for 984yds (in his 4 year career!) was insane anyway.