BillsFan4

Or it makes the Jets look reckless. They havent even had a chance to bring any of these QBs in for a visit, sit with them extensively and work them out privately. They've met them for 15 mins each at the combine. They are said to be comfortable with any of the top 4 QBs in this draft (and clearly any of the top 3 since they traded to 3 and may only get the 3rd QB off the board). That sounds like a team willing to randomly throw a dart at one of the QBs this year and hope it sticks. Give me me a calculating GM who thoroughly vets all his possible QB prospects before trading away the farm for the most important position on the field and a guy you want to be the face of your franchise for the next decade plus.

Maybe the better question is - Were the Jets too reckless in trading up right now? They gave up a whole lot to only guarantee themselves the 3rd QB off the board. They haven't even attended all the QBs pro days yet, or had ANY of the QBs in for a visit and private workout. They haven't had a chance yet to sit down with these QBs and talk extensively. As far as I know, they've only met with each for 15 mins at the combine. From the sounds of it (MMQB article), the Jets decided to go all in on this QB draft last year. MacCagnan sold Woody Johnson on doing whatever it took to get 1 of the top 4 QBs this year. They are supposedly comfortable with any of the top 4 (which is reckless in itself IMO). That makes me think they did try and tank this season like many suspected. IMO That also sounds like the GM's job probably depends on getting a top QB from this draft. If thats the case, it's not usually a good thing to try and go toe to toe with a guy recklessly doing whatever it takes to get a top 4 QB this year because his job may depend on it. Or at best, it sounds like a GM who is perfectly comfortable just throwing a dart at 1 of 4 random QBs and hoping he hits. Id rather have a more calculating GM who is going to really think out his moves and make sure he's 100% comfortable with trading the farm for a specific QB.

You are forgetting that if we don't trade up we have 5 picks in the top 65 and 6 in top top 90 to fill a bunch of holes on this team. If they hit on this draft like they did last year's, that could fill a lot of holes quite solidly. Also, AJ McCarron has a pretty low turnover rate in his career, too. He threw 5, 3 and 7 int's in his 3 respective college seasons, and 2 int's in pass 133 attempts in the NFL (which is obviously a very small sample size). For comparison, Tyrod threw 2 int's in 35 attempts in his Baltimore career before coming to Buffalo. And Tyrod threw a very similar amount of int's per season in college (3, 7, 5, 5) All I am saying is that it is not out of the realm of possibilities that we plug a bunch of holes in the draft, giving us a stronger overall team than last year, and McCarron, who was a much more accomplished college QB than Tyrod, was drafted in a similar spot (AJ in the 5th vs Tyrod in the 6th), and sat on the bench learning for the same 4 years TT did, could come in and play as well as Tyrod did here. Or maybe even better, especially as far as the passing game is concerned.

Exactly. People are acting like just because we didn't trade to #3 the Bills have no chance of finding a franchise QB anymore. It's ridiculous. We could very well take a QB at 12 or 22 or even 53/56/65 and he could turn out to be better than whatever QB is taken at 3. We have no idea until it all plays out in a few years. Everyone seems to think any one of the top 3 QBs this year are can't miss. I don't see it that way. I see the top 2 (Darnold/Rosen) as the 2 most sure bets, and all the rest as a crap shoot. Even Darnold and Rosen are a crap shoot. There isn't any can't miss QBs this year. There are some very enticing prospects, but the real strength of this QB draft is in its depth. I don't think the difference between Mayfield/Allen and Rudolph/Jackson/White/Lauletta etc is FOUR top 49 picks... (and it would have actually cost the Bills even more than what the Jets gave up - likely 2 1sts, 2 2nds and a 3rd) Very well could be. I had been really hoping for Rosen/Darnold. But Id take a shot on Allen at 12. Hes definitely boom or bust, but man if he hits you are set! His ceiling is sky high IMO. Im pretty open to whatever QB we draft at this point. I'll trust Beane and co., who are paid big bucks to do this for a living, over my own amateur tv and YouTube scouting.

I don't see this as true. I think Cleveland was likely taking a QB at 1 all along. Jimmy Haslam gave John Dorsey the mandate to find a franchise QB no matter what, ans he said this to the media. He said it was Dorsey's #1 priority. And even in your scenario where the Browns pass on a QB at one - if the Bills had traded to 3 instead of the Jets, that would still force Cleveland's hand the exact same way the Jets trade did. Worse yet, it may have forced another team's hand in a trade to #2, leaving the Bills with the 3rd QB off the board after giving up a giant haul of picks. The #3 pick was always in play. The Colts had planned on trading down all offseason. If it wasn't the Jets, it would have been someone else. Our best chance at our QB has always been a trade to the #2 pick. The way I feel, only the top 2 QBs this year are worth trading a draft's worth of picks for. I'd rather give up more and guarantee that we get one of those 2 QBs than to give up most of our draft capital to trade to 3 and then miss out on both of those top QBs. Herea another scenario - a Cleveland takes Darnold at 1. Giants take Barkley at 2. Jets take Allen at 3, leaving Rosen at 4. We trade up with Cleveland and save ourselves some picks. Or our target is Mayfield, he slips past 5 and we trade with a team around 6-9 and save even more. There are still lots of potential scenarios that could play out. It's not all doom and gloom...

I figure we'd have to offer something like both 1sts, both 2nds and our lower 3rd this year to match the Jets offer. Then add in the Colts going from 3 to 12, instead of 3 to 6, and you're probably going to have to sweeten the pot a little more. And that is only to guarantee yourself the 3rd QB off the board. It's not a guarantee of getting one of the top 2 QBs. I have a hard time believeing the 3rd QB off the board this year is worth all that.

You forgot to add in the Jets 2nd round pick next year.

I don't think 12, 22 and a 2019 1st would be anywhere near enough to get to #2. Not when you look at the draft value charts, and especially what the Jets just gave up. The #2 pick is worth 2600. Our two 1sts this year are worth 1980. Picks in next year's draft are said to be worth 1 round lower - so a 1st is worth a 2nd - so somewhere between 270 and 580 points. So say 425 points which is the middle. 1980 + 425 = 2405. We are still 200 points short of giving them back equal value. They will want more than equal value. The Jets gave up 600 extra draft points to move up 3 spots, and the Colts only moved back to 6. What do you think it'll tak to move up from 12 to 2? My best guess when looking at the draft pick value charts is this - both 1sts, both 2nds, both 3rds this year = 3071 points. Which is 471 extra points. Jets gave up roughly 600 extra draft points, and most all of those draft points are in this year's draft (1st and 2 of the 3 2nds). So you probably have to add in a 2nd next year. So the final trade would look like (to give similar value to what the Jets just gave) - Two 1sts Two 2nds Two 3rds this year + 2nd next year for #2 this year. Maybe you can keep a couple picks this year if you're willing to give up a couple picks next year. But the Giants might want back picks that are 1 round higher if we push them off to next year (so to keep a 2nd this year it'll cost a 1st next year or something like that). https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=BUF feel free to play around with the values yourselves. The link above is the draft value chart. And here's another supposed updated version. Both come out with about the same cost for the Bills when looking at the Jets trade up. https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

I've said for months now that it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Josh Allen was the guy that Maccagnan really wanted, and who the Jets targeted in the draft. After all, Maccagnan is the guy who fell in love with Christian Hackenberg... And Allen does somewhat remind me of Hackenberg in numerous ways - Both are the prototypical sized QB you look for. Allen is 6'5", Hack is 6'4". Both have big hands. Both have very strong arms. Both struggled with their accuracy at times while flashing elite potential at others. both have very similar stats their draft year - both threw 16 TDs and 6 int., had similar comp. %'s, y/a and QB ratings. And both are big time boom or bust prospects. If you hit on either, you're set. Their ceiling is very enticing... Hack was a big reach at the top of the 2nd and Allen (IMO) would be a reach at 3. It could happen! Ultimately, I think moving to #3 could have also altered their target a bit. They could have thought Allen was their best shot at 6, but now think they have a shot at the top 2 QBs. So I think it could depend on what happens at 1 and 2. I think they may have a hard time passing on Rosen if he's still on the board. Although, just a thought on Rosen/Jets - is there any possible way Woody Johnson would nix a Rosen pick? With Johnson being good friends with Trump and appointed an ambassador by him? I highly doubt it would factor in in any way, but hey it sure would be nice if they passed on him for such a dumb reason like that, right?!

So far we know that 1 poster was actually serious in his yes vote, and about 3 or 4 others voted yes just because they thought the question was ridiculous. What about the rest of you "yes" voters? Anyone else willing to admit they were serious with their yes vote? lol Yup, Beane should definitely be fired 6 weeks before his first draft here, since he was not able to control the actions of 2 other NFL GMs. And since the Jets trading to 3 clearly makes it impossible for Beane to ever land his franchise QB... may as well move on to the next GM now. We need to hire us a Jedi, so he can mind trick em! Or, being more realistic, maybe some kind of spy from a government agency who can capture all these other GMs and give them heavy doses of LSD for months on end until they are brainwashed into doing what we want. ? I mean, We obviously need a GM who can control the actions of every other GM around the NFL, and can solve our franchise QB problem long before his first draft as the Bills GM, right! Come on Pegula, what are you doing?

Or the Giants are just not willing to trade with the Jets? Have those 2 teams ever traded with each other? I can't think of a single one, and couldn't find one when I tried to doduble check on google.

Or maybe this 2018 draft is like the last draft where 3 QBs went off the board at 1, 2, 3 - 1999. and two of the top 3 end up being like Tim Couch and Akili Smith. lol

For sure. Teams havent even finished vetting this QB class yet. There are Still more pro days, and visits to team facilities + private workouts haven't happened yet. I would guess most teams teams aren't comfortable enough to sell the farm for a QB in this draft yet. Had they waited, they probably could have gotten a better offer like you said.

It sounds like the Colts did have other comparable offers but chose to go with the Jets offer because Ballard said he can still get a blue chip prospect at #6. This was actually a pretty reckless move by the Jets when you think about it. They haven't even had a chance to meet with all the top QB prospects for more than 15 minutes yet. And all they did was guarantee that they can get the 3rd QB off the board. Four top 50 picks for possibly the 3rd QB in this draft, who they may not have even met with extensively yet or attended his pro day (if it's Mayfield/Allen)... ? They havent even had any of of these QBs in for a visit yet! Or done private workouts.... (that I'm aware of)

I dont, sorry. Im not even sure if you can make polls public here. Maybe someone else here can answer?

Is there any way to make it a public poll so we can see who voted yes? ?

I thought you were implying that they SHOULD be fired. I apologize that I mistook your poll. My bad.

Yes, he should be fired before he's even had 1 freaking draft with the Bills. Especially after breaking that 17 year playoff drought. If he hasn't landed his franchise QB 6 weeks before his first ever draft with the Bills, he should absolutely be fired!

Weren't both Carr and Wilson drafted after the change to the collective bargaining agreement (in 2011 IIRC)? And I can't imagine a team passing on Drew Brees high in the draft just because they didn't want to pay him what rookie contracts were going for... most likely he fell to the 2nd because of his height and perceived ceiling in the NFL. Drafting a QB is a total crap shoot. I agree though, chances are better in the top 2, which is where we need to get if we want one of the top 2 QBs. The only thing the Jets did was guarantee themselves the 3rd QB off the board. The 3rd QB off the board is absolutely no guarantee that they will get a great QB. What are the odds that the 3rd QB drafted in a given year is a great, franchise changing QB? And one that will be THAT much better than a QB taken later? I bet the odds are not that astronomically different that the 3rd QB off the board will be somewhat similar to the 4th/5th etc. Also, If the Bills spend all their ammo getting to 3, we may not have had anything left to get to #2. I dont agree that that we should have tanked this season though. You can't attempt to change a broken, losing culture by tanking. And if McDermott and Beane would have tanked in their very first year here, how do they ever gain credibility or buy-in in the locker room? Anyway, Its just not realistic to expect 2 guys who worked for the last 20 years to earn their positions (GM and Head Coach), to just tank and throw away a season their rookie year on the job. How do you force NFL players to tank anyway? By "the outcome was expected" do you mean their playoff loss? If so I agree. But if you're saying that the playoffs were expected I disagree. Most had the Bills as one of the bottom 3-4 teams in the NFL. Most seemed to think we were tanking... I'm not even sure Beane or McDermott planned on making the playoffs last year. They likely thought they'd be sitting higher in the draft I bet... It seems to me that McDermott and Beane have been playing the long term game since they got here. But you can only control what you can control. Look, I am all for trading to #2 and getting our QB. But I am not going to act like its the end of the world if that doesn't happen. Unfortunately it may not be in the cards this year, and if it's not I am not going to lose all hope of the Bills finding their franchise QB. I mean, Beane hasn't even had a single draft with the Bills yet. Not every GM can land their franchise QB in their 1st draft... And im certainly not going to regret breaking the playoff drought last season.

Plus, when you look at the draft value chart and what the Jets gave up in points to get from #6 to #3, and what we would have had to trade to beat that... You're probably looking at giving up all 6 of our top picks, or all 5 of our top 65 picks + a 2nd or even 1st next year, only to be guaranteed the 3rd best QB in this draft. And it seems that the Colts obviously valued one of the blue chip prospects in this draft pretty highly... so who knows what it would have taken. Will the 3rd best QB in this draft be guaranteed to be THAT much better than say the 4th or 5th QB off the board that you surround with 5 more top 90 picks? And have an actual good overall team?

And you know for 100% sure now that the Bills won't get a good QB just because the Jets traded to #3? What id the #3 pick only gets you the 3rd QB off the board this year and that QB doesn't end up being worth trading the farm for? What if in the long run we end up with just as good (or better) a QB at 12? Is the 2nd or 3rd best QB off the board ALWAYS better than the 3rd/4th/5th? What if we we end up with a Carr/Brees/Wilson etc? Oh, and Sorry but i dont see making the playoffs and not tanking a seaosn season as a bad take... I see it as something I've been waiting 17 years for! And I see it as a good sign that we finally have the right front office and coaching staff in place.

Or maybe they did try to get to #3 and the Colts took the Jets offer instead. Ballard said they were in discussions with other QB needy teams and they decided to take this deal because they felt they'd still get a blue chip prospect at #6.

And the playoff drought would have hit 18 years. Ill take the playoffs!

Yeah I just had a somewhat similar thought -

What if the Jets did all of this - gave up the #6 overall pick PLUS 3 more top 50 picks -for the 3rd best QB in this draft class (Mayfleid/Allen etc)? The only thing they did with this move is guarantee that they get the 3rd QB off the board (with a possibility at the 2nd QB off the board). Is anyone totally convinced that the 3rd best QB in this draft is worth 4 top 50 picks? I sure am not. What if the Bills sold the farm to get to #3, only to be left with both our top 2 QBs off the board at 1 and 2? I am far from convinced that QB #3 in this draft is worth everything it would have taken for us to get to the 3rd overall pick (figure at least 2800 draft points, if not more since we were at 12, not 6 and the Colts still get a blue chip guy at 6). #2 or bust!