HappyDays

It really isn't an overpay, unless all FA deals are overpays (which may be true). This is just the going rate for a quality WR3. Unfortunately it doesn't look like a WR1 is coming, the market just isn't there and we missed out on Metcalf. They'll have to look to the draft unless a surprise trade is coming.

Extending Spencer Brown last offseason ends up being a huge win for Beane. He could have gotten $100M this offseason, seriously.

I'm kind of meh on Sweat, but also I can't really pick anyone out in FA that I would feel great about. We opened up all this money and it happens to coincide with a particularly weak FA class. I'm still crossing my fingers for a trade for a difference maker. Hendrickson or some mystery player that hasn't been reported to be on the block.

That is crazy crazy money for someone that played 29% of snaps last year. A career backup that they're paying quality starter money to.

Right. So how does giving big extensions to two players that were part of that failure help us reach our goal? We're just maintaining the status quo which you admitted wasn't good enough. In my desired outcome we wouldn't be maintaining, we'd be adding in a big way. Honestly man I disagree with almost every sentence of your post, we are just very far apart in our thoughts on this subject. And that's fine. I appreciate you laying out your thoughts. We'll see if Beane made the right decisions. My prediction is that by mid-October we'll again be monitoring the market for a desperation WR trade and the defense will be underperforming.

I haven't said he is. But certainly he is a significantly better player than anyone we've extended this offseason. That's not debatable. Metcalf is a household name and someone you build your offense around. Rousseau is a piece. We're talking about a true #1 vs a #2. The $10M difference in their AAV reflects this. I'm just speaking for myself here. I wanted nothing to do with giving Edmunds a 2nd contract. If the insinuation is that I'm reactionary and/or critical of any move the Bills make, that's not the case at all. But I have been critical of Beane's resource management in two areas - overprioritizing solid players at the expense of great players, and underprioritizing pass catchers. This weekend's moves (and lack thereof) is right at the centerpoint of those criticisms. So yes I am very disappointed and concerned about this team's ability to go further in the playoffs. The worst part is I don't see any potential moves left. Adams is signed, Higgins is franchised. The fanbase is already talking themselves into Darius Slayton or Josh Palmer. Those are band-aid moves, not needle movers. Trading for Hendrickson is the one big needle mover still out there but even then the pass catching talent would still be severely lacking and there's not likely to be immediate solutions coming in the draft.

You have it backwards. We're taking two solid players over one great player. The respective contract AAVs speak for themselves. I have zero concerns about Beane's ability to find solid players. I have big concerns about his ability to find true game changers. So to me taking the one game changer over two solid players is a no brainer.

I would have been fine drafting DL with each of our first two picks in this draft. That's still a fairly likely outcome even after extending Rousseau and despite having gaping holes in the WR room. At MLB you figure it out as you go. Of course I could ask the same question to you about WR. Your solution is Josh Palmer and a random draft pick. That would mean we enter 2025 with a worse WR room than we ended 2024. We'd have arguably a worse version of the Chargers offense last year depending on how Coleman develops. I don't know man, that's not really a solution, it's a temporary bridge.

Neither will Metcalf's. That's how all these contracts are structured. Notice how we haven't even seen the guaranteed money for his new deal with Pittsburgh yet. Every time we give a big extension to our own players I'm told "ignore the reported number." But when we miss out on another player I'm told "wow the reported number is way too expensive." Personally I would trade Rousseau and Bernard in 2026 for Metcalf now. And yes I understand it's not exactly that simple but that is effectively what the numbers work out to be. Like I said I really hope I'm wrong. I'm not rooting against the team. I just see a consistent pattern of the same mistake made by this front office and to me this is the latest example of that mistake. If you disagree, that's fine. We'll see if the defensive players perform up to their contract values and if the WR room is good enough. I respect that. I very strongly disagree but at least you're accepting that the trade off is real.

It's just math. Beane has to be right about these decisions. Historically he has not been right about the contracts he's given out. I hope my opinion on this is wrong of course. I would love nothing more than for Rousseau to take a big step and for Beane to get the WR room right.

So there you go, Rousseau's contract officially hurt us from getting Metcalf. Rousseau + Bernard = $32.5M AAV. Metcalf got $30M AAV. These extensions don't happen in a vacuum. They have a measurable impact on our ability to add game changers.

It's $30M AAV, exactly what was reported. Nothing about the trade compensation or the money is shocking. This was the known asking price. Rousseau plus Bernard's AAV more than makes up for it. Beane chose the two solid players over the one great player. That decision is emblematic of his strategy in general and it hasn't gotten us over the hump.

Like I said in the previous thread this is a massive massive discount. He could have gotten $65M or even $70M AAV. Hopefully Beane knows how big this discount is and uses it appropriately.

Whelp there you go. The cold weather excuse is gone. We didn't make this trade because Beane didn't want to. And if our outside WRs struggle as badly as they did last year, this will be the latest example of him failing to add to the room. I really hope he has some kind of plan.

Right. And Seattle fired their OC.

Most likely scenarios in my mind are Metcalf, Hendrickson, or somewhat less exciting would be a big Allen extension which I also anticipate happening this offseason.

This is a legit insider. He has FA and trade news often times days before they're reported. Who knows what player he's referring to but he's indicating we'll be making some kind of big move soon.

No, he's a great player. He is not in the elite of the elite Jefferson/Chase/Brown tier. He is in the next tier down which features like 10 WRs that you can rank in whatever order you choose. Yes these are highlights, but let's be honest you can count the number of active players capable of some of these plays on one hand. Allen has never had a talent like this on the team. Diggs was of course elite in his prime but very different style. To me this is the prototypical WR to mesh with Allen. The WR analog to Rousseau would be someone like Jakobi Meyers. A nice player that you like to have on your team but you don't want him being your best player at that position and you don't want to pay him like a top 10 player. FWIW I agree that $30M is an overpay for Metcalf. But so what? 90% of contract extension are overpays. That's just the price of doing business. Why are Bills fans so ready to turn their nose up at overpaying elite players while praising overpaying players like Rousseau and Bernard?

I don't think it does. We could still afford Hendrickson for example if they really wanted to. My concern is that when you overpay too many good not great players, eventually it catches up with you and then on the rare occasion when elite players become available you're shut out of the market. Look at the DK Metcalf thread - a lot of fans balking over paying him $30M AAV. The reality is we should want a $30M AAV player on our roster. All the other contenders have players worth that kind of money. Only in Buffalo do we have fans praising $20M for a solid player while saying we can't afford a top 100 player.

If we have to pay a Buffalo tax, so be it. Give Seattle the exact draft capital they're looking for plus an extra $2M per season. Make John Schneider and Metcalf's agent happy, they'll team up to convince him it's a good move. I hope we don't quibble over minor details because we feel it's unfair or whatever. The past couple weeks have proven elite talents are not going to just hit the market all that often. This is our shot, do what it takes and worry about the consequences in 5 years.

Overpay is relative, right? If he hit the market today he probably would have gotten this same contract or a bit more from some team. So from a free agency market perspective it is not an overpay. I worry that for our roster though it is an overpay because we are about to make Allen the highest paid player in NFL history (at least I assume/hope) and we are desperate for elite talent. My ultimate opinion on these latest extensions will depend on if they hinder us from adding that elite talent.

Hendrickson had a break out year in 2020 collecting 13.5 sacks in 15 games. Say what you want about Rousseau, this past year was not a break out year. Honestly for me his whole career he has been pretty much the same guy - excellent setting the edge, disrupts more than he finishes, doesn't make enough plays in critical moments in critical games. To me Rousseau is emblematic of the roster as a whole which is to say he is just good enough to not finish the job. I'm glad he got $80M and not $100M like some were projecting. But also I wish we had a couple $100M players. That's why these extensions leave me feeling a bit underwhelmed and a bit worried that they will take away from our ability to add higher tier players.

I always try to take the holistic view. So far this offseason we have extended good not great players at slot WR, LB, and run stopping EDGE. On the face of it that strategy does not scream value. If all of these players continue to be exactly who they have been, collectively it is a big overpay. Of course we need to see what happens on Monday and beyond. I think they should be doing what the Eagles do and effectively kick the can until Allen is 35 and then we can take our medicine for a couple years. If the structure of these latest contracts allows them to do that, I don't have a big problem with them. We still need to add multiple top tier talents. I'm with @Kirby Jackson that the goal should be to add two top 100 players this offseason. If we pull that off my holistic view of the offseason will be that it was a big success.

That only matters for one year deals. If we want to pay someone like Hendrickson or Metcalf, their contract is going to line up with the three contracts we just handed out. So yes extending this caliber of player absolutely makes it more difficult to add a top tier talent when one becomes available.