HappyDays

My thoughts were we could afford to re-sign one of Benford and Rousseau (I lean Benford) and one of Shakir, Cook, Bernard (I leaned Shakir). Extending too many good not great players, especially at non-premium positions, eventually catches up to you. That's my issue with this deal. Every year there is a player or two that we could really use to sign in FA or trade for and we can't afford them because of deals like this.

So we have the necessary draft capital. It just depends on if Cincy is willing to send him to a conference rival.

Bernard was under contract another year. We didn't need to do anything other than let him play out the season and see what happens. If he stays healthy and has a great year and earns a big FA contract from some other team in 2026 you live with it... he's just a LB, one with an extensive injury history. The potential downside of extending a player like him early is a lot worse than the potential downside of letting it play out.

I hope so. The guaranteed money is low enough that it's possible. That would be the one saving grace. That AAV is really shockingly high though. I can't imagine any other team out there giving him that kind of value. It's the opposite of a hometown discount.

Hmm not a fan of this at all. We'll see what the actual contract looks like I guess. Paying a small injury prone player at a non-premium position coming off a down year is just not good business. I'm getting a bit worried that their mindset this offseason is "run it back." That can't be the plan. There needs to be an infusion of more high end talent which is going to be a challenge when we're paying good not great players.

Here's Banged Up Bills' injury analysis on him: There is a somewhat concerning history of neck injuries. The article compares it to Micah Hyde. If you trade for him you're probably expecting just 2-3 good years of production so it wouldn't scare me away too much if our medical staff's evaluation checked out.

Don't get me wrong I'd be happy with trading for Hendrickson if Metcalf falls through. Sounds like a 2nd would get it done. What I like about Hendrickson is he's a complete a**hole of a player. I hate playing against him because he plays dirty. And we need some of that nastiness on the roster. But ultimately Cincy will have multiple options and since they control the destination I have to think they'll ship him out of conference if at all possible. Washington makes a lot of sense.

I can't imagine Cincy trading him to an AFC contender.

A somewhat deflating piece of info is that it sounds like he would prefer a warm weather city: So if say the Chargers want him they'd have the advantage. This doesn't necessarily rule us out but it cools my hopes a bit.

For anyone who thinks $30M is too much for Metcalf or that the pendulum has swung away from WR value: $10M fully guaranteed for a guy that didn't break 600 yards last year. True game changers are going to get eye popping numbers and you just have to live with that if you want high caliber talent on your roster.

Are we sure about that? Allen throwing deep to Amari Cooper looked pretty damn good on the few occasions where it happened, and that's an over the hill downfield WR. I've felt for a while that Metcalf is the platonic ideal of a WR that goes well with Allen's skill set and he's still well in his prime.

They aren't getting a 1st and a 3rd, this is just standard hardball negotiating through the media. But if I had to part with our 1st I would do it. As usual fans are way overvaluing 1st round draft picks, especially with where we are picking. Other than Allen there isn't one 1st round pick Beane has made that I wouldn't trade for Metcalf. Funny enough the second best use he's made of a 1st round pick was when he traded for Diggs. The time is right to make an identical move. Look at the last two drafts - Addison and BTJ were taken before we had a realistic chance to get them so we had to settle for lesser prospects. Metcalf being available gives us a rare opportunity to not settle. Take the top tier player in his prime and don't look back.

Only speaking for myself - I defended Brown when others wanted him benched or wanted us to draft a RT high. I thought his physical upside was worth being patient and I saw signs of a future good player even when he was struggling. Kincaid however I am leaning towards wanting to trade him if we could get a 3rd rounder (or as part of a package for Metcalf if it came to that) because I just don't see NFL traits there, unfortunately. Physically and mentally I don't see a player that will ever be more than decent. He'll be 26 in October so I think he's pretty close to maxed out on his abilities. So I would sell high. Of course I expect us to keep him so hopefully I'm wrong. The injury excuse doesnt really do it for me but I could buy that the game will slow down for him in his 3rd year.

He played so well they had a barely rosterable player ahead of him all through the playoffs.

I would honestly be interested if he gets paid what he should, which is a 1 year prove it deal for a low-mid tier cost. I just have no clue what his market will be like. Is someone like New England or Washington going to way overpay him just because they can?

At first glance a 3rd seems startlingly low. But this is a good point from one of the reporters that initially broke the rumor: If all we need to blow other offers out of the water is giving up one of our 2nds it's a no brainer. We'll have effectively traded over the hill Diggs for in his prime Metcalf. In that scenario the draft pick is practically a non-factor in my mind, it's really just about the money at that point.

Honestly why not both? Metcalf as the long term extension with an artificially low 2025 cap hit, Adams as the more expensive in 2025 one year stopgap for the #2 role while we wait to see how Coleman develops. Get the WR room set and then go all in on rebuilding the defense in the draft. In Metcalf we're talking about a perennial 1,000 yard WR who has also produced at a high level in the playoffs. If that's overrated what does that say about our current WR room?

It's impossible to overstate how perfect the fit is. We need an outside WR. We need to improve our vertical passing game. We need more top tier talent in general. Metcalf fills all of these needs in one shot. Adding him is like fitting a square peg into a square hole. I really hope we make it happen.

When I heard the news I didn't need to use my hand

True story - I was told this was coming 30 minutes ago and was frantically refreshing Adam Schefter's page.

Major update:

He is good friends with Allen so I could see this being a real possibility. The one thing that gives me pause is he was in the slot 76% of snaps last year. But he has played outside before so if we bring him as our Z receiver I think that could work.

I was just coming here to say I heard the details posted by Spotrac aren't exactly right. There's about $7M in incentives missing and the dead cap hits are wrong. But the posted cap hits are apparently correct and will only change depending on if the incentives are hit. So it's still team friendly. We can get out of it in 2028 with around an $8.2M dead cap hit if we need to.

Spotrac is saying there would only be a $4.2M dead cap hit if cut in 2027. That seems almost too good to be true. If this is accurate it's a tremendously team friendly deal.