HappyDays

I would love Adams after he is inevitably cut, seems like he gets forgotten about a lot in these discussions because he's not officially a FA yet. Jeremy Fowler reported he would prefer to return to the west coast though and listed both LA teams and San Fran as options. I suppose if we really want him we will just pay him whatever it takes. Adding him would make us much less desperate at the position heading into the draft. It feels like the most logical move honestly.

I thought he did look very promising in his rookie season. Notably he got better as the year went along and flashed tremendous upside. Of last year's top 3 draft picks I'd say Coleman is the only one that flashed for me, it's just unfortunate that it came halfway through the season and then he massively regressed after his injury. If he had built on that Tennesee-Seattle stretch everyone would feel much better about the pick right now. At least we saw a glimpse of his potential so I still have some hope he will develop nicely. Bishop and Carter for me never flashed. That's the concerning part. Carter had what one notable play against Houston for the whole season? Bishop didn't do anything notable, he was just a guy out there and at times a liability. But of course it's still early for both of them. I just would have liked to see some kind of flash that we could build on.

Beane has spent a fortune on DTs. Every year he's paying several FAs and he's used three rounds 1-3 picks on the position, including his highest draft pick ever not named Josh Allen. Quality of investment, not quantity, has been the issue at DT. WR is the exact opposite. The rare draft investments he's made have turned out pretty good. 1st rounder on Diggs was a big win. 4th rounder on Davis was a win. 5th rounder on Shakir was a big win. Coleman is TBD. I don't look at that group and say that Beane doesnt know how to scout WRs, he just for whatever reason doesn't invest a lot there.

Would have been a much better pick for KC too using your same logic. But it's much easier to find WRs that can win from the slot than WRs that can win vertically, so it's hard to blame them yeah? We paid Cole Beasley $7.2M AAV and got basically the same effect with a little less juice. So yeah I'm happy saving my 1st round picks for players that can't be replaced with low-mid-tier FA contracts. Let's not forget that there were other WRs we passed on in favor of Coleman - Pearsall, Legette, Polk, Mitchell. Not exactly the greatest show on turf as rookies. So our choice was a really good slot, or one of the outside WRs with upside that wasn't likely to contribute in year one. I'll take the outside WR with upside every time because the pay off if you hit is so much larger. Beane's sin was not a single decision made in last year's draft. His sin was waiting this long to make a major investment. KC is a great example - they threw away high picks on Hardman, Moore, and Toney before finally hitting on Rice (pending his ability to stop being a dumbass off the field). They didn't find a #1 WR through expert scouting, they found it by throwing a lot of darts. Beane needs to keep throwing darts in rounds 1-3. And after he gets a hit, keep throwing them.

Reading through this thread, on one hand I understand the current obsession with Cooper DeJean. He did after all just have one of the plays of the Super Bowl so it's fresh in everyone's minds. But let's be honest - the Bills absolutely needed to take a WR with their 1st pick last year. Most people on this board agreed with that sentiment last year too. That is of course Beane's fault for neglecting the position in previous years, but given the roster at that time and the strength of the WR class it was an absolute necessity and it would have been foolish to neglect the position yet again in favor of a DB that can't play on the boundary. Beane still needs to be right about the player, but the position was a no brainer. I can't imagine DeJean making any difference to how our season ended. I mean we at one point gave up 42 points to KC when Taron, Poyer, and Hyde were all in their primes. So why would a nickel CB have changed our fate? I don't expect rookies drafted late in their rounds to be key features of their team. I expect them to contribute and show progress over the course of the season. My concern with our first three picks last year is that none of them showed any meaningful upwards trajectory in the last quarter of the season. Coleman severely regressed after returning from injury, Bishop was basically the same player with maybe a slightly higher floor, Carter wasn't even active. Each of them was in some fashion affected by injury but that excuse grows very tired when it's used year after year. We'll hope that at least two of them take a major step forward which is the case for like 95% of drafted players after their rookie season.

Good news - we have multiple big holes on the roster and aren't likely to have all of them filled by the draft. CB, WR, and the entire DL need to be improved.

Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2025-nfl-mock-draft-2-0 He has us taking Matthew Golden: Interesting that he has Malaki Starks dropping to #32, I think if he falls that far no way Beane would pass on him. Seems like a perfect FS fit for our defense. Also interesting that he has Tetairoa McMillan fall to the Bucs at #19. In that scenario we should think real hard about trading up with Seattle at #18. He's an elite WR prospect in a weak WR class and profiles as a Mike Evans or Tee Higgins type that would thrive with Allen.

Man I just can't get excited about Slayton at all. PFF ranked him 91/98 WRs with a 59.0 grade. I know PFF isn't the end all be all and I know Slayton was in an awful passing offense, it just feels like a big projection for a WR that will probably get paid a fairly large contract in a weak WR market. I don't like paying a WR off a down year who's never really shown top end talent to begin with. DJ Chark, Gabe Davis, our own Curtis Samuel... Those are the recent comparisons that fit that profile. Hollywood Brown I am open to but you can't rely on him staying healthy. I don't understand the contract projections I'm seeing for him. He had to accept a 1 year $7M deal last offseason presumably because teams wanted him to prove he could stay healthy, and he answered that question by suffering a major injury on the first play of preseason. Now I'm seeing projections of like 2 years $18M? If that's what he gets then I'm out. If he gets what he should which is another low cost 1 year prove it deal then sure I would take a flyer on him.

I don't have any big draft crushes this year. Which is probably for the best. My last two draft crushes were Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman, no joke. I'm staying away from draft crushes for a while. There are three players that jump out to me that as of right now I would feel most excited about. In my order of preference: 1) Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina. A CB with his physical traits would not typically be available at #30 but an ACL tear ending his last season may give us a rare opportunity. CB to me is the 2nd biggest need on the team right now. McDermott's scheme looks a lot better with a shutdown CB and it's been 3 years since they made a major investment there. Revel is the closest thing I have to a draft crush this year, and I probably just doomed his career by saying that. 2) Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss. There is just something about him that gives me a good feeling. I've seen him called a "young Chris Jones." I mean if that was really the case he'd be a top 5 lock, but his twitch and get-off are legitimately impressive. Interior pressure is the best way to stop our conference rivals. 3) Matthew Golden, WR, Texas. It's no secret that I want the WR room upgraded big time, at any cost. Golden gets on my list simply because he's likely to be the best WR available at our pick. He gives us route running and separation ability that doesn't currently exist on our roster. Not sure there is any #1 upside there but I could see him being a very good #2 and a good complement to what we already have.

Yeah sign Cooper to fill the hole, draft Isaiah Bond (for example) in the 2nd round to get some real speed and upside in the room. Then see how Coleman develops this season and take it from there in 2026... Something like that is probably the best case scenario which is a bit depressing.

I've started to wonder if bringing back Cooper is a real possibility. I had totally discounted the idea but a couple weeks ago Jeremy Fowler reported a return to Buffalo is "not off the table" and that the Bills are "intrigued" by the idea of bringing him back. I wouldn't love that as the solution but as you said there are no ideal options. I guess in that scenario you hope the wrist injury is the reason he couldn't perform down the stretch, and that after a full offseason working with Allen and Brady he can take on a bigger role. Spotrac estimates he'll get 2 years $28M. I think I could live with that, maybe with a $5M void year in 2027 to spread out the hit. That at least puts a band-aid on the position so you're not stuck making desperate moves in a weak draft class.

For anyone looking at WRs as hard as I am, here's a 7 minute video showing every target to Matthew Golden in 2024: Obviously these sorts of videos will be biased in favor of positive plays because it's only plays where he earned a target, but you can get a pretty good sense of the player's abilities. Watching the video just now I wish I had said "wow" a couple times. There is nothing flashy about his game. He seems like a good all around WR that profiles best as a #2 at the next level, with possible #1 upside only if he becomes a master of his craft as a route runner. Two positives jump out. His comeback routes look day one NFL ready. Sells vertical, quickly breaks to come back to the ball, has a good feel for keeping the CB out of the window and creating YAC opportunity. Allen loves those routes so I really like that. Also his work against press coverage sticks out. Again this is just plays where he's targeted so I can't say how well he does on a down to down basis, but at least in these clips he is seamlessly shaking every press he gets and making it look almost effortless. Biggest downside I see is very little contribution in the red zone. Doesn't seem to separate well in that tight area and is not a contested catch guy by any means. Nothing about his game screams 1st round talent but you have to rely on luck for a player with 1st round talent to fall to #30. I'm usually in favor of higher ceilings in the 1st round and that's not really Golden's profile at all, but if they took him I would feel pretty comfortable that he would slot in right away as a starting outside WR.

We were only in the game at all because Mahomes randomly dropped the ball. And because we recovered every single fumble. And because Cook made a ridiculous individual play that absolutely should have been a 4th down stop. You can't point to one fluctuation of luck and say "if this one outcome was flipped we would have won" while ignoring the rest that went our way. We can't expect every single coin flip to go our way. The preferred outcome is to make the random swings of luck a non-factor by making a lot more plays than your opponent.

Yeah. Look at their coaching staffs and then look at ours. I'm sorry but there's no comparison. The Eagles are a better comparison for what we need to do. They have an all star roster with two top tier pass catchers. That's going to be our most likely path to success. More than 10 years back might as well be ancient history in the NFL. And I'm trying to be fair, I'm looking at all Super Bowl participants not just Super Bowl winners. The participants in recent Super Bowls have all had a pass catcher that at the time was very clearly a top tier weapon. KC this year was really the lone exception. Agreed the defensive scheme/coaching was the biggest problem. There's only one possible change there and it isn't happening so that's that. Disagree that DL pressure was a big problem. Mahomes was getting the ball out in less than 2 seconds. Our contain rush was certainly poor but again that's coaching. DBs were a huge issue in this game and I hope we make some big investments in the secondary, but we've had multiple all-pros in the secondary and still given up ridiculous production in the playoffs. So of those 3 concerns the secondary is the only one where I think we can make meaningful improvements this offseason. None of that means the offense was good enough. Allen has had the ball in his hands last in two consecutive playoff games and we couldn't punch it in. That should be the dream scenario with an elite QB but he needs help around him to make it count.

Apparently they now plan to tag him to try and sign him to a long term deal: With Mike Brown involved I'll believe it when I see it. I can't imagine him giving the type of up front money that would be needed to extend both Higgins and Chase. Either way if they tag him that likely makes it impossible for us to acquire him.

Sure, he can. But why is our goal for our all-world QB to "get by" with his pass catchers? The goal should be for him to dominate and steamroll the competition and leave no doubt. Seems like some people are stuck on semantics. It is of course possible for the Bills to win the Super Bowl without a top tier pass catcher. Just like it's possible for Nick Foles to win a Super Bowl. But what we're talking about is not what's possible but what's likely. And recent Super Bowl history plus recent Bills history would tell you that it is more likely we will get to the Super Bowl if we have a top tier pass catcher.

I would stay away from dynasties in these discussions. Dynasties break all the rules, they're not good comparisons. We would need an all-time great coaching staff to emulate the Pats or Chiefs dynasties. As an example KC won the Super Bowl last year with bad OT play. Does that mean OTs are overrated? Of course not. But they're allowed to break the rules and still compete for a Super Bowl. We'll need to go the more traditional route. So staying away from dynasties (and even the Chiefs and Pats had Tyreek Hill and/or Kelce or Gronkowski during their Super Bowl runs) here are the top tier pass catchers that have reached the Super Bowl in recent years: AJ Brown (twice) Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle Cooper Kupp Ja'Marr Chase Mike Evans That's the last 7 years of Super Bowl history. Every team has needed players of that caliber to even get to the Super Bowl, and as noted even the Chiefs had at least one top tier pass catcher every year until this year when Kelce really dropped off. It's just not a position you can hide unfortunately. No one says a top tier pass catcher guarantees a Super Bowl appearance, but seemingly one is necessary to have a good chance of getting there. We once again fell short this year because Allen's pass catchers let him down on the final drive of the season. Yes there were plenty of other issues in that game especially on defense, but every one of them would have been overcome if we had had the necessary pass catching talent to close the deal on that final drive. Which is exactly the same outcome as what happened the previous year.

Bond in the 2nd round has grown on me. My initial hesitation was he makes Curtis Samuel a redundancy, but then again why should Samuel influence our draft strategy at all given how disappointing he was? So yeah I'm all about getting a younger faster talent to fill that role even if it means giving up on Samuel. I just don't know if Beane will be willing to do that.

I worry that his skill set is too similar to what we've already had, but my usual disclaimer is that how the player turns out is what really matters. I'm not going to turn my nose up at any decently high WR investment. Beane just has to be right about the player. I'm ideally looking for more of a speed/separation WR from this draft. Matthew Golden seems like the one player available at #30 that would fit the profile and be worth the pick, but admittedly it's hard for me to imagine him being the BPA at that pick. A trade up for Egbuka is the other 1st round option if he drops low enough. I know you said he's a slot WR but it doesn't seem like a Ladd McConkey situation where he's likely to a slot-only at the next level. Seems like his ability to get off press and separate outside is a matter of experience more than physical ability. And yeah that's why I keep coming back to Higgins (or Metcalf if Seattle is willing to trade him). The draft just doesn't present a lot of good options to fix the WR room. It's either use our 1st round pick and still add someone like Darius Slayton/Hollywood Brown, or make a major investment in FA/trade and then still draft one before round 5. I can't imagine just adding like a Darius Slayton and a round 4 WR. If that happens I can almost guarantee we'll again be looking for a mid-season trade to fill out the room.

Unfortunately they've backed themselves into a corner at WR because they didn't take advantage of earlier opportunities.

Tampa Bay at #19 would be the target if they want Egbuka badly enough. By the trade value chart one of our 2nd rounders would get us up that far. I'm not sure Beane would do it though, he's been unwilling to part with his 2nd rounders. Maybe missing out on BTJ last year because of that unwillingness will make him more bold.

Yes I really agree with this. We have a good amount of cap space to utilize for the first time in a while and a lot of draft picks. The core of the roster and both primary coordinators are back. The division is still at least one year away from being remotely competitive, and as noted the overall schedule and conference look weaker than 2024. This is partly why I'm laying off calling for McDermott or Beane to be fired - all of the moves that they made last offseason were really about positioning the team for this offseason, so they've earned the right to try and finish the job in maybe their most favorable season yet. Year one of Allen's second window went better than anybody expected and now they're in prime position to close the deal if they spend their substantial resources appropriately and learn from their past mistakes. They made one splash move in 2020 and another in 2022... 2025 seems like the right year for the next splash move to take advantage of favorable resources and a favorable conference.

I think we pushed him back on the field way too soon. I remember seeing Banged Up Bills post something about how players on average clear concussion protocol faster for playoff games. Nothing suspicious about that of course. So yes I'm sure the second concussion was a direct result of the first one which makes me sick to think about. But as far as I can remember those are the only two concussions he's suffered in his career. In recent NFL history Tua is the only player I can think of who has had his career really disrupted by a tendency to get concussions. It's just not something I worry about with Benford. Maybe I'm wrong and we'll get burned if we extend him early. But he's a very good player, he's a scheme fit, he fills a premium position, and I don't think he'll blow up the market. I'd take the risk.

Maybe I missed something but I've never seen Higgins be a problem or a ball hog. He's played second fiddle to Ja'Marr Chase for his entire career. At this point he's going to go to the highest bidder as he should. But I'm also using Higgins as a generic stand-in for any top tier WR. That's where our offensive resources need to be spent.

No he was on the inactive list quite a bit. After first coming off IR they gave him like 2 games but he was terrible so the rest of the year he was mostly inactive including against KC if I'm remembering correctly. But I won't jump to conclusions about this draft class yet. The 2022 draft class that looks so good now looked terrible after year one. Elam lost his job to a 6th rounder in Benford who looked decent but nothing special back then, Cook was stuck as RB2, Bernard barely saw the field and when he did he looked terrible, Shakir couldn't carve out a role. 2023 is not looking good, admittedly it was known to be a poor class but still. A 1st and a 4th used on Kincaid looks like very poor value right now, Torrence has been decent but iffy, Williams has been decent but iffy, none of the later round picks did anything. Beane's recent draft legacy will depend on how last year's draft picks develop. It is just alarming how he's drafted exactly ZERO difference makers except for the very first pick he ever made. Spencer Brown is as close as he's gotten to finding an elite player with an original draft pick. Way too many singles or strike outs.