Dont Stop Billeiving

Thanks for posting, good insight! The summary at the end about Butler not really having a true position in the Bills scheme (he's probably best suited to be a 3-4 DE IMO) makes me wonder if he should try to lose 20-25 pounds to get down closer to 300 and maybe gain some speed and agility to back up Oliver at 3-Tech. Right now, he looks like a 1-Tech at 330 lbs, but that's not really his skill set. Idk something I'd consider proposing if I was on the coaching staff...

Autry stood out to me when I was watching Colts film prior to our match up. Would definitely be interested at the right price.

Beat me to it! KC is going to have to make some more tough decisions like this. Last time I checked Spotrac and definitely prior to these cuts, the Chiefs had approx. -$18 million in cap space. How are they going to replace these guys? Picks #31 and #63? For all the talk of the Bills being stuck with a limited budget this offseason, I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of what KC is going to do in the national media. Hopefully this is another factor in the Bills closing the gap with KC in 2021.

A true pay cut or some sort of a creative restructure that either lowers his cap hit this year or lessens the dead cap hit to cut him after this season would be the only good option IMO (thing is, I don't think he has any incentive to do either unless he just wants to help the team out of the goodness of his heart). Cutting Star or him retiring would be a disaster. That's all from a cap standpoint, but I want him back on the field in his steady 1-Tech role as well.

No I didn't, cheers man! Too distracted watching the Syracuse game!

Hopefully the Vernon Butler cut is coming soon. Not to be too ruthless, but that should be the most straightforward move of the offseason. John Brown is all class. Helped get us to the playoffs in 2019 and was always mentoring the young guys/teaching them how to be a pro. All the best to that guy!

100%. Retaining Morse on a pay cut should just be the start. We need to invest cap space and draft picks on the O-line to improve at both guard spots and retain Darryl Williams if possible. Building around Allen should be the priority and I trust McBeane to do that. I think Beane is off to a sneaky good start to the 2021 offseason. Micah Hyde is an excellent player and leader on this team and his extension is below market value. He'll still be outside the top 10 highest paid safeties and compare his $9.5M AAV to someone like Devin McCourty who is over 3 years older and is getting $11.5M AAV. We now have Hyde (2023), Poyer (2022), and White (2025) locked up through the 2022 season at least. Then resigning Andre Smith brings back a core special teams player and LB depth. I didn't realize this guy is only 23 years old and his 2 year deal worth up to $3M is actually a real under the radar bargain compared to the minimum one year qualifying offer of $2.1M (as pointed out by Sal C on Twitter). Now the $2M pay cut by Morse to help the team...it's early, but I'm excited and encouraged by what's been done so far.

Thanks Yolo! Still buzzing that I was finally able to break some news despite my lack of a Twitter account, usually you and a few others are all over it which is awesome for the rest of us. Finally the time difference has worked in my favor while you all were just waking up! Suck it EST-ers!!

A bit surprised at the mixed reaction to this move. We need to see the specific contract details to really determine the impact of the restructure (and in this case pay cut), but I think this is a win-win move. Morse is a great center especially in pass protection who has held up well despite pretty awful guard play at times. The concussion issues are a genuine concern, but as some other posters have said, we will likely be able to get out of his deal without much dead cap next year and draft or sign his replacement when we have more resources if we want. I'm happy to have a player of his caliber back and at a reduced price that helps the team. If we can upgrade at one or both guard spots next to him, I think you could see a Pro Bowl-worthy season out of him. Keeping Josh protected and healthy needs to be our top priority and I think keeping Morse is a big factor in that. Putting Feliciano at center or a rookie starting from Day 1 would have been a downgrade IMO.

Absolutely, only LT (Dawkins) and C (Morse) are filled with above average players at this point. I'm hoping they can bring back Williams on a $10M AAV or less contract, but that may not be in the cards. We need upgrades at both guard spots IMO (although I could live with Ike Boettger since we aren't overflowing with cap space and draft picks) as well so yeah completely agree that we should aim to use an early draft pick on the O-line and another in the later rounds.

Good point from Sal C...I was never in favor of releasing Morse, but sounds like the Bills will possibly willing to go that route if necessary.

Follow up tweet from Ian Rapoport...sounds like some new incentives have been built in which seems like the smart approach to hedge against his injury risk/concussion history.

Rapoport just tweeted 7 min ago that 'Bills C Mitch Morse cut his salary by nearly $2M to stay in Buffalo.' Great news. A solid player kept at a more reasonable cost.

Thanks for posting man! Also a massive SU fan (I was raised in Buffalo, but was born in Syracuse and basically all of my extended family lives there and went to SU). Loved CJ Fair, miss some of those dominant teams. Seems like another year of bubble watch again this season, but hopefully we can at least beat NC State coming up. Anyways, back to the Bills, did you see why the writer thought Henry was a much better schematic fit than the other top guys? And can anyone reassure me about his injury issues? I like the player a lot, but I'm just worried about his availability. Cam Brate is a sneaky name I haven't heard mentioned a lot...interesting

Smart approach to factor this into the decision. If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah were to fall to us at #30, he could genuinely be an upgrade over Milano. Love that guy, but he'll likely be gone by the early twenties. There's a few LBs on Day 2 like Cox (2nd Rd- perfect fit) and Surratt (3rd Rd as he needs a lot of development IMO) and it's probably easier to find a Milano replacement in the later rounds than OT. A lot of the podcast guys like Joe Marino and the Cover 1 crew have spoken about the great value of selecting an OT at pick #30 relative to most other positions. OT is one of the most highly paid positions and it would be great to have a stellar RT on a cheap rookie deal especially since we have extended Dawkins on the other side (same applies to Tre White and finding a young, athletic CB2 in the draft to pair with him). Hopeful that Teven Jenkins falls to us (love the power and nastiness he plays with). Seeing Jalen Mayfield mocked to us a decent amount as well, need to watch more tape on him. Radunz or Eichenberg in the 2nd possibly. Would love to see a draft of Teven Jenkins (#30), Jabril Cox (#61), and Tyler Shelvin or Alim McNeill (#94). Will any of them make it to those picks, not sure. But Cox is a natural Milano replacement and perfect fit in our defense and Jenkins and either DT would provide some needed talent/youth/physicality in the trenches. Would be just as interested in a couple trade downs as I love the 2nd-4th round talent and depth in this class. Who would you like in the draft? Go Bills!

This. I wasn't opposed but also wasn't that eager to trade a pick for Ertz, but well put. I like your plan for the offense (with the addition of shoring up the offensive line in both FA and the draft). We really need to add a speed element to our rushing attack or defenses will never fear getting beaten to the corners. With our passing-heavy offense, we should be drafting a WR every year (again more speed!) and I'd love to draft Teven Jenkins at #30 if he's there or Quinn Meinerz on Day 2. An injection of power and nastiness on cheap contracts with either guy. Get er done Beane!

Agree with the bolded statement. I wouldn't mind Ngakoue, but to be honest, I might prefer Carl Lawson from a value standpoint. His market value is almost half of that figure and I think he's a breakout candidate. One more year removed from his injury as well. The more I read about Lawson and hear him speak, I think he's a fit on the Bills and a player who could pop on a better defense. All in favor of cutting Butler and Addison, but I'd keep Jefferson actually. He played well when he was used correctly (aka not as a 1-Tech) and contributed a lot of pressures. Would like see Oliver and Jefferson as our 3-Techs next year with Star eating up blockers.

Good news, hope it's a restructure and not a release. Hughes is still a productive player. Hughes and Oliver are the two mainstays on our defensive line. With Star hopefully returning as well, that should allow Ed to play his preferred 3-Tech and attack the QB and Star should also eat up blockers for Edmunds and the LBs. Having missed out on Watt (I would have loved bringing him to Buffalo, but he did get a ton of money and has struggled with injuries so there is some risk), I hope we can bring in a Ryan Kerrigan or similar type of player to play the other end after cutting Butler and Addison. Then bring in Tyler Shelvin or Alim McNeill in the third round and an edge rusher on Day 2 or early Day 3. I don't think there will be any edge prospects left at pick #30 that will be good value. Joe Marino on the Locked On Bills podcast did a great episode the other day examining how ineffective pass rushers picked in the last quarter of the first round have been. Final defensive line group in this scenario: Hughes/ 4th Round Pick Jordan Smith from UAB / Bam Johnson Star / Harrison Phillips / 3rd Round Pick Tyler Shelvin from LSU Oliver / Jefferson / Zimmer Kerrigan / Epenesa I think Star's presence would allow everyone to play in the spots that suit them best especially Oliver and Jefferson and that Shelvin could develop and become our future 1-Tech. Oliver and Epenesa will hopefully take the next steps in their development as well. Phillips ended the year strong and will be another year on from his injury. Kerrigan could provide the steadiness and production that Murphy couldn't in his time with the Bills and mentor the younger guys. Jordan Smith is the type of toolsy pass rush prospect I love in the mid-rounds, think he has a chance to be great. Bam Johnson is mostly a special teamer at this point, both he and Zimmer who I like would have to fight it out for the last spot on the roster in this situation. Excited to get your thoughts, Go Bills!

This. I'd add Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to your list for potential trade ups, but agree on trading up for a big time playmaker. If no one falls, I think the smart move is to trade back from #30. Rounds 2-3 are really deep with talent this year and I wouldn't mind trading back once or twice to get extra picks.

Definitely, Gerald Everett and Kalif Raymond are both really interesting fits for us in FA. Underused by their current teams IMO and hopefully shouldn't break the bank either.

Wade may have said this, but you could see on that play that his rugby instincts took over. In rugby union, the runner wants to get into their version of the end zone and down the ball as close to the middle of the field/goalposts as possible. That's because the ensuing conversion kick (basically an XP that counts as 2 points) is taken on a parallel line from the spot where the ball was downed. So if the runner gets to the middle which is harder to score from, the kick is very easy. Conversely, it's usually easier to score a try from the wider areas of the field, but then the angle and distance of the kick is much tougher. Definitely would recommend watching the Six Nations tournament that's on now (great timing now that football is over and my Saturdays/Sundays are free!). My Ireland team are struggling this year, but still worth a watch!

I was thinking Short could be a potential cut and interesting add for the Bills based on his injuries the past two years and the massive amount of money Carolina would owe him in 2021. In my opinion, he's much more likely to have a Daryl Williams bounce back season than become a Vontae Davis. As the tweet mentioned, Short was previously an elite run defender and former Pro Bowler who played the best years of his career under Sean McDermott (and next to Star!). If we can bring him in on a one year deal (incentive-laden if possible) for $2-4 million, I would do that in a heart beat. Good risk-reward for the Bills at a position of need and good for Kawann Short who gets to play for a contender with world-class medical facilities and his former DC.

Agreed, I like Morse as our center and a leader for this team. He is an outstanding pass blocker and very good when pulling in the run game (unfortunately, our run scheme this season didn't really play to his strengths). To be fair, he is overpaid especially considering his concussion history and was (maybe still is?) the highest paid center in the NFL which is likely where the 'Cut Morse!' people are coming from. I wonder if he would be open to a restructure...if we could free up $3-4 million this season and still keep him, that seems like the ideal situation for me.

Like the look of Gainwell (and Hawkins from Louisville) a lot, we really need a speed element in our backfield. It would be interesting to examine the differences between Gainwell and Darrell Henderson though as I thought he was an outstanding RB prospect out of Memphis a couple years ago and he hasn't done much at the NFL level yet (you could argue he hasn't gotten many opportunities in the Rams crowded backfield but still). Are you a Memphis fan and/or do you know if Gainwell might project differently as a pro? Thanks

I do wonder if they wind up taking a flyer on Kawann Short when his monster contract is done after next season...he'll be 33 and he's barely played the last two years due to injuries, but he was a Pro Bowler prior to that. Played his best seasons under McDermott. Very similar situation to Darryl Williams when you think about it!