YattaOkasan

My understanding is this type of deal was not offered early. It seemed the Jets actually wanted to retain Fitz for 2 or 3 years. With anything past the first year being at a substantial discount. If this offer had been made in June I suspect he would have agreed (Weo's point). Jets might not care but I can understand other players on that roster watching this process and not being excited about how it went.

seems clear to me that they wanted to nickel and dime him. several posters thought he wouldn't get a 1 yr 12 mil deal.

Didn't Fitz want a one year deal, and the Jets wanted him for a multi-year. The 12 mil in year one was established for a while it was just they were haggling for how long. Fitz wanting the ability to get out of town/renegotiate if he has another good year.

I can probably do that as well. TO differential was more readily available. My reason for not using it was looking into TOs it appeared that Ints forced, Fumbles forced, and fumbles given away all seemed to "random." I think the data I saw showed that there was no correlation between the Ints forced, fumbles forced, and fumbles given from the 1st half of a season to the 2nd half.

Good idea. Honestly the time consuming parts were data aggregation and figuring out how to post the results. Was interested to see what the group thought. I was also hoping additional data would help limit the outliers (that NO defense was terrible, as mentioned on this forum).

That was sorta what I was getting at. There does seem to be a correlation. I am interested in getting some more data. Check back in a couple days.

I think I understand Clayton's logic. The season goes awful and TT is not extended and Rex is fired. But I am skeptical that the season ends that badly. I think it would have to be like 2-14.

As bandit has mentioned he has performed well as of late. Particularly when he gets targets. Its difficult for him to control how often the ball is thrown his way. Unless I'm misunderstanding, the 5th year option for a WR this year would make them the 11th highest paid player. I am ok with that. Again Sammy is very young.

Wise or not I think hes a good player that generates a lot of yards. Yes I would pick up his 5th year in your scenario.

He has not had plenty of opportunity to generate YAC because he doesn't get bubble screens in the NFL (much to mine and other chagrin). You're right the draft was about his YAC, and he hasn't gotten it. But he has generated yards; so I'm happy. Agree that hes only good at the moment, but factoring his age he is exceptional. If he plays 31 games is he worth the 5th year? Thats a tough line in the sand.

But there seems to be some cognitive dissonance here to me. Without Sammy were terrible yet hes not worth a 5th year option. I get that injuries is the crux of TG's argument but Sammy's only missed 3 games in 2 years.

You own article said its not as bad as it appears because they get the ball thrown to them in places where YAC are not as readily available. Look at his YPR or YPT numbers they are very good.

So if we account for where they are thrown the ball they are so bad. Shocking. Also has dropped the conversation because you have been misleading at best.

Giants and Titans early in the year

Bored on a Friday. I've been seeing a lot of discussion on Rex's sub par points allowed ranking with the Jets. Additionally I saw little discussion on how this may be related to fact that his offense was not very good (with respect to TOs). Below is the linear fit of turnovers to points allowed for the 2015 season. Not surprising there is a positive relationship although not statistically significant (its close). There are a couple of huge outliers like the NO saints and NY Giants terrible defense. On the other side, this makes Denver's D was very good at keeping the other team out of the endzone. I am thinking of expanding this data set to include previous seasons as well. Thoughts???? I can share my data set of course if people would like. Apparently don't know how to get the report into the post

Didnt see it posted but buffalo rumblings has the breakdown. http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/7/13/12167584/buffalo-bills-future-looks-subpar-according-to-espn I think the most confusing part is the roster is good but the FO is bad? That seems like a bit of cognitive dissonance. Also sammy is good.

Anybody else excited to see Tunsil with a bum ankle match up against Dareus or K Williams?

I would think Seymour would be tough to do because of his vision problems in college. Sounds like hes completely different. Great job Rob BTW

Any chance he pushes Dray for his position as blocker TE? He looked like a great blocker in the videos I saw (lined up as a HB/FB half the time and sprung a couple of big runs). Gragg would be our athletic TE.

Dez is very exciting to me as well. Particularly as another big red zone target. The offense has the potential for something special, and I think the defense will likely be pretty good too.

I am making that assumption. But I think most agree that need is a consideration during the draft. So small drop yes but its description has felt like the sky was falling. I can forgive someone making a wrong call or a risk didn't pan out. It would suck but sometimes those things happen. However, if you know hes going to miss time then say he'll miss time and get the surgery done 3 weeks earlier. I couldn't forgive having him miss 3 weeks just to look good.

This quote struck me — Through injuries and absences, one constant for the Bills through OTA's is Preston Brown and Reggie Ragland at inside linebacker. Ryan beamed when asked about them. "1-2 punch, man," he said. "We're in business right there. ... We're going to be hard to figure out who's who." Has it been discussed that Brown and Ragland maybe switching Mike/Will responsibilities on different plays. Im not sure how else to take this line.

I still don't understand that basis for this argument. Do you have evidence that he was overlooked? His "drop" seemed to be from Bears @ 11 (who moved up to get Floyd) to Bills @ 19. In between a multiple tackles were selected by teams that didn't have an OLB or DE need. Yes we scooped him up at 19 so its hard to say how far he would've dropped, but I am not convinced he dropped far. So you make a strong point, but I can still see Lawson having value @ 19 with THIS injury. Obviously Jack and Smith had much more concerning injuries which is why they went so much later. If Shaq's knee were a problem still, then he would've dropped as well. I think the odds are better than an inside straight. Can we say a two pair drawing on full house (I don't think this injury takes him out of the hand like missing on an inside straight does)? Its definitely possible the FO fed us some baloney but I'm a little skeptical. Either way I can understand the criticism. My biggest issue/concern was the 3 week delay. They really had better have believed he could play otherwise they ARE idiots.

I think I had trouble with most of them. Like I said the youtube video on the secondary article was great (don't remember if it was three for every article) if that's not too much of a work around. And the GIFs could just be me. Either way you earned my loyalty (and a lot of other posters it sounds like). Keep up the great work.

Im with Hondo. Great work. The only issue I have is I can't always get the GIFs to work. You posted all the plays on Youtube for one of your articles (2ndary article I think). Could you compile all the GIFs for an article as a Youtube video in case they don't work? Again great analysis and thank you.