YattaOkasan

I'm guessing Hyde is right in that range somewhere for you too?

Yup I can appreciate that, and honestly Brady's run last year has really answered a lot of questions about his overall career. But at this moment I think Allen wins both those games (NFCC and SB) as well, and GB as you mentioned might have been easier for TB with Allen. I don't think that Brady gets us past the Colts when we needed someone to make plays. So if were talking about 1 game who do we prefer, I still give the nod to Allen (and frankly several QBs) over Brady.

Brady is interesting to me. I don’t think we win as many games if Brady is our QB and I think TB wins the same or more games if Allen is QB. Do you disagree with this(which)? From that logic I have Allen > Brady.

Why would he take that when he could stay and have McDermott and Allen. That’s clearly the better duo and he would get to call plays. We might lose him but surely not to Daboll and trubisky.

I don’t think Jamal Adams on this list is good. Poyer Hyde are both better than him. Byard also had a down year. With all the pro bowl snub articles for poyer I would’ve thought he got at least an honorable mention

So now I don’t agree with much of anything you said after I did agree with a lot. do you think the chiefs lost the SB because of iOL or tackle? Tackle was my assessment. You mentioned frank Clark. That wasn’t a iOL problem either. So that’s why I wondered why you thought it was such a mistake for us to pass on Humphries (your examples). I now see why your focus on humphries as I agree our iOL is one of our biggest weaknesses (check my posts I also don’t one of Morse/Mongo is here after next year). Again I think I can live with iOL as weakness as opposed to more important positions. My one caveat is I agree with joe Marino and against the chiefs the OL needs to enable us to run the ball better. as for chiefs I think they did good in UFA but that’s a bit of an back handed compliment right? they really don’t have much under contract for next year on their line. Re-signing brown would go along way but he might be close to double dawkins in cap hit. I think any injury (particularly tackle again) and they could be in a world of trouble again. Whereas I think we have backups that won’t wreck the game plan. Re:SB I think we fare better than the chiefs who really felt the absence of missing their starting OT. Our weakness has been iOL as the OP has mentioned so while Vita Vea would have been a handful I think we had a better chance than the chiefs at that point.

Agree with a lot of what you said but this struck me as a bit odd. Most of the points you mentioned (besides our woes in running the ball) seem to be Tackle focused. We did get two of the most athletic tackles possible this year. Presumably if we had a KC situation with one or both starters going down late in the season we will not suffer their fate. I dont know that KC rectified their depth issues at the position. We also have a ton of bodies at iOL, and I dont know that we needed Humphrey as much as we did Tackle depth.

Good topic. The battle should be good. Some items in my head on the Line but specifically the iOL: I think one of Morse and Mongo is not on the team next year. Looking at contracts this seems likely. This leads to my next thought I think Doyle is retained because the Bills tend to keep their draft picks which causes me to almost expect a trade for a good player (Boettger or Lamp are most likely imo) From the Bills draft strategy I think the logic is very clear. Find good players for high value positions in the draft, use FA for the rest. This is why we did not make big investments into iOL Every team has a weakness if I get to choose mine iOL would be high on the list (with tackle being very low) I remember some folks being upset about the Teller trade, but I think at the time it was great value since he was likely a cut candidate. He also entered a historically good situation with the rest of the line he gets to play with and the coach he plays for. Im not sure he reaches his peak this soon for us. Outside of these things anything seems possible.

I think they also did not realize their previous data sets were not representative for the reasons you mentioned. Particularly the lack of experience should have caused their models to push out their 95% CI on predictions (specifically on the high end cause they were predicting such low performance).

Position is listed next to player picture. It says OLB. I see where you get RILB (scrolling to year by year). I went with the headline number. Not a lie and it doesnt seem that you tried to understand my position (definition of debating in bad faith). last ill engage with someone who is just trying to provoke with inflammatory language.

Lies? how about links? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviLa00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneDe01.htm I think the mods @Hapless Bills Fan might need to step in at this point

Pro football reference has multiple of them as OLB. You claimed it was the mode early on based on your logic. The requirement for evidence lies with you. Another poster said they ran the numbers (did not present data) and said it was not. As i was scanning for that post im reminded you thought that hes an edge rusher. Clearly the NFL doesnt agree but you think you are wiser than them, and this isnt really a good faith discussion i see. I appreciate the comment about the pro bowl, but i am reminded why i dont engage with you on this board.

1) Several of these are OLB or Wills so again not so sure youre comparison is correct. Are we expanding this to all off ball LB? For ILB in 3-4 or MLB in 4-3 I dont see such a disparity between the conferences. 2) The OP seemed to be saying that TFL numbers show Edmunds wasn't so bad. You tried to say TFNG was the mode of the data set based on logic. That was wrong. The pro bowl discussion has gotten a bit out of hand. I'll take the point that its not as big of a thing to hang your hat on based on the covid year and potential differences between conferences. Not sure where visibility became a thing but it doesnt matter to me. Overall the TFL topic is a reason to be hopeful for your point 3, but you seem to be fighting it. 3)I was def on the "this team will go as far as Allen takes them" train cause of the correlation between QB and team performance, but I was absolutely expecting Edmunds to have the break out year (Allen I expected some improvement but not breakout) and I think most of the board thought so too (see the post above that you liked). I agree with your last 3 sentences. To this point he has not played to his potential. I believe you had previously stated you would not pay him his 5th year? If I'm wrong ignore this, but I don't get the logic in that. A young freak athlete without good instincts at a position that players seem to grow into (couple recent notable exceptions) seems ideal for a 5th year. If youre last 3 sentences are how you feel I think were pretty aligned. I think he does a lot more than shows up in the stats but he does need to make more game changing plays from a position where cheaper talent can be found.

it’s a fair point but you’re still giving it a deep discount as I don’t think the disparity in the conferences is that big. I only brought up the fans to say he wasn’t voted in by them. I don’t really care if non bills fans know who he is; I do know that players and coaches think highly of him (with caveats about potential disparities between the conferences understood) your final paragraph is eerily similar to how peeps were talking about josh last year. If the the kid is a competitor and a leader (and by most accounts he’s at least the second) then I’m pretty excited about what he’s gonna do this year. Heck last year was supposed to be his coming out party not Josh’s.

See posts above. It’s def not mode as I suspected. Agree with much of the rest. I do think though the league see his value different than fans or pff. Again his pro bowl nod came from coaches and players. They aren’t infallible but I think they have a very different perspective whats good. Thanks for the convo.

Why was his pro bowl selection a joke? He didnt win the fan vote which is largely how jokes make it to the pro bowl. Your reference to best MLBs not playing last year was not about Tre's pro bowl was it? Also I think Tre has more value over Hightower at this point in his career (agree Mosley is better but he is also a bit of an unknown, obviously Bush has played better). There has been talk that with AJ Klein on the field Tre was trying to do too much and that game may have been an example of that. He needs to play better than last year, but was totally fine with exercising the 5th year option on a physical freak that may need more time.

Thanks for the response. Appreciate the 2nd point. And agree with much of the third (I don’t think McD thinks it’s devalued). on the first point I guess we need to think about exact yardage and how the data set was formed. If it is in integers I am very certain that 0 is not the mode. 1 or 2 would seem to be the most common result. If we’re gonna parse it out to decimals the. Yes you’re probably right TFNG would be higher but i strongly doubt any data set would have that much granularity.

I don’t think TFNG is the mode in this data set as it’s only 9% of the data set. Getting some gain will almost certainly be a higher percentage. I understand your point of TFNG being a big number but all TFL is actually a bigger number so it’s a mischaracterization to say it’s a little important number being added to an insignificant big number. Your point on short distance situations is interesting too. You have de valued them quite a bit IMO. A TFNG in short yardage situation is more beneficial than on first down. This is in a direct sense. If you are trying to say a TFL on first down is more important because they indirectly cause turnovers then I could be convinced (show the data please). However the short yardage TFNG causes punts (as you said desirable) or keeps points off the board. you say the position is devalued but then say how much his 5th year contract is and he should just be an edge. All these things can’t be true. He made a pro bowl (without doing well in fan vote). And part of the 5th year formula incorporates how much the position gets paid. he needs to play better than last year but he’s above average and flirting with top 10 seems right to me.

He did it again with Simms two seasons ago at OBD. agree that’s a great watch though. That’s where dilfer lays out the fallacy of the idea that completion percentage is the same as accuracy.

You don't think theres an argument for either Jackson (MVP winner) or Murray (2019 Offensive rookie of the year) over Herbert (2020 offensive rookie of the year)? Simms was pretty high on Herbert and had him #2 in the class (well ahead of Tua). That was him going out on a limb last year imo so now youre gonna say hes doing click bait by not having him high enough. Why is it so hard to accept that this is his opinion and is not for clicks.

Just want to frame this a bit differently. I think we are already challenging KC for the AFC crown. I can understand your arguments on the other players (would disagree on Tremaine as he has made a Pro Bowl without winning fan vote and we have had good years against TE before this year). Again we are challenging KC as it is and if the listed players become special we are routinely beating them (not just challenging them).

Sorry one clarification I need. Broke the record for completion percentage? I think thats a bit different than accuracy (Jones may still be very accurate). Completion % has accuracy incorporated into it, but also has things like processing in it. The blending of completion percentage and accuracy was not a wise development.

Agree accuracy is more important but completion percentage is something that can increase over time for many reasons. Arm talent will not increase appreciably. The challenge with lower arm talent is you need to make up for it with processing. I don’t know Jones wonderlic off hand but I would overall think it’s easier to process at Bama than it will be in the NFL

I would take those 3 over Brady? I would take Murray Jackson over Herbert but not the other two (I can't remember the list and am a bit confused by your sentence structure). I think hes wrong on Taysom Hill, but I really don't think the list is for clicks. Last year he actually tempered his list quite a bit and had Josh only at like 18 even though he really like him. He did similar with Burrow. His list maybe more out on a limb this year but I don't think its just for clicks. Do you think his picking of Josh and Lamar over the other 3 QBs in 2018 was just for clicks? Same for choosing Herbert over Tua? If hes just doing things for clicks then hes had well above average luck. For the other post about KC and disguising coverage, it was some of that but moreover that game was them CHANGING coverage to match the audible and Josh not having enough time to get back into the right play.

I wonder what his thoughts were on Josh coming into last year. I was excited but was still blown away by how well he did. I also like that PFF hasn't recognized that Josh sits outside the data set they use to make their predictions. One thing that site is good at is the non interpretative stats during different personnel groupings, down and distance, etc. Their grades though lack critical context and I don't think are that valuable to the NFL community.