YattaOkasan

So on positional value I think there is first round value (I think other posters agree) BUT the return on that capital takes longer. This is why I am intrigued with Hock but sorta just want a stud pass rusher instead because we seem to wanting to win now. If you’re pounding for Hock you’re probably try to set up for the long term.

There was an Interesting 538 article looking at how FA money is spent relative to draft capital spent. They found TE to be the biggest mismatch in the direction of more FA capital spent relative to draft capital. Ignoring QB which has its own rules, DL was the opposite direction with the most draft capital spent relative to FA capital. I wonder if this thought that TEs struggle to have a lot of impact on their rookie contracts is why there is the difference https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-positions-do-teams-obsess-over-and-overlook-on-draft-day/

Doesn’t he have a sky high fumble rate though. Any concerns on that. Thanks for your analysis btw

In the first game? Pats only had 76 rushing yards. With 3.0 ypc. Brady had a ton of yards but we were threatening down less than a score in the 4th.

Could be the medical with Ziggy but I think the talent in the draft is having an effect too.

Even if he’s injured I was expecting more than this. This was a crazy deal if he returns to form.

Haha. Not only Mack but you wouldn’t take wentz? Allen too scary too? Do you think you should reconsider if those players are freaks? Also American is meh but it’s not terrible. Their brand is P6. They might be better than PAC12 which has struggled lately.

He anchors against double teams well. Not sure what else he needs weight for. I sorta wish they had just broken down last years snaps and grades and not the last 3 years. Tillery’s pass rush score was what I noted most about that presentation. He was better rusher from nose and non nose. I’m sure he’s worse against the run.

So it could definitely be an outlier year but I think he’s always brought a fair amount of pressure. I couldn’t find the PFF rankings but if the above is to be believed then Mack is probably excelling in the run game. Since this is the NFL and contracts matter a bit I think Jerry’s 9 mil cap hit would be a lot more valuable than Lawrence or Clowney 20 mil hits (speculating on clowneys)

Actually it was said in the thread he had the highest edge productivity (pressure on 20% of his rushes seems really good). So... can we say he’s really good now?

I think he didnt get the market he wanted in FA. So hes doing a prove it deal to increase the $$s he gets on a long term deal. I think this year he wasnt happy with the $$'s on the multi year deals he saw.

Spain's tape on playside reach and combo blocks is really good. He has seemed to struggle pulling and walling off the backside. Generally I think the line will be above average but not great. I think that with an above average receiving corp will result in a lot of good. Crazy to think we are only like 17th in OL spending after this FA (similar with WR).

The focus on the short game bit ignoring Beasley was frustrating. Also there was a weird part of John Brown is only a deep option but he doesnt have a lot of TDs over 30 yards or something. Surprised he didn’t fit the silly Allen had the longest time to throw of anyone in the league in there.

Great spot by the OP. I put his tape in. Whyte looks a lot like shady. Could use some work on blocking but will make folks miss. def worth a flier.

Allen was the one QB I didn’t want but I also said I trust them to do whatever. They did use all of that trust on the Allen pick but they are slowly earning it back.

Agreed. But to further my point Allen’s completion percentage is likely related to system. He does need to process better but with an improved line and always open Beasley I think his numbers will improve a lot. Cam is a great example too because his percentage has increased from the addition of mccaffery

So this is a good way to think of why accuracy and completion percentage are different. I don’t think QBs got much more accurate. I think they started targeting a lot more shorter throws. The Dilfer line is that completion percentage is a system and processing stat but not necessarily an accuracy stat

Can someone just repost the eisner show with Dilfer. I can maybe get on board with completion percentage over a career is accuracy, but I still think its a processing measure. This analysis with Brady would be super interesting. I'm not sure hes accurate any more, he is still the best processor of information in the league. Thus his completion percentage is still high. The OP was originally a way to get some steam off for all the "Allen is inaccurate" posts. I'm down with the analysis in the OP that allen is accurate. Can he process quicker and take easier throws? Yes! Would that help his completion %? Yes! Would that help us win? Yes! Is Josh Allen inaccurate? Not more than other QBs is my thought.

The cover1 guys turned me on to him. Yeah his Purdue tape was good.

I recommend watching a full game of his or two on youtube (search "nkeal harry vs") he particularly plays big against utah. Its not just the highlights. Hes working every play, and he brings some of his biggest plays when his team needs it in the 4th quarter. He really popped off the screen to me relative to other WRs. Heres Oregon. This was probably the game he struggled the most but if he makes two catches that he drops he has a really good game and ASU might win. Either way I think Oregon was super keyed in on him after he scorched them in 2017. This is Utah which he was huge

Agreed. I just saw some wild numbers being thrown around in the thread. Wanted to pump the brakes a bit. As I said I think they can maneuver. Also thanks for putting this together.

Agreed we can maneuver. But based on the available cap and the front loaded contracts we've given; do you see us giving out more than one big contract?

Can we double check the maths? 45 mil -10 for rooks - 10 carry into the season - 7 for Ty - 2 for Gore - 4 for feliciano - 2 for roberts. Thats 7 left for a contract. Without cuts to Ivory and Ducasse. I think enough to get one big contract done but not much more. The cover 1 guys think its a DL or DE. I think they are right.

If it happens I think they would be ok with it. But based on their activity they are certainly not looking to get him

Am I reading this tweet is from 2012?