YattaOkasan

You mentioned in another post that we might extend him (I assume to get his cap number down?). I wouldnt mess with his number next year as its very favorable at 9 mil. I would consider guaranteeing that number and give him a few non guaranteed years on the back end. At 30 I am expecting a cliff in the near future but his contract for next year looks great. Agree that cutting next year may not be the right path cause it only saves $6 mil. Liked a lot of your work in this thread. Thanks.

I remember some weird decisions in bills games. like 2019 when he decided to send his kicker out for 53 yard FG on 4th and 5 when said kicker had missed 2 shorter FGs already and they were down a TD. I remember being shocked they were even attempting it and of course it was also a miss.

Are you complaining about high level narratives in a thread titled "oversimplification" sheesh. Agree 1/4 in RZ is not great and is a dip from what we typically do. If you wanna keep an eye on it sure. Would also say we scored on 6/9 of drives prior to the game being out of hand (shakir TD). That is a great number for a jets d only allows scores on 34% of its drives. 38.5% is league average against a top 5 defense (4/9 after Shakir TD which is good). Why is that a challenge or struggle or whatever misspelling word you were trying to say? Take away the run by Shakir and we still did better than average against the Jets and the whole 4th quarter we didnt try. In fact you rely a lot on stats after the Shakir TD to make your points (RZ being the exception). Nothing from the offense after the Shakir TD should be used for concern or confidence cause its not very representative. Its not all sunshine and rainbows for sure, but that performance from Sunday beats the performance from either the Chiefs or Eagles last night. Now we need to see it consistently which has for sure been a problem.

Sure but we got the second most total yard against the Jets in the past two season (and that was with us taking the foot off the gas in the 4th quarter). So is the score inflated yes, but we did move the ball on that defense.

is this true? We gave up 29 to the Pats who are a bad offense and 24 to the broncos who aint great either. On the flip side we held Miami in check as well as Cinci and Jax (not killer offenses i know). I dont think its as simple as we do well against bad offenses.

Statistics either.

Assuming others have said it, but this is great cause it makes it harder to shorten the game on us. Yeah you can still pick on LB but just running the ball down our throats now is gonna be tough.

Butch Byrd to the wall already please. leads the franchise in interceptions when the ball was not being tossed around as much.

Joe Marino did a podcast on it last year. I think completion % in the middle of the field was really low. But overall not worth the salary he got and Bernard offers abilities they desire more

For sure but must of the talk here has been positive and as I said his ceiling looks high. Like any rookie he looks inconsistent. Guess I would point you to spencer brown, another 3rd round/high ceiling player we had to depend on as a rookie. People were so thrilled with him (people thought his absence was why we lost the jags game) and then realized he wasn’t reliable. I see willams in a similar light. Def doesn’t have to turn out the same but I’m not taking improvement as a guarantee and right now it’s got some big lows. would also note I didn’t mind the draft pick at the time as much as others that loathed it. I think it looks better in hindsight and the logic is clear (need good play behind Milano in case of injury). Just like Kincaid I think we should temper our expectations.

I think his giants film for the most part is pretty rough but did show flashes so I’ll be super happy with a push. Cover 1 did a good breakdown (though they are higher than I am). He was responsible for two explosive plays (believe the other two were the perfect drop in a bucket throws by TT). Additionally he got beat by the same TE crossing pattern later in the game and Poyer saved his bacon. The flashes though were pretty great (Barkley coverage and taking in a pulling C) so I see the upside but if the giants can take advantage of him I’m worried what a better offense can do.

Sure but I guess which holds the defender longer. seems a bit harder to find the ball when one player could be running the opposite direction from the RB (versus standing next to them or not running as fast)

What seems to matter (and would like to see some data) is if the formation is under center or not. My thought is under center the ball gets hidden better and thus the LBs come a bit further forward. I also suspect a down and distance aspect to this. 3 & 10 is not gonna bring the LBs up as much as 3 & 3.

Im wondering too how much we turned their revolutionary wrinkle into a detriment. Looked to me like the Bills were using the motion as an offensive key to their defense. So maybe we know were sending a creeper pressure but dont know whos dropping into coverage (probably based on which side the motion is on) and whos coming (probably based off of responsibilities on the back end, so dependent on who went into motion). This type of defense would be killer cause while the defense will all know whats going on like normal (assuming rather heady players), the offense cant get a read cause the defense isnt declared til that final motion which is right before the ball is snapped. Will be asking film geeks about that this week.

That kick in the rain on grass from 50+ before half was so good. Very high leverage. If he misses then commanders have the ball at the 45 with plenty of time and only down 13-0 and looking to double dip.

I agree with this line of thought. Kincaid is top half of the league in receptions for his position and so is Cook. We are getting more production out of non WR than ever. I dont see how were "handicapped." Were number two scoring offense again yet we are "crippled" by our OL or last years OL was a "disaster." Sorta dont understand the logic of saying OL is important (maybe posters are saying OL doesnt matter with JA17 at QB) but our OL is a disaster. The data doesnt support those two things being true.

Agree both Miami Defense and our Offense have not been as good as expected. I will say we can at least point to two good defenses for our struggles. Chargers can move the ball, but 20 first downs to the Patriots could be a bit concerning. The best think Miami's defense has going for them is turnovers which can be mecurial (though its our worst offensive attribute).

What Miami's Offense did against Denver was obviously historic but I think what our Defense did against the commanders is also pretty historic. The strength versus strength battle this week is gonna be fascinating.

No sweat. might just be me, but it hit tough.

pretty rough moment to meme.

Honestly considering that Commanders have multiple WR options with speed I wouldnt be surprised to see him to start this game (not sure who gets inactivated though). I think hes our counter to teams like Miami that have speedsters.

We have seen Tre be second in DPOY. If he’s all the way back he’s an easy answer cause he’s in his prime. I also like Milano flying all over the field. Knox has it in his ceiling to be a special player. He has shown growth over his career. Last year he was overcoming the death of his brother (example #88 of why last was such a mess). I could see another step this year from him. so that’s three more to add to your list of 4. Cases could be made for more good players (Johnson and Davis) in their prime continuing to grow into big stars. Yes I wish we could have more rookie contract players that are easy to project into superstars but we have elite talent at the most important position and a ton of talent in their prime. We have seen Tre be second in DPOY. If he’s all the way back he’s an easy answer cause he’s in his prime. I also like Milano flying all over the field. Knox has it in his ceiling to be a special player. He has shown growth over his career. Last year he was overcoming the death of his brother (example #88 of why last was such a mess). I could see another step this year from him. so that’s three more to add to your list of 4. Cases could be made for more good players (Johnson and Davis) in their prime continuing to grow into big stars. Yes I wish we could have more rookie contract players that are easy to project into superstars but we have elite talent at the most important position and a ton of talent in their prime.

Good analysis but we also became very deep heavy after the injury against the jets. So it makes sense why teams put extra coverage while Saffold got worse by the week.

That’s fine. If he puts up 6.5 sacks again he’ll get another contract from someone (probably not us).

Did you miss the part where the unnamed team would pay him what he wants. Sorta exclude the jets with their cap situation.