YattaOkasan

Don’t disagree the WR aren’t holding their end of the bargain. I had them as 5-10 in the league before the year. Now I think they are 10-14. Crazy cause I still consider diggs top 5. An average WR2 would probably get them back to 5-10

I guess. Trying to dissect this a bit is hard. First thing in my mind is his time to throw has stayed high. I think we also still run a ton of option routes which are not anticipation throws. I actually don’t consider a criticism. Having the ability to wait until peeps have separation shows the ability to have great arm strength. Allows adjustment to post snap coverage changes. Lastly I think it’s how he can convert 3rd and Josh Allen’s. Hard to anticipate 3rd and long plays versus short plays

Yeah that’s the challenge is pff is the only source really. I think more OL focused peeps have some better ones though. But PFF also has morse at 51. I don’t think that checks out

Back to the OP. I think it’s how Josh plays. He throws when he sees separation as the ball travels that separation decreases and the YAC is diminished. In other offenses that are based on timing the ball is thrown before separation. When the ball gets there the separation is maximized and thus more YAC. I don’t know that Josh will ever be a high end YAC guy. I hope for average.

Lol well have to disagree on this point. I think he’s average to just below. Need to find a good set of stats to reference. But not in NFL is comical. You clearly don’t watch other teams enough let alone what backups look like.

You mean his weakness is speed rush? Yes I find that strange too. But bills have a type on OL. Joe Marino said their average RAS is 9.3! probably shave some off aged vet Saffold but he was athletic when he came out.

Those are the weak points of our OL but I think you are making them out to be worse than they are. Though ive come around to Saffold is being overpaid so would be happy to get some young blood there. Lastly how do you see them as the reason for us losing? Our run game is humming and our TOs are coming from a clean pocket more often than not. How will they cause harm? Penalties is the only stat I havent looked up. Everything else isn’t a liability.

I agree. Pff grading is garbage so not using that. Kromer has got the run game humming now. Took some different approaches to get there (tackle pulls) but our RB are really producing since the bye. Also the OL is not really a problem in the pass game (bottom half in sacks, hurries, hits, pressures though a lot of that is Josh). Problem in the pass game is drops (obviously not OL) and INT. A very high number of Josh’s INT come from a clean pocket so hard to blame them. I think the OL is rounding out very nicely.

Yeah sorta wanted Bal to win so it want hat and t shirt. But cinci doesn’t seem to care. They seem to keep talking about the 1 seed and being the top dog. I get it I guess but I would be laser focused on the division as that’s a must have. The 1 seed is much more a nice to have. If cinci doesn’t win tonight then next week is against Bal is for the division. Hope the focus on the 1 seed bites Cinci and they lose the division.

We play zone so it depends on where he lines up. I don’t expect anyone to follow chase.

That TB game was crazy too. Can’t believe they are getting so much credit for what was a TB implosion

The talk of 1 seed for Cinci still feels off to me. Maybe McD has gotten to me but take care of your division first. I hear bengals talking about the 1 seed and it sorta gets me excited. Missing the 1 seed is not the end of the world but losing the division would be. I find it interesting that they are more focused on the shiny 1 seed then the more critical division.

Go watch the first half of the TB game by the bengals. Cinci didn’t get to TB territory until the 2 minute drill. It wasn’t anything too flukey like in the NE game. Disguise coverage and drop non coverage players. Also burrow has had a bit of trouble with 8 man coverage. Few ways to stop them. These are all things we have done before with Frazier. I agree it won’t be easy but it’s doable.

It is their weakness but they have a very good DVOA against #1 receivers (bills are bad against number #1s but throttle all others). I think Davis will really need to get going on the boundary.

Everyone does. But do it like diggs and roast them on the field. You can even let them know after. No need to try to hurt a player. That stuff can escalate and I don’t want another injury on our side. Honestly I am hoping apple talks smack to diggs. On the 3 man rush and pressure, I think (and others have said) this is a game where coverage sets up pass rush. They don’t want to run and burrow gets the ball out quicker than anyone than Brady. With their line being a bit banged up you need to get burrow off his first read to allow the rush to get home. Check out some of Anthony Prohaskas from cover 1 film review from Wednesday. He shows how TB did great in the first half to get Burrow to have to process the coverage which let the rush get home.

This. Bengals are still playing for division. I don’t understand why everyone keeps talking about their outside shot for the 1 seed. If I’m them I’m focused on winning division. Maybe the 1 seed enters my mind if Denver pulls off the upset. Coming up short on the 1 seed isn’t the end of the world. Coming up short on the division would be a disaster for them.

Agree it’s a good win. But it’s also a strange one. More yards than we had but also more turnovers. I think both teams went into Foxboro and took care of business and both are great wins. I’ll give us the slight nod on game script. We were a bit slow out the gate but did very well in the second half with a huge drive that ate over half a quarter. That took everything out of the game and if we have that type of drive Monday we will win. Oddly bengals had that weird hold on for dear life game with the pick six and chase fumble after a near perfect first half. Burrow is usually great in the 4th quarter so it was a bit weird to see them struggle.

This thread needs these stats reposted. Teams are targeting him and yes he got burned by waddle and hill in man. But outside that he’s been great. He almost completed the slice replace for a pick last week. He’s rounding out well.

Agree it’s def cause of his injury. But it def also limits him in this game. Why else would they reduce his snap count? Do you think he plays 60% if the snaps (he played 43% last week)? I also think with these offenses we’re gonna see a lot of plays (59 plays is the lowest the bills have since the bye). As we both agree he’s a good player and so the less we see of him the better.

Agreed and I think beane sees other teams spending big on WR lately and is waiting for the market to swing in his favor (Shakir in the 5th is a good example this draft). I think this upcoming year may be a good time to draft early as some talent may slip. RB: what? You didn’t look at their stats did you. Bengals are one of the worst YPC and total yards. Their backs catch the ball but they are not as good running. DL you are also underselling the bills. No Hubbard and Hendrickson getting out snapped by sample and Ossai last game means their DEs are not as good. Inside Reader is great but they don’t have a lot more after that. I see a lot of areas that we should be able to do well. Biggest concern is the gap at WR (or pass catcher to include RB/TE) may be bigger than the gap at any other position group.

Agree with everything but CB. NCB is a push but Jackson/Elam > Cam Taylor Britt and Tre > Eli Apple (hope he talks trash to Diggs) Not sure about this game. Mike Hilton is a very good slot corner and I don’t remember Cole having good games against the Steelers the last 2 seasons. But it’s not true. He’s about to be the first player to have 4000+ passing and 750+ rushing in two consecutive seasons. 36/15 is very similar to 32/13. His passer rating and QBR are both up. How is it true that he’s not having the same year? Stats from pro football reference

Sure but the odds are no different considering our starting point from a pure numbers point. Clearly the starting point matters being down von and other factors.

Not really how that works. It’s like offering someone the odds and payout of an 11 game win streak after they have already one the first 6. You’re getting great odds for a 5 game win streak and you should take it all the time.

So many pages and i finally can describe why FG. both options (FG and TD) have the same outcomes (fail=tie, success=win). So consider the likelihood either fails. Missing a FG from that distance (even with the elements) is ~2% to me. The FG operation has been so good this season and has plenty of opportunity to practice in the elements. For the TD, the fail is giving up a TD when a team has 1 TO and 40 seconds. I think that has a 5% chance of happening considering the dolphins WR and our problems at the catch point. this analysis shows it was absolutely the right decision. If you disagree you must come up with different probabilities of what would happen.

Tre is a great spider man. Glad they didn’t complicate it with dion. Captain rocket seems a bit better for josh. Overall was pretty good “original” designs. I might need a copy