TheWei44

Thanks for the response - I think a lot of what you're saying cuts both ways (e.g., tipping your hand re prime plays) and I was making the huge simplifying assumption of treating the two as independent events. But point well taken and agreed!!

Agreed, I was treating them as independent events. But I think you'd need a strong basis to assume that they can't be approximately treated as independent. That is, how does the very recent game specifically impact the next game?

This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin. That's not true. It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win). But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game. No reason for the odds to change. We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%.

Free rolling tonight (to use a poker analogy)!! Go Bills!!

Exactly the sort of close, sloppy game we want!!

Sticking with our usual to avoid any jinxing: Eating Jet's (pizza). But drinking Labatt's too and maybe some scotch for the nerves!

Yep, as it has been for a while, this is essentially another playoff game for us. We're battle tested!! Go Bills!!

Ravens and Titans are 3 to 4 point dogs - So assume each has 30% chance of winning and give Bills 60% chance on Sunday night. Then the probability of all three "bad" events occurring is (70%)*(70%)*(40%) = 19.6%. So those estimates imply 80% chance Bills get into playoffs one way or another.

Oliver and Douglas on Defense; Kincaid and Cook on Offense!! Go Bills - Punch them in the mouth all game (without drawing flags, ideally)!!

I think crummy weather in Balt. is a good thing - Can be an equalizer and allow for some flukey stuff that we might want. Who knows?

Not sure about getting to Superbowl but a somewhat underrated aspect of the Bills recent success is the defense. If the D continues its current trajectory, and the O gets a bit more on track, we'll be a tough out, especially in Buffalo.

Bills 38 Fish 24

Nothing against Diggs at all or the person who started this thread. But I am sick and tired of hearing about all these records being broken that are very much dependent on the number of games in a season//changes to the rules favoring passing//etc. If more games are played, it's easier to achieve any total by the end of the season or multiple seasons . . . Sorry, rant over!!

Here's some changes I'd make: Virtually no offensive snaps for Sherfield - He has been disappointing. Consider swapping Murray for Fournette. Murray seems to only be key for tush push but assume Lenny could do that too. Murray has been underwhelming to my eye. I've been quietly hoping the old Von would emerge but given how well things went yesterday, I am fine sitting him from here on out. Bills just need to play a complete game and take notes from Balt game and our earlier season game against them. Separately, I put our odds of getting into the playoffs in any fashion at 100% minus (40%)*(65%)*(65%) where the three percentages are (Bills loss)(Pitt win)(Jags win), so ~83%. Just can't have all three bad things happen!!

Oliver, Miller on D Davis, Kincaid on O

Weather seems a little iffy with some snow. NE if nothing else has a good defense. Bills 27 Pats** 17

One interesting thing, though, is that the Ravens might be extra motivated to beat Fins because it would essentially give them 3 weeks off! Kind of a double bye. They could rest starters Week 18.

#3 seed is impossible. Only way for us to win division is to win out (and for Miami to lose vs Baltimore). If we win out, our record is better than Jags and we win tiebreaker vs Chiefs (if they win out too, doesn't come into play otherwise). Thus, only seed for us as a division winner is #2.

Yep, to be clear, we can only get the #2 seed if we win the division - 1, 3, and 4 can't happen.

I meant he has a problem winning too!

Not sure if it's been stated above or not, but if we win out and win division, we are definitely the #2 seed. And if we're in as a wild card, we're almost definitely #6 or #7. So #3 and #4 (and #1) aren't possible. It's basically 2, 6, or 7 if we're in the playoffs (with very slim chance of #5).

And a winning problem.

But didn't look under control either. Close call obviously.

I thought that at first too. But the replay showed the ball was out and hit the ground for sure. At least to my eye.

I'll reserve judgment until after the season - He's enigmatic for sure. That said, at the right price, I'd lean toward keeping him on the team. When he does contribute in obvious ways, it tends to be massive and game changing.