GunnerBill

Yea it tracks. I mean they took Polk a full round ahead of where his talent shoud have had him because they wanted a "bigger body."

I'm going just under..... I think slight uptick in passing TDs, slight drop off in rushing TDs

He is the best run game coordinator of his generation and tbh it isn't close. He has even had productive run games with patchwork offensive lines. His passing game design isn't as innovative and when people think "creative" offensive coordinators they immediately think pass game. That said, Ben Johnson is MUCH more creative a run game coordinator than he is a pass game coordinator (his pass game is pretty vanilla tbh), but he has the look of young up and coming offensive mind so maybe there is something in Greg Roman's presentation that influences perceptions too.

Honestly coming out he was a 4/10. Solid 8 now. The facial hair has helped.

Not sure Kincaid was a steal, but he certainly wasn't a reach either in that class. He went right in his window which kind of opened with the Chargers at #21. Edmunds and Oliver were both available at least 3 or 4 spots later than anyone expected. I know not technically a first rounder but I still think Keon Coleman was a bit of a reach at #33. Maybe the Pats would have taken him instead of Polk at #37 if we hadn't... but I think for skillset and talent he was picked at least half a round too early.

I think he will be, but for sure a disappointing one. And while O'Cyrus is a starting calibre guard he was still the weakest guy on our line in 2024. I am not sure long term 2023 or 2024 are gonna hold up well as classes. Hence why that 2022 group was kinda critical.

The 2022 draft was, despite a huge whiff on Elam, Beane's best class since 2018. It was critical too. 2023 only has two starters at this point though.

I wouldn't have tanked any previous year as the Steelers. I would have considered it this time though. They tried loading up on skill guys around a diminished starter (Big Ben), they tried staying patient in the draft and take the guy that gets to you (Pickett) and they tried a storied vet on a roster with talent (Wilson). None of them was the answer. Especially if the plan was to give away Pickens and Minkah anyway. Replacing them with older vets and then signing Rodgers and then paying Watt a huge deal aged 30 (about to turn 31) just feels uber short termist as a strategy. Makes me wonder if Tomlin is already thinking he is done after 2025.

I have a slightly different take. The first two years was on the team IMO not on AJE. They drafted a player, then completely stripped his game and his body down to try and rebuild him. If Epenesa had performed years 1 and 2 like he did years 3 through 5 I think he'd be considered a pretty solid 2nd round pick as a rotational pass rusher. Not a difference maker, sure, but you don't find a ton of 2nd round pass rushing edge guys that are. I agree, doubtful he is on the roster next year, but I think people perceptions of him as a second round pick are still largely driven by a very disappointing first two years.

Wade was 28 when he quit Union to try American Football, but agree this situation is very different.

The shortcomings as a passer are waaaaaay fewer now than they were when he won his first MVP. He won that first MVP basically throwing only between the hashes and as a low volume passer. Last year was the first year Jackson went for over 4,000 yards as a passer. Allen has four of those seasons. That is the distinction I am making. Lamar has always been an exceptional athlete and that kept him in the top half dozen Quarterbacks even when as a passer he was pretty unrefined. He is now legitimately elite as a passer too. That is the gap that has closed.

Yea I don't think he was an elite QB when he won the first MVP. I am not saying it was a fluke season, but it was a freak season.

I don't think people would see AJE as a disappointment if his first 2 seasons matched seasons 3, 4 & 5. And I put more of that on the Bills than the player. Of the three "failures" on our list only Cody even made it to the end of year 3. Zay was traded early in his 3rd year, and Boogie before his 3rd year.

Yea my bad I'd speed read and got wrong way round. It makes the Bills slightly below average at 3/6 - 50%.

Ah, got you. My apologies. In which case the Bills are below average at 50%.

He kinda has to. I give him a bit of a pass last year - the D wasn't the best collection of talent and he was a rookie DC. But hopefully they have upgraded talent wise and his experience will show through.

While I wouldn't argue the defense played well in this most recent AFCCG.... it did "hold up" and make a couple of plays when it needed to in order to give the offense the ball and a chance to win the game. They couldn't get it done. It is not as simple as "improve the defense" to me. They still need a game breaker in the pass game for those situations. And they haven't.

No they play touring American High Schools I believe.

The NFL Academy is based in Loughborough in the midlands it's about 150 miles from me. I understand they did play a game at Tottenham last year (which is just up the road) but I was out of the country at the time. Otherwise they played in Loughborough and Germany.

Ha definitely not seen him play. But I will keep a close eye on his progress. Good luck to him. Would be remarkable if he can do enough in college to be drafted someday.

The number is higher up the thread. Only about 25% of second rounders see out their entire rookie deals on their original team.

And as pointed about above it is how many reach the end of their rookie deal, not how many sign a second deal. So agree Cook should could and it is 3/6. I didn't say it was bad. I know it is better than average.

Awesome post. Agree 100%.

Agree. 35th to 45th.

But of the 5 that have reached "2nd contract" point it's 3/5 that have not made it.