GunnerBill

Outside backer more than a hand in the dirt DE and doesn't really move the dial for me. He is an upgrade, sure. But I wouldn't give up much for it.

Yea I also always thought it was a given that the Bills would extend him. I didn't think it was a given that extending him was a good idea but I said in multiple places if you could get him at $15m AAV then it was a good idea. And the Bills have. Details to come but I think the Bills won this deal and Khalil took a bit less for a chance to stay here and (as you rightly say Alpha) the security of a deal that pays a former 5th rounder life changing money.

Hmm. I think two things on this.... 1. Shakir's 2024 is about the median year for Courtland Sutton. Okay, at this stage that is a career year for Shakir and if it still looks that way halfway through this deal it will have been an overpay, but if he can consistently be in the 800 yard range (I think he can personally) it will look better. 2. Courtland Sutton signed his deal halfway through the 2021 season. It is three and a half years old. The salary cap has rocketed by over 50% in that period. The Broncos and Sutton are in talks currently about extending him again. It won't be for anything close to $15m, he will get way more.

Yea and he is physical freak. He is in the top 20 of my big board and I think he absolutely will go day 1.

Ah got it. No idea how they calculate that. I'd be surprised if there are any cap savings from this deal.

I can't see that the link just sends me back to the overall Bills cap table?

There may. I don't think any of us are in a position to assess that. If he falls, that is likely why. Although also fair to say his 2024 tape was a considerable step up on what he had done before. But it was dominant.

Interesting. Some similarities at the top of the edge class with the exception of Ezeiruaku who I am a fair bit lower on. But the rest of your top 6 is my top 5 if that makes sense. On DTs I'm higher on Nolen. He is DT2 for me then have Harmon and Grant same order as you do just below him. TJ Sanders is my DT5. I am considerably lower on Alexander. Him being about 28 is probably a semi-conscious bias there though 🤣

How? It's $3.4m now. The vet min salary for Shakir in 2025 is $1.1m. But there will be a signing bonus to be amortised on the cap. For a saving of $1.8m that would have to be just a $2.5m signinf bonus spread over 5 years (the current year and the 4 new ones) and no way his agent has let him take that.

It does, I think, kill off the prospect of the blockbuster vet receiver trade in 2025. That was always my take. Shakir I'd do if you could get him in at $15m AAV - so long as you have a plan for outside receiver that you think is cost effective in terms of vet FA or draft. You gotta give Josh one guy at least he knows he can trust and who is going to be here. I expect as well when we see the details the Bills are tied to him for 2025, 2026 and 2027, there is an expensive out that they could take but would rather not in 2028 and then a much cheaper out that they might take depending on performance in 2029.

Yes but the amortised signing bonus kicks in immediately. I imagine they have reduced his 2025 salary from the planned $3.4m down to the vet min $1.1m which "saves" you $2.3m but then I bet the amortised signing bonus is in $2-3m per year range. So best case is it is about cap neutral for 2025. There are ways you can get creative and try and eek some cap savings out with smaller signing bonus big guaranteed restructure bonus in 2026... so guarantee Khalil his $1.1m base salary in 2025, plus say a $6m initial signing bonus spread over 5 years (the one remaining rookie contract year and the four new ones at about $1.2m per year) so you have given him $7m in money straight away which is double what he would have earned in 2025 on the rookie deal. Then guarantee his 2026 salary at say $6m plus a guranteed built in restructure bonus of $19m (which gets you to the reported $32m in total guarantees) which would then spread the $19m out over only the 4 years of the new deal so he would have a standing amortisation charge of $1.2m (original signing bonus) and $4.75m (restructure bonus) in all four years of the new deal which means basically the minimum he could ever cost on the cap those remaining years would be c. $6m... and you'd still have to add an average of $9m per year of non-guaranteed salary to that to round out the $60m. Personally not sure that is worth it in order to find another $1m of cap space in 2025. I'd expect a more coventional structure something like: Base salary in 2025: $1.1m (vet min for him) Total signing bonus: $12.5m Amortised signing bonus charge in 2025: $2.5m Total 2025 cap hit: $3.5m

I disagree that you can get another year from Douglas. I am paying that man not another dime to start at corner for me. He was woeful in 2024.

Mahomes was getting it out in 1.7 seconds. It wasn't pressure that was the issue it was coverage.

Against KC the problem was too much man rather than not enough of it.

Davis sucked at pass blocking this year. There honestly wasn't much between he and Cook in it. The only back we had on the roster who could pass block reliably was Ty.

It's a really fair question. In a prototypical X sense, no. Brown has probably the best shot - he was an X in college but has been mainly a Z for the Commanders because of the presence of McLaurin. But I think they can all win veritcally outside and that is a major need for Buffalo even if they would still be without a pure X. I mean they seem to think Coleman is an X. He isn't.

He did and in fairness to Keon it was the only two games I think they worked out what he is. Unfortunately by the time he returned they had gotten away from Coop for whatever reason and he was back to being their main boundary threat and he is never going to be that.

It depends who the alternative to Josh is, right? If they had taken Baker Mayfield (in a world where Cleveland takes Josh).... I think they'd have won some divisions and might have a playoff win or two. If they'd taken Josh Rosen they'd be out of a job. If they'd taken Lamar Jackson, they'd still be here. If they'd passed on drafting a guy and signed Kirk Cousins who was the big ticket FA that year they'd be in a similar place to with Mayfield.

I'm not asking Josh to play better to be clear. I've said consistently this is not a Josh Allen problem. But the offense, in those big moments does have to execute. While I agree the D is more to "blame" and is where more of the fix needs to be if we are getting the ball back with a chance to win the game and the clock in our favour and despite having #17 our O is not able to execute.... that is a problem that needs fixing. To ignore that would be folly IMO. Because let's say the D does improve significantly and it gets 10 points on average better vs KC's offense in the playoffs. I don't think that means the Bills win these games by two scores. I think they would still be one score games that would come down to which team executes at the end. That is just what these games are. It might be 25-22 instead of 32-29 but they are still going to be games that go to the wire. It is just how the two teams play each other. So maybe it comes down to the D at the end and our significantly improved defense makes a stand and stops the Chiefs on 4th down. But maybe it still comes down to the offense having the ball last and needing to execute the game winning drive. The D is the bigger fix. It is the priority to fix. No question. But they cannot ignore that two years running despite an all world QB the offense has failed to execute in those high leverage moments. If they do, that is a mistake.

$15m was my ceiling number and this is pretty much bang on it (and sounds from reporting as though some is incentive driven). Khalil has taken a little bit less than he'd have to on the open market I suspect. Presumably he decided staying here with Josh was best for him long term. Let's wait and see the detail which, as ever, matters. But on the face of it it's a fair deal.

I that is just who he is as a character. He does seem different than their usual type, but then Ed Oliver is a little bit too in a different way.

Or has either player shown any developments on the known weaknesses they displayed in college? And my answer there is no they haven't. Is it too early to say they can't? Of course it is. But ideally you'd see more signs of progress. It's a massive offseason / pre-season for both.

Not being groomed to be anything. He is who he is and has always been. We can hope a switch goes on at some point and he becomes a different player - but it's just that - hope.

On Horton, I do like him, he is just outside my top 10.... 12 or 13 I think (11 is Felton and then 12 and 13 are Horton and the kid from Stanford but can't remember which order I have them as not got my board right in front of me). My big worry is play strength. Texas pressed him a fair bit at the line and got physical with him and they got they better of him as a result. I suppose I think he is a bit Troy Franklin in that sense. If you are looking for a field stretcher with speed outside, I think he offers that. But I think his frame is naturally wirey and I'm not sure how easy he is going to find it to build muscle and improve the play strength while retaining the explosiveness. That caps the ceiling a little bit for me. Secondary concern is he basically only ran two routes at Colorado State, but that is more a them thing than a him thing and you'd think he could pick more up with NFL coaching.

Sure, and if in either of the two cases the offense had scored and then KC had immediately responded with seconds remaining a la 13 seconds, we'd be having a different conversation. But the fact remains in the last 3 playoff games the Bills O had the ball with the clock in their favour to go and score a game winning touchdown. They are 1/3. You have to fix that as well as improve the defensive performance against KC in the post season. Because whether they are low scoring or high scoring history of the past few years tells us Bills - KC always goes down to the end. So you need whichever side of the ball it comes down to in those spots to be capable of winning the high leverage moments. And while I definitely think it is right to be more concerned about the D than the O in those situations, there are legit concerns on both sides.