GunnerBill

Remember the season ender in 2023 where Rapp intercepted Tua because Claypool ran completely the wrong route. I said when he came out he is a big fast guy who runs well in straight lines and is a weapon after the catch. But his releases were terrible, his cuts sloppy, his overall route running below par and his hands aren't brilliant either. I thought someone might try and convert him into a receiving tight end / H-Back at some point.

Physical talent, sure. If you just mean the size/speed combo. Football talent? Disagree.

In the UK it is 2 weeks statutory paternity leave for the father and then up to another 2 weeks unpaid. The Government has just announced a review though because I believe that is one of the least generous systems in Europe. Even as someone who doesn't have and doesn't want kids I can't imagine why anyone would object to fathers having time off with their newborn children in 2025. It's not 1950. I actually get much more annoyed by the next 16 years or so of "sorry I can't do that meeting that is literally my job but doesn't finish until 6pm because I have to collect my kid from choir/football practice." My view on that is if it is your job and you have reasonable notice (i.e. you know a couple of days in advance) then it is your responsibility to make arrangements. And as the quid pro quo for that whenever your kid is taken ill at school or falls off a climbing frame or whatever else and you need to leave work at the drop of a hat to deal with an emergency I will say "yep, go, we will cover."

Chiefs will win the West. I think they are better this year than last.

Beane himself described his 2018 roster build (particularly offense) as "a horrible job" in the end of season presser

I wouldn't say the Ravens have done "far less" than the Bills in the playoffs but between the Big 3 of the AFC in the playoffs since they became the Big 3 the records are: Kansas City 5-0 Bills 2-4 Ravens 0-3 Until Baltimore beats either the Bills or the Chiefs in the playoffs I'm always gonna have them 3rd most likely of the 3 to win a Superbowl. Chiefs clearly the most likely. I do think of those three going into THIS season though the Ravens have by far the strongest roster on paper. Their guard positions are a bit of a question mark and their pass rush is similar to the Bills in that it is a lot of guys but not a GUY unless Mike Green hits right off the bat, but everywhere else they are in pretty good shape.

I'm not, no. I like Josh Palmer, I do. But if he is your main boundary down field guy to try and get defenses to fear your outside receivers and defend the full 53 and a third yards then you are asking more of him than has been asked of him previously. He doesn't have the reputation of Amari Cooper who he is replacing either. So he isn't going to affect defenses even on plays where he doesn't touch the ball. He will have to prove he is a viable threat in that role for teams to respect him. Is it possible? Sure. I don't think it is in any way a given though. And Elijah Moore is a nice floor raiser, with a certain skillset but again there are significant limitations in his game. As for Keon. I'm in you gotta show me it. Go read my posts about him right back before the draft, hell before the combine in 2024. The exact player I described is the player that was there on tape in the NFL as a rookie. Maybe he takes a big jump, but unless the Bills are willing to commit to him as a full time big slot type (and they won't because they have Shakir) then the same weaknesses that are on his film are going to hamper him I fear. We had a more explosive downfield passing game when we had Singletary and Moss. I'm fine with bang average backs like those two if the passing game is dynamic. Indeed that is my preference for how the team be built. But right now, it isn't built that way. If the Bills don't extend Cook before the season and their passing game can make more explosive plays no relying on Josh in scramble mode I will be all in on let Cook walk and draft another mid round back I promise you. But I am sceptical about them having done enough for the passing game to make that step. Yes. TFLs are bad for running backs. You want fewer, not more. He was second in the NFL. Only Gibbs was better at avoiding being tackled behind the line. And while of course blocking plays a part in that Cook was only 14th in the NFL in terms of yards before contact and was only a tick above the league average. So I don't think it is as easy as saying "oh its just the oline". The reason James Cook avoids tackles behind the line so well is he has ELITE vision for a running back. He sees holes that a ton of guys would miss. And he will find a way to get to that hole and pickup 1 or 2 where another back misses that hole and is dumped for a loss. And I'm sorry Johnson and Davis are not as good as Cook at that. They're not even close. Singletary is bang average. He's been a starter and lost it in three places. I don't know what you are seeing. He was good at wiggling around in the backfield making a guy miss then getting tackled by the second guy for a loss, sure. He isn't nearly as good as Cook at the quick movement of his feet to find a crease. Doesn't have the vision. Doesn't have the quick feet. That's why one is a back with two thousand yard seasons in the last two years and the other is likely battling for a roster spot on his 3rd team in three years. There are deals to be done with Cook that make sense for the Bills. Even if the AAV on it looks high. But yes, it would require Cook to be willing to leave the team flexibility. What he wants, presumably, is a bit of security beyond this year if he is going to play this year (which as I told this board when you were all speculating in spring - he 100% is going to) and what the Bills want is a bit of flexibility beyond that. I don't expect him to sign a long term deal with the Bills in camp at this stage but I can see a short extension that gives him some security and the Bills some flexibility as an option. Or he could just play without a deal. But he is going to play. And if he is healthy he is going to be the 2nd most dynamic player on this offense again. Then not paying him after 3 thousand yard seasons gets even harder.

Yea I don't think Von was elite by the time he got to the Bills in 2022. But he was still really good until the ACL. I don't think the Bills have a proven elite player on the OL - though if Brown can repeat 2024 maybe, but as a unit they were top 5 last year and health allowing can be again.

Harbaugh was successful in San Fran as well when he hadn't been an NFL HC before. So he is an example I think of college coach done well but with a strong NFL background. Carroll was an NFL HC, turned college HC, turned NFL HC again. I don't count him as a college coach converts to NFL success story.

Yea exactly. The Bills are so good at home. They might lose one or two. I doubt they lose more than that at home. And they could go unbeaten on the road

If a year ever set up for the Bills to get the #1 seed this is it.

Yea I'm not as convinced. I can see a world where Denver competes for the division but it the best case scenario for them IMO. I think the Chargers' ceiling remains a bit lower. Their floor is probably higher than Denver's, but I don't see much of a ceiling for them.

I don't think "realistic" for Denver is pipping KC to the division title. I think that is a potential optimistic scenario, sure. But realistically KC is still the class of that division. I actually think KC are stronger this year than last but wait for my bold predictions thread for more....

Tre was better than good. He was elite for 3 years in Buffalo. And he has only been away a year. 2 teams but one year. That said no question in a redraft TJ Watt goes higher. Elite pass rusher > elite corner.

From people I heard from Hairston was actually very open and front footed about it with teams pre-draft. That doesn't mean he didn't do anything wrong but I think teams felt like they did at least have his full side of the story.

My take is less that they'd have won the Superbowl had they kept Fox and more that they really shouldn't have won it with Kubiak. They were not a Superbowl standard winning team. Not even close IMO. The best team doesn't always win. I don't think the Broncos were a top 5 team the year they won the title. Sometimes you just get the breaks. Luck plays a major part. It is what it is - the history books will say the coaching change worked. I am sure that is the real truth of it.

Nope. I wouldn't have fired him. I also think the difference it made is overblown. The 2013 and 2014 Broncos were better per DVOA than the 2015 Broncos that won a Superbowl. They changed coach, got worse, but got a couple of breaks in the post season and won the title.

Again this "what would McDermott be with QBX" or "what would Allen by with HCY" are hypotheticals. It also depends heavily who are you replacing them with. Is it McDermott with a 5th-12th type QB? Or a 13th to 20th type QB? Or a bridge at best guy? Is the mythical head coach replacement for McDermott a proven NFL HC? Is it a hotshot coordinator or is it a guy who you seriously consider the basic competence of - see Hackett etc. I just don't know that it is a very fruitful line of argument. Quarterback matters more than Head Coach. We all know and accept that as a truism of the NFL and the Bills will always have a chance to be good with Josh Allen. But the Saints had four losing seasons in five years during the peak of a future first ballot HoF QB and a likely future HoF HC. The NFL is just way to complex and way to nuanced to ever boil down to 1+1 always = 2.

I think like your first sentence - they are unlikely to change a ton IMO. We would remain in the same stratosphere of championship contenderness (made up word). Though to be clear my argument for keeping McDermott has never been a "better the devil you know" argument. I think that is bad reason to retain a coach. Equally I think "look at this shiny thing over here I could have" is a bad reason to fire a coach. My view across all coaches and all sports is you fire a coach based on their performance when you believe he deserves to be fired not based on who is or isn't available to potentially replace them.

I agree with the first sentence and the third sentence. I don't agree with the middle one.

No I'm not. I'm saying creating stawman "what ifs" does nothing to further the discussion either way. Whether they are including things that didn't happen or excluding things that did. The record is the record.

I don't buy that. That team was so undermanned from a pure talent perspective. It wasn't just schematic or style. It was talent. Bill had failed to keep up with identifying the right guys to play in the 2020s NFL. He actually coached them up pretty good still. The Mac Jones year was in his top 5 coaching jobs as Pats HC imo.

Nope. You were talking about what might have happened if he hadn't played 7 seeds in the wildcard rounds. But he did. That's what happened.

He did build the roster for the 2nd dynasty though.... and that was a good roster. Their drafting late 00s early 10s was good and that is when he built the core of the team that won the 3 Superbowls vs Seattle, Atlanta and LA. The drafting fell off in about 2013/2014... which does suggest the league had passed him by a bit. I think the rule changes really started to accentuate the physical talent over the football smarts again and Bill didn't really keep up with that. He still wanted to draft guys who work hard, understand their assignment and do their job and then coach them to within an inch of their lives.

Stuff that you know, actually happened. Or stuff that might happen in the future. Not create narratives about stuff that we know didn't happen in the past so that we can rewrite history to support out own personal biases.