GunnerBill

What if we DID get a stop, give the offense 4 minutes, all 3 time outs and needing a touchdown to go to the Superbowl and they stalled out at midfield?

It's the Jets for me for some reason. We have owned the Dolphins for a long time even pre-dating Josh. Marrone and Rex both had decent records against them from memory. And the Pats for a long time were just better than us. They have beat us twice since they weren't one wind assisted and the other I thought the Bills deserved to lose. I think I just feel like in the last 15/20 years we have lost to the Jets despite being clearly better than them multiple times and it really winds me up haha.

Benford isn't top 5. But he is like very darn close. He is the 6th or 7th best boundary corner in the NFL. He is. But he is right on Benford. And the fact he is a 6th round pick. From Vilanova.

Yea that Broncos play is what he is. Not really a route runner but a guy who can find pockets of space to be available to his QB then very good after the catch. I still think Shavers is what he was last year. Their 6th WR but on the PS rather than the 53. Might be proved wrong but that is my guess.

When has Samuel shown ability downfield? I am not saying I'd cut him but downfield routes have never really been his thing. Wilkerson is new so who knows.... but Shavers was ahead of Hamler and Cain on the depth chart last year. The question is more what have they done since to jump above him?

I like Joe. But I disagree with him here. I don't think he is always right.

I don't agree with Joe on that. I don't know how he has come to that conclusion, genuinely I don't. Agree he plays three downs.... but his pass blocking is mediocre, honestly. It's a little better than Cook's I'll give him that... but he isn't James Connor or anything. He isn't Ty Johnson level either.

Oh he would be a reclamation project, no doubt. But there is enough stylistic similarity to make it worth a shot at the right price point if Cook is not back.

Kyren does pass protect but he isn't great at it. I suspect that would be the case for Cook except for the fact the Bills have Ty Johnson and Reggie Gilliam who are pretty good pass blocking backs and so they use them more in true passing sets than they do Cook. The Rams don't really have that kinda player so Williams doesn't come off the field.

Shows where they are at right now with injuries IMO. I think Spector had an uphill battle to make the 53 this year but I'm sure they wouldn't have wanted to lose him this early, even with an injury. They are so many guys down that to protect their starters and rotational guys and still have enough players to get through the game on Saturday is forcing some tough choices.

Trubisky is going to be the #2 Quarterback. He was much the better when we actually saw them play in a real NFL game in week 18 and he is tight with Josh. No. Some fans got really carried away with that.....

They are all reasonable calls, though I still think the Bills got all three of those decisions right. Jerry did have a good first year in Houston, yep, the Bills were just ready to move on and given his age I don't blame them. Worth remembering that Dodson did get benched and traded midway through the season by Seattle. I think a tad unfairly and he did rebound well in Miami but I think he basically played the same level as his final year in Buffalo. They knew what they had in Dodson he was just not a starter here but good enough to be one and about to be paid like one. Quinton Jefferson, yep. He had two years as a starter - one in Vegas and one for the Jets. Again, I think he was basically the same guy he was here but playing as a full time starter rather than a rotational depth guy.

The Bills gave up fourteen sacks in 2024 of which, per PFF, six were credited against the offensive line (3 Dion, 2 Spencer and 1 Edwards) the rest were either on Josh for holding the ball too long or were from blitzes. But you are right, Josh avoids sacks at a remarkable rate so it's worth looking at pressures too. The Bills starting five offensive linemen played 94 games combined in 2024 (regular and post season) and gave up 149 pressures - down from 182 in 2023 - broken down as: 45 Cybo, 30 Edwards, 27 McGovern, 25 Dion, 22 Spencer. To give some league wide context I have compared the numbers for the two lines I consider were clearly better than the Bills in 2024 - Eagles and Lions. There was then a gaggle of teams in that second tier with Buffalo - Buccs, Broncos, Vikings - where you can make an argument about who was better but I think Philly and Detroit were the two that were the class of the league. So Philly's starting five offensive linemen played 93 games combined in 2024 (regular and post season) and gave up 134 pressures. Detroit's starting five offensive linemen played 78 games combined in 2024 (regular and post season.... fewer cos they went 1 and done in the playoffs) and gave up 145 pressures. That context supports the assertion that the Bills line is pretty good. It's one of the best in the NFL. But it isn't all world and, frankly, in a salary cap era building that kind of line is next to impossible.

Yea Teller was the one big mistake they have made with one of their own guys. He was a victim of their lack of a clear plan on the OL before coach Kro returned. I think he was drafted for Juan Castillo's scheme, they didn't think he fitted Bobby Johnson's and he got lost in the shuffle but the truth is Beane was all over the map before Kromer on the type of linemen he was bringing in. He was trying to cobble together five guys with totally different styles built to play in totally different schemes. They have been sooooo much better and more consistent in their approach to OL talent since Kromer. Shows what a difference a quality position coach with a clear sense of what his scheme requires can make.

Yea I actually think if Cook does walk after this year Etienne as a FA reclamation project isn't the worst idea. I think he has the explosiveness, better top end speed and similar patience in terms of hitting the hole. On the downside, he doesn't have Cook's vision, has similar pass blocking limitations and the same tendency for concentration drops in the pass game. I also know, for a fact, Etienne was high on the Bills board in that 2021 draft. I believe, although don't know, that if both he and Groot were there they'd have taken Groot but in a world where Groot wasn't there and Etienne was he'd have been the pick. Taking James Cook who was like a less polished version of that skillset a year later in round 2 was not surprising.

Poona Ford. But he was a 1 year gun for hire here rather than one of "their guys" that they made a wrong call on.

It is exactly this. A lot of people are undervaluing Cook because they don't want to pay a running back. I don't really want to pay a running back either. I want them to find a way to get explosive passing game weapons in here and pay those guys. If we'd traded for DK this wouldn't even be a conversation, you let Cook walk. But if they are not gonna find those types of passing game weapons then letting Cook walk and replacing him with Davis just makes this offense significantly less explosive again and takes away a playmaker at a time when we should be trying to get more explosive and give Josh more playmakers.

That is about right.

ESPN is wrong.

Yea Williams is a churn it out, volume rusher. I confess my bias to be being less of a fan of that type of player. I'd just always value what Cook gives me higher.

I think Cook is better than Kyren. But $11m AAV could definitely help Beane persuade Cook's side that $12.5m AAV is more of the landing zone than $14m. Tom Pelissaro said he understands the parties are not far apart which makes me suspect that Cook and his agents have already come down a little from $15m. I think the conversations at this stage are likely in the spirit of where within that $10-15m range is the fair landing spot and then what level of guarantees are associated with it and how many years is it for.

Cook was excellent in 2023 too, just without the use in the redzone. Once they started giving him the ball down there instead of always defaulting to rushing Josh, Cook showed he could be really productive. His first year less so, but he sat behind Singletary a ton, waste of time that was. I just don't think Davis has the vision of Cook (in fairness not many do) and he doesn't have the explosion either. He can be a serviceable starter in the way Singletary was for a few years but it is in that lower end, baseline starter territory IMO. I'm with you that I'd much prefer to spend my dollars and have my explosive production at my premium positions and if that takes being a bit worse at running back to achieve that, who cares? To do that is likely going to take trading assets as well though because those explosive contributors at premium spots don't hit FA very often (if at all) and the Bills passed on the chance to swing those trades this past spring. I will say again if they don't extend Cook this summer and one of the pass catchers shows themselves to be that explosive playmaker this year then you absolutely let Cook walk and take the comp pick. But even in a world where Cook plays out his deal if you don't get explosive pass game plays from structure at a better clip than 2024 then I think you have to think very carefully before letting the explosive rusher you have in Cook leave the building.

Last year we really struggled to produce explosive pass plays in structure. And it wasn't for lack of calling them. We couldn't get deep separation and Josh and his receivers were not on the same page on some occasions as well. Josh will always make some explosives out of structure in scramble drill, broken play situations but if that is the ONLY way you are getting explosives from your offense I think that is a problem over the course of the season. Last season that was supplemented by a healthy dose of explosive run plays from Cook. You can feel better about the chances of getting in structure pass game explosives in 2025 than 2024, I'm not even telling you I disagree with you there... but until we see it then it's not proven. I want our explosives to come from the passing game. That is my preference. But one of those pass catchers needs to step up and prove they can make them at a reasonably regular clip of at least one every game or two before I'll believe it and, critically, before opposition teams will start playing to stop it which prevents them doing other things against us in the passing game - i.e. the Baltimore stack the middle philosophy or KC's overload blitzes. You can feel that. I don't. And I pray we never have to find out. He doesn't have the vision or the explosiveness.

No it isn't superstar to scrub. It's top 10 back to borderline starting talent. It's going back from having someone who can make difference making plays there to the Singletary / Moss era where your running back is "fine." And we simply don't have the explosiveness in the pass game right now that we had back then as a counterbalance.

AJ Brown. He is the third best receiver in football. It is Jefferson, Chase, Brown in that order. I think there is a gap between the top 2 and Brown but a bigger gap between Brown and whoever you have #4. Yea. I said it earlier. He turns 30 in September, that is wide receiver decline territory. Especially a guy like Terry for whom speed is a key facet of his game. I'm not sure it makes sense for any top team to give up assets commensurate with what the Commanders would want, plus the contract that Terry would want given the age. If he was a free agent and you were just gambling one asset (i.e. free agency dollars) I could see it as worth a shot. But Washington are going to want at least a 2nd round pick too. That is a lot of premium asset spend on a 30 year old speed receiver.