GunnerBill

If that talent works out as well as the Eagles guys, definitely!

Vic Fangio is a much better DC than Sean Desai. That is obvious. And Desai was definitely part of the regression between their very good D of 2022 and their bad D of 2023. So in that sense yes, of course Fangio made a difference. But the main thing that changed between 2022 and 2023 was their secondary collapsed they couldn't stop anyone in coverage. And the main thing that changed between 2023 and 2024 was they infused the pass D with talent. 3 new guys in the secondary and a coverage linebacker.

Purdy is better than Tua are creating off script I agree. But I don't think he is better from the pocket when his first read isn't there. I think he hesitates and ends up late on throws if he is going through progressions pretty consistently. If he moves in those situations he normally has better outcomes than when he stays in and tries to get to his 2nd or 3rd guy.

I'm young. I don't remember the 1890s 😂 EDIT: Of course production matters be all and end all.

Slay has been an elite corner the majority of his career. I think much more likely 2023 was just a down year for an ageing player than Fangio being responsible for the rebound. As for Baun - certainly possible. I'm sure Fangio was involved the in the evalution to fit him into a different scheme than he had played in. I am not saying Fangio had no impact. But Talent > Coaching always and forever in the NFL. Coaching matters. Talent matters more.

Yea you are way off base. The Chiefs defense did not suck under Sutton. Not at all. They were top 10 in points 4 times in 6 years and top 10 in yards twice. They were good in the playoffs too. There was basically no change under Spags until they threw multiple day 1 and 2 picks at the unit. That is when the D majorly improved. Spags history is he is very good with good talent. But when he had lesser talent he does not get that talent to over perform. As for Philly - yes they sucked in 2023. No question. And Fangio made a big difference. No question there either. But getting a rebound year from Darius Slay, adding Zach Baun and three secondary guys in Mitchell, DeJean and Gardner-Johnson was the biggest change. That talent infusion was the #1 reason for the improvement.

McConkey isn't Shakir. He can play some snaps outside. But he isn't going to be more than serviceable outside. Where he will shine will be in the slot. As for Coleman I said he was a big slot here well before the draft before any of the big name talking heads were saying it. You don't to persuade me on that score.

Hoecht I'd have made the same decision they did. They are signing him for 3 years. 6 games is a small chunk of that. But Ogunjobi I'd have called off personally.

They really didn't. They had a round 1 bust and Josh Palmer. And even when they were getting zero production from them they left Ladd in the slot. Because he is a slot receiver.

But it is also unavoidable. It is the market. On Purdy he reminds me VERY much of Tua. If the first read as designed in Kyle's offense is there he is dynamite. If you can take that away he hesitates and then you can force him into mistakes. He is a better athlete than Tua. But in terms of his from the pocket play they are very similar.

I was not in favour of drafting Coleman. I liked Ladd quite a bit more but would not have favoured a slot in round 1. I wanted the Bills to draft an outside receiver. That was what this offense needed IMO. Instead they decided BTJ wasn't worth a trade up then passed on Worthy and Legette to draft a big slot in Keon Coleman. If you were gonna take Coleman then you'd have been better taking Ladd IMO.

I think you would almost certainly be right averaged across that period. Indeed I suspect the Bills would come out slightly below average in terms of sheer volume of injuries. I can't be accused of not having context across the league. I do know who the starters are and who the backups are for the other 31. And teams just don't go on deep playoff runs with the cluster injuries the Bills had on defense in the 2023 post season. I'd have a real bet on that let alone a fake one. Teams don't make Superbowls when half their defense is backups. I would also have a fake bet that no other team over the past 8 or 9 years has lost its two highest paid defensive players to season ending injuries halfway through the year in back to back seasons. I haven't sat and gone through that properly but I have had a think and can't recall one. As I said earlier... being down one player isn't an excuse not to make the Superbowl, I'm not saying that. But it is still pretty rotten luck injury wise.

This is where I STRONGLY disagree. It isn't any knock on Spags or on Fangio who are both among the best defensive coordinators of their generation. But is talent #1. It is ALWAYS talent #1. In both cases the defensive improvement can be tracked specifically to the point the talent was significantly upgraded. In Fangio's case the two happened simultaneously. In Spags case though the evidence is pretty clear. He became DC in 2019 and their regular season defense actually got worse, and their post season defense stayed about the same, until Brett Veach committed to getting him better talent to work with. Then it took off.

Yea. McConkey is a slot receiver. He is darn good but he is a slot receiver. Forget the fact that the Bills already had one.... I just never love the value of taking those guys round 1. Unles they are true elite guys (and maybe Ladd is) the positional value is hard to overlook.

I think ultimately it was the case for the Bills defense in 2023 too. I know they nearly did but you just don't win playoff games without that many guys on D. And even had they got past KC in the Divisional Round it would have sunk them against Baltimore in the AFCCG IMO. That is the only year where I think injuries ultimately doomed the Bills. Have they had great luck otherwise? No. They had White and then Von suffer season enders in consecutive years - their two most talented and highest paid defensive stars - that is really unfortunate and I don't think you will find any other team in the NFL to whom that happened that way.... but losing ONE player is never legitmately the reason for a playoff defeat unless that one guy is your Quarterback. So White missing 2021, Von missing 2022, Benford going out early in 2024.... they are not excuses. They are unfortunate. But you have to pull on your big boy pants, next man up and find a way.

Nor did I but as @gonzo1105 has said he fits a lot of the criteria the Bills look for - a good RAS profile (despite the speed issue), size, long arms, young, had him in on a 30 visit etc.

It isn't that he can't improve. It's that in round 1 (I know Keon was technically #33 but you take the point) you generally want high floor, high ceiling. By the end of the round those guys, inevitably, have gone so your choice is generally high floor, lower ceiling or low floor, high ceiling. Essnetially do you prefer the safe pick of swing for the fences. The problem with Keon is he is relatively low floor and lower ceiling. The way he has struggled so far in the pros is exactly the way those of us who didn't love him as a prospect thought he'd struggle. And the ways he has had success - screens and slants near the line of scrimmage 'ball in hand' and yards after catch - are the ways we thought he was most likely to succeed. When I first said as far ago as February last year that I thought he was a big slot at the next level I got a ton of pushback. Matt Harmon said the exact same thing 3 weeks later. So far the evidence supports our opinion.

Came off arrogant and aloof and as though he was doing them a favour just being there. Now the Bills wasn't the most attractive destination at the time, that's fair. But he also wasn't the hottest coordinator on the block after leaving Cleveland after one season. Interview was described as very short and with mutual loathing.

No. But it also is my take that they wouldn't have had the same post season success without the investments they made on that side of the ball. The bigger differntial was talent.

The first two playoff losses - Chargers and Titans was on him. He just wasn't up to it. But he has played pretty well since. I know he had a bad INT and a bad fumble vs us in January but he was also the reason they had a chance to win at the end. I don't put the KC game the previous year on him either. That was on the OC who called an atrocious game. He is over 70% passing in 3 of his last 4 playoff games.

Not while Pegula is here. They interviewed him in 2015 and flat out HATED him.

I think the Lamar narrative is kinda wrong though. I think there is a lot more to it in Baltimore too.

No teams don't luck into the Superbowl. But only one of the top 10 DVOA teams on your list over the period actually won the Superbowl (if I counted right). And I think that does reflect that isn't as straightforward as the best performing regular season teams by the advanced analytics go on and win Superbowls. Actually the old fashioned ranking system.... the team with the #1 seed and most wins have won more Superbowls over that period. I see Baltimore and Buffalo as very similar. More dominant regular season teams than KC in many ways. But don't find the ways to get it done in the post season.

I do think it is part luck. It is part Kansas City. But it is also part the playoffs and ultimately winning the Superbowl is about elite difference makers. I have held that view since long before the Bills were contenders. You normally need at least 4 elite guys to win a Superbowl. The Bills have never had more than 2 on the field together in the playoffs since that first AFCCG (when they had Josh, Diggs and Tre). And I think in those big moments it shows up. And then obviously there is one major coaching failure in there too in 2021. It's a combination of all that. EDIT: my general view is that the regular season is about how many weaknesses you have. The teams with fewest make the post season. Then the post season is about your strenghts much more.

Yea the Chiefs lost Mathieu in the game too didn't they? They were definitely hurting on the back end.