GunnerBill

I'm not sure Payton's record supports the theory that his post season success was anything more than lightening in a bottle. And given the unlikeliness of that striking twice I'd go McDermott.

Washington would essentially be their nickel/dime except in packages where Hamilton did that role when Washington would play safety. Essentially his versatility helps them use Hamilton more as a chess piece without having to tip their hand as to what defense they are in. His loss isn't terminal, but it isn't nothing.

Yea I don't think it is close to 100% that he'd have won us a Superbowl.

Nobody has lost more games in the playoffs to inferior teams despite a significant Quarterback advantage than Sean Payton though. And I like Payton. He is one of the best offensive minds of his generation and an interesting, demanding, aggressive, win at all costs Head Coach. But he had Drew Brees and lost playoff games to Rex Grossman, Matt Hasselbeck, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins - even if you exlcude the horrible non-call vs the Rams. I reject the notion it would have been a guarantee of a Superbowl with him. I think it is equally possible we'd have lost at least one wildcard game to an inferior team in that time.

That would feel pretty like last year. Should be 6-1 or at worst 5-2 at the BYE and then a heavy round thanksgiving period before a softer ending. I think we might see a bit more of the meat up front personally.

Oh I agree. I'm just saying I would prefer they weren't.

Toooootallly agree. Especially for those of us for whom every prime time game means using some leave from work or at least negotiating a late start the next day. I'd be fine with 2 maybe 3 a year.... 5 or 6 every season the novelty has gone for me tbh.

I don't think last season's team was Superbowl calibre personally. I already think the 2025 roster looks stronger on paper than the 2024 one. The Bills overachieved by a win or two last year in the regular season and probably by one round in the playoffs. Sometimes you win it the year you shouldn't on paper... that does happen... so not dismissing it as a chance but the Bills overachieved in 2024. I do think 2020-2023 were four years of Superbowl calibre rosters. Especially 2021 and 2022. Those two years are the ones that hurt the most.

I've already reduced them to "every other Christmas" so that 1 year in two is just me, the other half and friends... but this year is the family's turn....

Agree. I don't care about any other games. I did not want the Christmas day game. I already get heat from the various family factions about how much of my time they get at Christmas.

9

I think he will..... UNLESS the Saints have the first pick. If the Saints have the #1 pick (and Arch is considered the consensus #1 selection after the season) he is coming out IMO.

I disagree that he can't win a Championship. I think he can. Does the defense need to play better in playoff losses? Sure. But as others have pointed out almost always when a team loses in the playoffs they gave up more than you'd want. The last two years it hasn't stopped them having a chance to win and I don't think either year McDermott has been close to the reason we lost the game. Not even in the top 5 reasons. Either year. As for my line... missing the playoffs with a healthy Josh Allen. Losing a home wildcard game to a team we are clearly better than. Or another 13 second style blunder that is directly on coaching. They are my firing offences. There is a point at which I get the you try something different. But I reject in advance that if the something different ends up with a Championship that proves McDermott was the problem. The game is just way more random than that.

I think the guarantee will be less than that. I think somewhere around $21/22m.

I agree it isn't different to what others do. But I disagree that 3 for $45m is 3 for $45m. That's only true if the contract is fully guaranteed. And Cook's won't be. There are ways to give him and his agent the win in terms of a headline number while making that contract a team friendly one. It's not unique it is just good cap management.

Yea. Players think it matters more than it does.

Agree under Taylor they are like 1 and something in September.

Yes but you make year 3 a largely unguaranteed big number... like $19m plus that he is never going to play on. If he is still a stud at that point you extend him.and lower that number. If he is washed you cut him. I had a model worked out the other day where you do a 3yr $45m extension and his salary cap numbers are basically: 25 - 5m 26 - 9m 27 - 13.5m Then 28 was a big number but it isn't real money. I did have one void year but not a ton in it. Like $4m. I think I had him cuttable for like $7m in dead cap after the 2027 season. If I get time this weekend I'll dig my workings out and post it. I thought it had wins for him and his agent (let them claim they got the number they wanted) and wins for the Bills.

Nope. You normally need two mini reloads during a 12-15 year run with a HOF guy. Last year was one of ours and we made the title game. The next 3 or 4 seasons the window is wide open.

Me too.

That is funnier than you realise haha.

I don't think this is true. We had a core - White, Hyde, Poyer, Milano (all played together for SEVEN seasons). Taron joined them a year later and played that group SIX seasons. Tremaine joined the same year but left a year before the three vet DBs and played with that group FIVE seasons. Ed Oliver joined year later and played with that core for FOUR seasons. That was seven core guys who were brought in during the first 3 years of this regime. Over the last couple of years that they lost four of those core guys. And this is the first attempt since at really reloading the defense. What it is accurate to say is they have had multiple versions of the Dline around Oliver in that time. Largely that has been mid tier FAs... and I agree they have not always spent that money well. They have made two big investments there - Groot in round 1 who has been good but not great; and Von as a FA which for injury reasons ultimately failed. But this is the first attempt to actually remake the defense since those guys brought in through the first three years of the regime. We are entering year nine. It is reasonable at this point that you need to do that. Tbh the Bills D kinda bucked the trend in terms of staying together and being productive for five seasons. That isn't me saying they have done enough at receiver. I am pretty vocal about where I think they are still lacking and their under prioritisation of the position over the past 3 or 4 offseasons. I wanted Christian Watson. I wanted to trade up for Jordan Addison. I wanted to trade up for BTJ. But I think the defense was talent deficient last year and it was right to try and kick start McDermott era defense 2.0 this offseason. Would just have been nice if they'd done more than baseline FA acquisitions at receiver at the same time.

Does your gf have nudes?

I watched the presser. He didn't.

Yep. I think that is the ball park. And with the 3rd year of the extension being a pretty comfortable out for the Bills. Maybe around $5-6m dead cap ideally... but definitely no more than $8m. So it might be $15m AAV as the shiny number for the agent. $12.5m AAV as the number for cap purposes and then about $11.75m AAV if the final year of that extension is one he isn't really likely to play on because it has a big cap # but most of that is non-guaranteed base salary (you'd either extend and lower the hit if he is still good or cut bait if he isn't..). Davis can't easily replace James Cook anywhere. Also worth saying for all the Davis lovers.... he is less than two months younger than James Cook. So anyone thinking it's a young guy with more development..... not sure that's the case. He is an OLD 2nd year player. Basically it is just a choice to accept getting worse in order to get cheaper. Normally at running back I'm fine with that. But when the running back is clearly the most dynamic skill position player on the offense I am less gung ho.