GunnerBill

Coffee actually. Very nice too.

Okay here is where I am at in terms of piecing things together..... I think we can narrow the Bills pick at #30 (or shortly thereafter with a small trade back) down to: Corner: Trey Amos, Maxwell Hariston, Shavon Revel Edge: Nic Scourton, Shermar Stewart DTackle: Tyleik Williams Those guys have all be in on 30 visits and with the exception of Kincaid (who I remain convinced was a backup plan at the last minute when Addison went) this regime has always used their first round pick on a guy they have had in for a 30 visit. Add to that none of Harmon, Nolen and Grant have been in and I think DTackle is not their plan at #30. I added Williams to this list because I think if they did shuffle back into the top of the 2nd, say half a dozen picks, then he could be in play there. I think Shermar Stewart will be gone. I think Revel is an injury risk the type of which they have tended to avoid in the first round so really I think Amos, Hariston and Scourton are the three most likely Bills selections at #30. It will be one of those three guys IMO. EDIT: one caveat - by my count there are 6 top 30 visits unaccounted for. Is it possible the Bille have had Harmon, Nolen and Grant all in and kept it quiet? Possible, but tough in this media age. But a reminder in 2022 the news Elam had been in only came out in the final 48 hours pre-draft.

No we didn't. We traded back out of the first round because when it came to the Bills at 30 they didn't think anything there was worth spending a 1st on. You are talking about a year out devaluing a future asset for two day 2 picks in this draft. Imagine Josh gets hurt week 4 and then 1st rounder next year ends up a top 10 pick? Devaluing a 1st to a 2nd when it is time to use that 1st is one thing. Doing it ahead of time to cash your chips on a couple of day two picks? No NFL GM is ever doing that.

Yes. He won't be though. But he is going 15-26 rather than top 10.

Neither was good last year. I'd say Baltimore Tre was probably better than Douglas but LA Tre was worse. Tre is one of my favourite ever Bills. I hope being back in familiar surroundings can revive him. It can happen. Darius Slay just had a roll back the years season after looking cooked in 2023. If the Bills are saying "we are fine at corner, we have Tre" then I don't like it. Otherwise I class it as a shot worth taking.

Giving up a 1st for an extra day 2 pick this year is nonsensical. You never trade a 1st for anything other than a special player. Whether that is a vet you trade it away for OR a prospect you think is special. Trading it just for more day 2 ammo is a crazy idea.

He is. Aaron Rodgers' biggest problem has always been Aaron Rodgers.

Partly because they are one of the least concerned with positional value. In the last 5 or 6 drafts they have spent firsts on safety, center, tight end and off ball linebacker.

Yea Collins window opens around the Bills first 2nd rounder and lasts to mid 3rd IMO.

I don't think the consensus is miles out. Beane isn't either. He drafts very few busts. That isn't the issue. Its stars that are lacking from our drafting and maybe that needs a bit less consensus thinking (not saying it does just asking the question)?

But he did that last year and still blew the evaluation. That's my point. I think questionable talent evaluation is the bigger issue than strategy.

We know the Chiefs had him as their next guy after McDuffie. The GM admitted thst to the Athletic.

I agree his first round picks always feel need driven. But the bigger issue remains evaluation IMO.

It's almost always a mix of the two. They definitely misevaluated him. 100%. But often when you need X position you end up comvincing yourself that the guys who might be options at the spot are better than they are. So they misevaluated him in the first place and then he ends up with another grade boost because he played a spot they had a huge hole. Beane's line was he was the last first round grade. I'm sure that is true. How he got thar grade is the interesting bit.

Honestly, it's probably Ezeiruaku at #30. It's not that I don't think he is a decent player but to me it would be a repeat of last year, a low ceiling use of our first selection.

I still love Scourton. I don't think edge is still in play at #30 though sadly.

Trust me Fergy's board is bigger than that. He always has the biggest boards. Huge.

I saw it earlier. Wouldn't mind that. Starks is a top 10 guy in this class for me. Don't love Farmer but Revel and Swinson at those spots are great value. Like Smith late and Bartholomew is one of @gonzo1105's sleeper guys and I trust his judgment! Would prefer a different receiver. Lane to me is a slot guy

It is a good point on age. He is just (in March) turned 23 at least Amos. Kincaid turned 24 during his rookie season. That hasn't typically been their MO. Tremaine Edmunds is still only 15.

I don't think they have had Grant in for a visit have they? And interestingly we haven't seen any of the most likely round 1 DTs in. The guys they have had in are Norman-Lott, Williams, Sanders, Walker, Robinson.... more day 2 and 3 guys. That doesn't have to mean anything. They met Grant and Nolen at the Combine (as well as Farmer and Collins). But as I said earlier Kincaid apart this regime has had every first round pick it has made in for a top 30 visit (Rousseau's being virtual because of covid). They are one of the more consistent teams in that regard. They have had all those expected late first / early 2nd corners in - Amos, Hariston, Revel, Morrison. It's tea leaves reading but I think the signals are pointing very much to corner at 30.

I can't comment on Levy as a coach. Before my time.

In fairness I think we hit on by far the most likely pick at #30 the first time around and as a result he was barred from selection in version 2.0

Year Grier surviving this time around is bad news for McDaniel IMO. It woulda been pretty easy to blame the GM for some of their roster issues, fire him and let McDaniel help choose a new GM. After all he is well above .500 as Head Coach (28-23 in the regular season) and his two playoff losses have come to the two best AFC teams of this era - KC and Buffalo. The fact he held onto Grier a year screams "I want to clean house but it is too early to can McDaniel so I'll wait a year."

I didn't know that story, but I respect McDaniel a ton for that. Kinda had a similar journey in soccer in that I played a pretty low level of semi-pro soccer when I was still living up north and when I moved to London and went to summer try outs for my local semi-pro club which was a couple of levels higher up the pyramid I made it from like 100 guys through 3 rounds of cuts and when they did the cut to the final 20 man squad to start the season the manager pulled me and said "to be honest ability wise I'd have cut you two rounds ago but you caught my eye for how you communicate and the quality of the information you pass on to other players, so I am going to sign you but I don't really want you to play, I want you to coach and be there as a break glass in case of emergency player." I was 24 and at the time the youngest coach in the top 4 tiers of the non-league game.

He didn't run because he would be bottom 10 percentile in terms of speed for outside corners in the NFL. I even wonder if a team drafts him then moves him to safety.