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mjt328

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Everything posted by mjt328

  1. I get so tired of hearing this. There is nothing wrong with being a "run first" team. There is nothing wrong with being a "run heavy" team. Both of these techniques can win in today's NFL, and have proven they can win recently. One of the most recent examples being the 2015 Carolina Panthers, who went 15-1 in the regular season and went to the Super Bowl. Where the Bills run into trouble, is they need to be efficient at passing when the run game is ineffective. When teams load 8-9 in the box, we need to be able to take advantage in the passing game. When we are behind by 2 or more scores and need to move the ball quickly, we need to do it through the air in big chunks. When we have a 2 minute drill and need a quick drive, it has to be mostly passing.
  2. The list is Pretty good list. I would make a few adjustments. PROBABLE: (5 Teams) Buffalo, New York Jets and San Francisco are the only ones I consider absolutely certain. Jacksonville is almost a certainty. This is Bortles last chance. Arizona is highly likely. Palmer will be 38 and is looking like crap. POSSIBLE: (7 Teams) Cleveland likes Kizer, but I don't see them passing on a Top 5 QB if he is staring them in the face. New Orleans is a definite possibility. Brees will be 39 and a free agent. Pittsburgh is a wild card nobody has mentioned. But Roethlisberger has been talking retirement for 2-3 seasons now. Denver is getting decent production from Siemien right now, but I don't expect that to continue. And Lynch has been a bust so far. San Diego and the New York Giants will keep Rivers/Manning for at least another season. But they will be 36 and 37, so both teams may be looking to the future. Washington has been unwilling to give Cousins a contract. Will they finally cave, or finally let him walk? UNLIKELY: (5 Teams) St. Louis invested too much in Goff to give up after 2 seasons, regardless of how he plays. Same with Philadelphia and Wentz. Minnesota likes Bradford, and still has Bridgewater as a fall-back option. They are slightly possible, but I think unlikely. Cincinnati isn't going to move on from Dalton. He's been solid for too long. Miami isn't moving on unless Tannehill has a serious setback with his injury. Same situation as Dalton. NO WAY: (15 Teams) Baltimore isn't moving on from Flacco. He's been a solid QB and his contract is too expensive to dump. Indianapolis isn't moving on from Luck. See Baltimore/Flacco. Houston, Kansas City and Chicago just drafted their QBs of the future. New England either keeps Garoppolo or Brady plays another year. Possibly both. Tennessee, Oakland, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Seattle all have relatively young franchise QBs.
  3. I said this in another thread.. The coaching staff is not going to adapt the offense to Tyrod Taylor. They have no long-term investment in him, and probably would have moved on already if there were better options available. The offense you see is the offense they are going to run. Yes, they are technically "trying" to win in 2017. This is not an official tank job. But as you can see by the Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby trades, they aren't going to back off the long-term plan to get a couple extra wins this year. Their plan is for 2018-2019 and beyond.
  4. After yesterday, I'm convinced Tyrod Taylor is on borrowed time with this coaching staff. It's over. It's clear Taylor doesn't fit the pocket-passer/quick release mold in this offense. It's been clear since training camp and the preseason, with the only exception being a half-decent performance against probably the worst team in the NFL. Taylor was already a fringe starter in this league, with below-average field vision and limited passing skills. Now he's in a system that doesn't fit his strengths. This coaching staff is not going to adjust for Taylor. They know what worked last year with him, and they still aren't budging. This is the system they want to run. This is the system they are going to build talent around. Taylor has been granted the chance to make it work, mostly because there weren't any other (decent) options available on the QB market. Dennison has handed him the playbook, and basically said "Sink or Swim." With that said, don't expect an immediate change at quarterback. Nathan Peterman was a 5th Round Pick from Pitt. He's not ready. The Bills are still trying to win in 2017, even if (realistically) they realize this season doesn't have much hope. They aren't purposely tanking for a top pick. And if Sean McDermott benches Taylor after Week 2, forcing an unprepared rookie into the lineup, he's going to upset A LOT of veterans. Not a smart move by a rookie coach. McDermott is going to let the season play out. He's going to let Taylor and the offense crash and burn on their own. That way, there won't be a question when he's out in the offseason.
  5. This is an interesting take, and it really makes me think of the Pittsburgh Steelers model. The Rooney's are famous for their reluctance to change head coaches. Amazingly, they have only three coaches over the last 48 years. Chuck Knoll, Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin. In that span, they also have a whopping 29 playoff appearances, 16 conference championship appearances, 8 Super Bowl appearances and 6 Super Bowl victories. Continuity matters in Pittsburgh. Knoll, Cowher and Tomlin have the same style of coaching. Even when Cowher retired and they hired Tomlin (from the Vikings, not an internal promotion), the transition was very smooth. He didn't make any drastic changes. The Steelers have been running the same 3-4 defense for over 35 years. Their drafting style is always the same (heavy on the Front 7, offensive line and at wide receiver).
  6. Tyrod just doesn't scan and process the field fast enough. I'm convinced he can only go through 1-2 progressions before he is sacked or looks to run. For the last 2 seasons, we saw Greg Roman/Anthony Lynn put Tyrod in mostly shotgun with lots of designed roll-outs, where he was only asked to read half of the field. As a result, we got lots of quick sideline passes, dump-offs to the running back and sideline deep shots. He very rarely used the middle of the field, to the point Charles Clay seemed non-existent. Many Bills fans assumed this was due to Tyrod's height or inability to see over the line. I'm starting to think this was wrong. This year, Rick Dennison has Tyrod under center. His immediate field of vision is now the middle of the field. His first reads are going to be the tight end and dump offs to the running back. Suddenly, the outside receivers aren't being thrown to. There are no more sideline passes. There are no more deep shots on the outside. Suddenly, everything is over the middle and our receivers are the ones being ignored. Don't be surprised if Tyrod isn't our starter after the bye week. The guy has lots of positive qualities as a starting QB, but it's becoming apparent that he's reached his ceiling. Games like yesterday at Carolina happen way too often with him. If teams are successful in bottling up our running game, the offense is totally incapable of moving the ball. I'm not optimistic that Peterman will actually do anything for us, but it may be time to start getting our offensive players used to a traditional pocket passer, to make for a smoother transition with a rookie next year.
  7. Too much is being made of the last play. Zay Jones stumbled a little bit, and wasn't very smooth transitioning to the ball. It was a very tough catch, but it was catchable. At the same time, Tyrod's pass was a little bit high and a little bit behind the receiver. However, as I said, it was catchable and was thrown between three Carolina defenders. A better throw would have helped. But so would better concentration and route running by the receiver. The real problem was that it took 58 minutes to get anywhere close to the end zone, and that we ended the day with 3 points (when only 10 would have won us the game).
  8. Let's not overreact. It's one game. The Patriots were getting decent production from Danny Amendola in the slot, until he left with a head injury. It was also the first game together for Tom Brady and Brandin Cooks. And very few teams have a player like Eric Berry, who can shut down Rob Gronkowski consistently. It would be fantastic if Week 1 was the sign of Brady's decline. But I'm skeptical. Last week was a perfect storm of events that contributed to the Pats offense struggling. This week they get the Saints.
  9. You are right. Teams normally don't comment. But in the case of Kaepernick, they keep making excuses about his work ethic and on-field play (Let's be honest. The guy isn't very good, but he's still better than a good chunk of the backups currently employed). They seem willing to comment, but won't give more honest reasons why. When the owners "hide" their true thoughts, it gives credence to the idea that something is wrong with blackballing players for their actions and behavior.
  10. The statistical difference is not huge. But it is still there. Especially if you look at just the last 2-3 seasons. Colin Kaepernick started his career hot, but his play has steadily deteriorated since the 2013 Super Bowl season. Defenses figured out how to stop him, and he's never adjusted his game enough to get past that hurdle. After three straight poor performances, there is little hope the guy will ever turn things around. Right now, Tyrod Taylor is more accurate, more elusive, more accurate and has less turnovers. It's possible he eventually sees a big drop-off like Kaepernick, but it's also possible he gets better. Kaepernick was a good QB that became bad. Taylor is an average QB that still has time to entrench himself. With that said, I don't understand why NFL owners just can't ADMIT their stance on Kaepernick. Why are they letting ESPN and other media outlets bully them into hiding their true thoughts? As an employer, they have every right NOT TO HIRE someone. End of story. It's not racist. It's not prejudiced. Kaepernick had every constitutional right to protest. But the owners have the right to fire him/refuse to hire him. A large percentage of fans believe Kaepernick's actions were disrespectful to this country, and a major distraction from the sport. Many players have admitted these demonstrations can be divisive among their team. If Hall of Fame talents like Terrell Owens were eventually blackballed from the league because of their behavior (and nobody complains about that), it's certainly fine for NFL teams to decide they don't want the clown show that comes with signing Kaepernick. Very well said. Rioting, blocking highways and kneeling at football games does nothing to fix these problems. In most cases, it only raises tension and increases anger - instead of bringing support to the cause.
  11. I'm glad the Bills won. But it WAS just the Jets. Top to bottom, New York has one of the worst rosters in the NFL. In my opinion, only the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns could be in the conversation for having less talent. Even the people predicting a 5-11 or worse season figured we should be able to beat the Jets at home. Nobody is going to show the Bills respect until they start winning games in bunches, and start playing consistently strong every week.
  12. Like I said in another thread, I don't like this matchup for the Bills. I agree that Carolina is a very flawed team. I'm just not sure our team is strong enough in the areas necessary to take advantage of where they are weak. This is the game our linebackers have to step up big. Carolina's biggest strengths are in Cam Newton's running ability (maybe the injury will limit this), Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield. All of these require our LBs to be on top of their game. This is the game our wide receivers have to make plays. Carolina can stuff the run. They can rush the passer and their linebackers are fantastic. The weakness is on the outside at cornerback. When they see last week's film, I have a feeling they will shut down the short stuff. Can Tyrod Taylor work the WRs this week?
  13. In my opinion, this is not a very good matchup for the Bills. The Panthers offensive strengths have the potential to exploit the Bills biggest weak points. Specifically, Cam Newton's running ability, Greg Olsen matched up against our linebackers in coverage and Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield. To stop these guys, you need some speed and athleticism at LB (and we really don't). As a positive, Sean McDermott faced Newton every day in practice. If anyone has a strategy to shut him down, our coaching staff should have it on Sunday. On the other side of the ball, we don't really match up well either. Last year, the Panthers defense was pretty good at stopping the run (Top 10 in YPA). So handing the ball to Shady 20+ times may not be enough to move the ball consistently. The Panther pass defense was bottom half in most categories, but they were #2 in sacks. This was mostly due to them starting two rookies on the outside. If the Jets game was about attacking the linebackers in coverage, this game should be about attacking the corners. With our group of wide receivers, I'm not entirely confident we can do that effectively. It's fair to question whether the Panthers are closer to the 2015 team (15-1, NFC Champions) or the 2016 team (6-10, Last Place). Their record since hiring Ron Rivera and drafting Cam Newton has been constantly up-and-down. They are one of the hardest franchises in the NFL to predict. To win this game, I think the Bills need to have success in areas they usually struggle at. They need to get great coverage from their linebackers. They need to stay disciplined on the defensive line. They need to keep the pocket clean and get yards passing the ball to their receivers.
  14. It's not just about the throw being high. It's also about the defender in front of Charles Clay, ready to take his head off. Clay missed that pass, because he was bracing for a big hit. Tyrod Taylor had a pretty good day, but I believe that interception was his fault.
  15. This is the problem with modern reporting in general (and not just in the sports world). These guys have less interest in finding out facts, and more interest in finding ammunition to support the article they were already planning to write. Chris Brown and John Murphy are basically employed by the team. You should already know what to expect when you listen to Murphy's show or read Brown's articles. There may be some interesting observations, but not a lot of critical pessimism. Jerry Sullivan's agenda is the opposite. He's made a name by attacking and criticizing everything Buffalo Bills. Even if the Bills turn it around and start winning, this will not change (ask anyone who read his stuff before the playoff drought). If the Bills had done everything perfect Sunday and won 70-0, he would have still written a negative article about how we played a weak opponent. Sullivan apparently went into yesterday's game with plans on ripping the Bills for lack of talent at wide receiver. Based on everything he's put out publicly since kickoff Sunday, it's pretty clear that was his goal. He expected the passing game to struggle badly. So when it didn't, he decided to criticize the lack of receiver targets. I have no problem with Sullivan asking the question about "balance." But both McDermott and Taylor gave the same answer -- an answer that made lots of sense -- and he still decided to pinpoint the lack of receiver targets in his article. It was ridiculous. It's fair to question the strength of the Jets as an opponent, or point out the places Buffalo struggled on Sunday. But I prefer reporters like Joe Buscaglia, who seems to just tell fans what he sees and observes, instead of starting with an agenda.
  16. Smart teams (like New England) game plan against the weaknesses of the opponent. Sounds like the Bills were doing exactly that yesterday.
  17. Why can't we just accept Tyrod Taylor for what he is. Fans are so concerned about being "right", they are completely blind to anything he does that runs contrary to their opinion. Taylor isn't going to put the team on his back and carry us to the playoffs. He's limited and has lots of flaws as a passer. But he's also 100X better than anything we ever saw from JP Losman, Trent Edwards, EJ Manuel, etc., etc.
  18. With this new regime "cutting the fat", Marcel Dareus will have the bullseye on him all season. Just like Stephon Gilmore had in 2016 during his contract year. Let's be honest. At the $100 million we are paying Dareus (not to mention all the off-field headaches), fans are expecting more than a guy that occupies blockers and helps stuff the run. They are expecting dominance. They are expecting a guy that plays like a Top 5 DT in this league. They are expecting him to look like a Pro-Bowler. And I think those expectations are reasonable. We saw that Dareus 3-4 years ago, before he got the big contract and Rex Ryan came to town. Since that point, he's been a solid player. But nothing special. (Just like Gilmore). At this point in his career, he's still the second best defensive tackle on the Bills - even with 34 year old Kyle Williams contemplating retirement.
  19. I guess they were telling him not to scramble. You are right. I was hoping we wouldn't see him under center, and get more movement. This is going to be a long season.
  20. I've been crossing my fingers all preseason, hoping this would be the case. We should know for sure on Sunday. The offense we saw during August does not fit Tyrod Taylor's strengths. If this article rings true, the Bills were forcing Taylor to work on his areas of weakness during the preseason. They were forcing him to work under center, because he struggles there. They were forcing him to stay in the pocket, because they didn't want him scrambling.
  21. The Pats defensive line was invisible last night. Everyone forgot Alan Branch existed.
  22. I know the Bills haven't earned respect around the NFL, but that comment was stupid and made no sense. Nothing more than a pointless shot at a team that wasn't even playing. The Patriots have a whopping three players from the Bills. Stephon Gilmore, Mike Gillislee and Chris Hogan. On a roster of 53 players, is it really that rare to have three former players from another team? And it's not like these guys are exactly setting the NFL on fire. Gillislee and Hogan were backups when they were actually in Buffalo. And they would both STILL be backups if they were here today. Gillislee is better than LeSean McCoy? OK Collinsworth... whatever you say... Last night, Hogan had a whopping 1 catch for 5 yards, despite Julian Edelman gone for the year and Danny Amendola knocked out with a concussion. His career best season is 38 catches, 680 yards and 4 touchdowns. Gillislee had a nice fantasy line thanks to getting all the Patriots goal line carries, but he only averaged 3.0 ypa in actual real football play. And New England fans found out exactly why the Bills determined Gilmore wasn't quite worth such a huge contract. He's a good player, but gets burned way too much to be counted on as a shut-down corner.
  23. An NFL team turns over approximately every 4 years. Within that time period, 99% of the roster will either have been drafted, signed as a free agent or re-signed/extended. The only exceptions are those superstars who sign 5+ year contracts (which are very few and far between). So even if Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott completely fail, it's not like our team will be set back for a complete decade. A new regime would be able to come in here and flip everything around sometime within that 4 year period. My biggest concern is that Beane/McDermott are making themselves WAY too dependent on killing the 2018 draft. Next year's rookie class is going to completely set the foundation of what they are building. I doubt Pegula will give them more than 3 seasons without serious progress. My belief is that a GM needs to land at least 3-4 solid starters per draft to put a team on the right track. But when you trade away a solid starter for a pick, you absolutely MUST land a solid starter with that selection. So at this point, they will need to hit on 5-6 of their draft choices in 2018. That is quite a tall order.
  24. The Jets have one of the worst NFL rosters I've seen in a long time. So walking away with a win wouldn't be that impressive to me, regardless of the score. In fact, I think it will take 4-5 games (at the minimum) before we can start making real assumptions about the 2017 Bills. At that point, we should start getting an idea what they are good at, what they are bad at, and what is going to be inconsistent. With that said, there are a few things that could give me some early season hope. First would be Rick Dennison's offensive structure and how Tyrod Taylor runs it. Our first looks in the preseason saw Dennison forcing Taylor into being an under-center/pocket passer, which is a recipe for disaster. He's too short, doesn't make quick decisions and plays his worst when kept between the tackles. If we try doing this all season, I don't think it will be long before fans start screaming for Nate Peterman. If Dennison adjusts to something more what Anthony Lynn ran, then I'll be optimistic we can score some points this season. Let's see how the running game operates. I'm a little concerned about the switch to zone blocking. I'm a little concerned about Cordy Glenn's foot. I'm a little concerned about the right side of the line not getting upgraded. I'm a little concerned how the lack of speed at receiver will draw safeties closer to the line of scrimmage. I'm a little concerned about the lack of depth behind Shady. I'm a little concerned that Taylor won't be contributing as much to the ground game. Put it all together, I'm skeptical this group is going to repeat as the NFL's top rushing unit. I want to see how the linebackers move. How do they handle covering tight ends and running backs? How do they tackle from sideline to sideline? I'm excited about our defensive line getting back to its strength. But I think linebackers are the glaring weakness of our defense, and the main reason we won't return to being a Top 10 unit. I want to see how the new secondary comes together. We are looking at all new faces, so I really don't know what to expect here.
  25. Fans and the media are confused, because they believe in only two philosophies: The team is either "built to win now" or they are "tanking for the future." Signing/extending veterans fits the first mold. Trading older players for draft picks fits the latter. Trading young talent fits neither. I think Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott are simply overhauling the team (whether young or old) into something that fits into their vision. This isn't just about stockpiling draft picks. This isn't about competing for the Number #1 pick. They are trying to win in 2017, but they also aren't afraid to trade away players that don't fit into the roster they are building. Sammy Watkins was traded because of salary. I am 90% convinced of this. They knew that either Watkins has another disappointing season and they let him walk, or he has a fantastic season and wants more money than they were willing to pay. When they first declined his 5th Year Option, I thought the front office was making Sammy prove himself for the money. But now I believe the front office had already decided he had no future in Buffalo. Ronald Darby is undersized and better in man coverage. He didn't fit the defense. Reggie Ragland is a 3-4 middle linebacker with limited skills. He didn't fit the defense. Jonathan Williams didn't help on special teams like they want from backups. It's that simple. And only time will tell if Beane/McDermott actually know what they are doing.
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