Mango

Honestly, at the time, much happier. Now, I would rather have Allen. Rosen might be able to resurrect something that resembles a career. Allen > Rosen seems to be the right decision.

If I am the NFLPA I answer back with: 1. Larger % of TV money. 2. Stop testing for pot. 3. An extra bye. 4. Less contact in camp, pre season, season etc. If I am the owners, I concede all of those things, but mandate more time in the facility in the offseason. Product will be better, so the fans are happy. NFL makes more money. Players make more money. We are all good.

Should be switched closer to Marry, F-*****, Kill. Your options seems all win-win. You can only do one of each Re-sign, Cut, Trade away (Realistically) for a 3rd or higher. Or something like that. You only get one of each for the season and the rest stay on the roster. Lawson, Lee Smith, Singletary. Singletary because I think while good, he’s not great nor has the skill set to carry the kid long term. If we could flip his pick even for a high 3rd or low 2nd I’d take it in this scenario. Edit: Might be worth it to narrow it to 22 starters for this and make it more interesting. Let’s be honest, most of ya are cutting Lee Smith.

I HATE THIS PART of the last CBA. I understand keeping contact to a minimum, especially given the size, speed, and strength of these guys in the NFL. I understand the body needs to heal after a very grueling season. But there’s no reason why these guys can’t or shouldn’t be with their teams SC coaches and coordinators working on 7v7, sleds, weights, mechanics, technique, getting stretched out etc. starting March or April 1, 6 days per week. Maybe they get a week off here and there in between.

I know, right? Everybody has some sort of version of him saying "so are we going to do this?". So I imagine he was pretty explicit in his requests up front.

I don't really get why this is still going on in the news. It just seems like a non-story to me. Pro-athlete regularly cheats on wife with random women.... Big story! I am not condoning it. By no means am I going to "yuck his yum". Unless his wife knew about it, and they were in an open marriage, then he is a dirt bag husband. But I think we were all leaning towards Baker being a POS anyways. Honestly I am almost relieved that we don't have another story of a professional athlete raping and assaulting women.

I am guessing he meant his fumbles, many of which we dodged a bullet on.

I would actually read this as a similar situation to Marrone/Bradley. They brought in their replacement if need be.

We have so much cap space, there is no real rush to create any more. Without asking "Who specifically is the replacement? And do you think their production will be worth their contract + dead space?" We shouldn't just cut people because they are over paid and we don't like it. We have to upgrade the position without just broadly stating "FrEe AgEnCy aNd ThE DrAft".

But I think there is a difference between him and his peers. I think what @C.Biscuit97 is eluding to, is that it seems to be a pattern of Josh's to trend on the low end of this metric over his career. Not necessarily that 60% is the absolute marker.

That is completion percentage, for QB's with 11 or more starts in each of 2018 and 2019. Just to normalize the data between both. That does also mean that Brees, Bridgewater, Tannehill, etc. do not make the cut in 2019.

I am going to harness my college stats classes for a minute. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong. The data is super easy to grab and sort on PFR. So just to put Allen in relation to his peers. I calculated the SD (using N, no need for N-1 because we know the sample size) for both 2018 and 2019 for QB's with 11+ starts (because Allen's rookie year was only 11 starts). The SD for 2018 was 4.55 and 2019 3.69. In 2018 Allen was nearly 3 SD back (2.75) and in 2019 1.44 SD's. So the data would suggest that both 1. Allen made huge individual strides in regards to completion percentage. and 2. He is still very close to the bottom of the league in relation to his peers performance.

In regard to standard deviation- The median pass attempts among the top 32 this year was 317. You didn't touch on the OL performance- Allen is the 6th most blitzed passer in the league, but only the 21st most hurried. According to PFR (defined as a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure). Would that be trending towards the offensive line takes a lot of blitz's but does an "OK" job picking them up? (We seem to have an issue with stunts) I understand where you are coming from with accuracy vs. on target. Based on the data available from this source, would you say it is statistically indicative of anything or should it just be tossed out? Per PFR, where I grabbed the on target and bad throw numbers, they define them as: Bad Throws: By QBs - throws that weren't catchable with normal effort On-Target Throws*: By QBs - throws that would have hit the intended receiving target I am curious of the actual break down and trends from somebody who spends more time with it.

Honest questions. What is the standard deviation for statistical significance during an NFL season. Just curious, would Allen have to jump to 65, 70, 75% or down to 50% for the year? Additionally in regards to the OL- Allen is the 6th most blitzed passer in the league, but only the 21st most hurried. According to PFR (defined as a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure). Would that be trending towards the offensive line takes a lot of blitz's but does an "OK" job picking them up? (We seem to have an issue with stunts) In regards to actual accuracy would having the 5th highest bad throw % while having the 21st lowest on target % indicate any sort of trend?

I am sure there are only a few of top 10 drafted QB’s without any sort of major star on his resume. That was sort of my point. There has been tons of QB’s who have Josh’s resume outside of his draft place. This far in his career his performance has been pretty similar to his journey. I like Josh. He’s an electric player. He hasn’t been a terribly good (consistent might be a better word) passer and really never has been. He could become one. To this point, given the QB market, he hasn’t earned a 35-40M mil new contract.

It’s not though. He was an unrecruited HS QB. Who went to play in JUCO. Then transferred to the Mountain West where he wasn’t dominant and couldn’t complete 60% of his passes. Now he is in the bottom 3rd of the league in most QB metrics. The only thing unique is that he was drafted in the top 10.

Show me on the doll where Poster B touched you...

This sentence is why we have all these 50 page threads on Josh. Poster A: "Josh has been really great" Poster B: "Josh has been pretty bad" Both are correct.

NO is perpetually on the hook for a Brees contract +1 year. They’ve spread his cap hit for a while now to a year after he retires. I think it’s 10 mil.

I second every part of this. Ill never forget his response to a reporter asking “do you think Bills fans were rug to boo the offense off the field” or something like that. His response was along the lines of I am not a Buffalo Bills fan, I am an NFL player. I always took issue with that. Marshawn is close to the top in my FO blunders. I always loved the guy. Wish he stayed a Bill.

Agreed on most of this. I would add that the legs shouldn’t be added as equal to passing. The QB needs to be a passer first and runner second. If your QB can add a wrinkle, it should help add to his ability to pass, not replace. A QB who can run for 500+ yards is awesome, but it shouldn’t be included as a replacement for passing yards, TD’s, etc. That said, in regards to Lamar, he did a good job of throwing the ball on the move to a moving target this year. I wouldn’t put much stock in a fun skills drill after a long season. Much like every athletic QB, his longevity will be dependent on is ability to throw the ball efficiently and effectively.

5/11=7/16

Yeah. It’s not really a hodge-podge. I was hoping it was. I kept talking about these 50% games, so I thought I would dig into it. Hoping to see Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, mixed with Dalton, Stanford, and of course some Jamarcus Russel. It’s basically a list of 17 average to bad passers, plus Luck (surprised), Eli (Meh passer), and super athlete Vick (bad passer)

These are every bodies rookie years. Yes some guys panned out as very good QB’s and good passers. Most of them did not and had so Monday games in their first two years under 50% because they simply were not proficient passers (yet). I don’t know what to tell you man. If want to asterisk Allen’s games individually, go ahead and do it for everybody. I don’t think Allen is in this terribly bad place where we his situation is so much worse then his current and historical peers.

I was originally talking about Allen's clunkers, where he failed to connect on at least 50% of his passes. I was asserting that when that happens, more often than not, most of the blame falls on the QB. Yes there is also blame on things like the OL, Defense, WR, etc. but largely, having a high frequency of games sub 50% is an issue with the passer himself. For reference, I quickly grabbed sub 50% completion games for QB's in their first 2 years/32 games, since 2000 Here are the bottom 20. It is not a great list Granted there are some outliers, but it is not a great list of QB's. Most (not all) of which we would say were not good passers. The search function on PFR is awesome. Name Number of Games Under 50% passing Tim Tebow 10 Eli Manning 9 Joey Harrington 8 Michael Vick 8 Vince Young 8 Josh Allen 7 David Carr 7 Joe Flacco 7 Blaine Gabbert 7 Andrew Luck 7 Mike McMahon 7 Kyle Orton 7 Patrick Ramsey 7 JaMarcus Russell 7 Mark Sanchez 7 DeShone Kizer 6 Colt McCoy 6 Christian Ponder 6 Geno Smith 6 Brandon Weeden 6