hondo in seattle

Kubiak had a mediocre 82-75 W-L (.522) record as a head coach. I'm not convinced that the Broncos won because of him. In might be more in spite of him.

Isn't Schatz the guy who once said this about Allen: "A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect... there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback... I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen." I hope he's right about the quality of the Bills team this year but I don't know how much I trust his analytical models.

Don't underestimate Reid. I remember thinking Philly made a huge mistake when they fired him and I certainly think there's a chance he would have won a championship there. It's like Belichick-Brady, Walsh-Montana... Great teams often have a good HC and a good QB. It's hard to disentangle who contributes more. You also have to ask yourself, who coached the QB up to his optimal level? Would Montana, for example, have ever achieved at such a high level without Walsh and his assistants coaching him up? Would Mahomes be this dominant if he started in the NFL with a different coaching staff and a different system?

Top three QB. 2nd ten contract. That's what you want.

Statistically, we were a top offense in spite of having a BAD o-line... This is true. When I look at Dorsey's statistical performance and think about the challenges he faced, it seems like he did very well. And yet when I watched games, I thought he could be so much better which his play-design, play-calling, usage of backs, etc. And, yeah, I know Josh had a UCL problem. I still think Dorsey slumped in the 2nd half of the year and became more predictable.

I think most coaches are doing everything they can to win the next game. But I think the upper-echelon coaches, like Reid and Belichick, think about seasons, not just games. For example, McD could do things like this: * Call no designed runs for Josh during the 2nd half of the season. Then call RPOs or QB keepers on critical third-downs in the playoffs against an unwary defense. * Use a mostly man-defense against the Pats. Not because it'll work better than zone. But because it'll work well-enough, and we want to put a man-heavy game plan on tape so future opponents have to prepare for it. * Not blitz for the four games before the Fins and then throw a sh*t-storm of blitzes against Tua.

I agree, there's talent. There's enough talent to win a SB with a bit of luck. Just not enough talent to guarantee a SB, even with good coaching. Each season, there are teams that are more talented than us - and more likely to win a Lombardi. Both the teams in the SB had better rosters than the Bills, particularly if you look at the shape of the Bills when we entered the playoffs. We were missing key guys. Other key guys, notably our QB, were playing hurt. Bad coaching didn't cost us a trophy.

Roger Saffold was a Pro Bowler. Having Pro Bowlers means nothing.

Agree 100%. Beane's done a nice job. We've got a great QB and a good overall roster. But it's not the best roster in the NFL. Not this year. Not any year. And that's why I don't want to fire McD. I think some years, he earned more wins than expected from the quality of the roster. I think in other years, he got about as many wins as you would reasonably expect. I don't think he's underperformed, but I agree he hasn't always overperformed. I have more frustrations with Beane than with McD. When you spend $258 million on your QB, you would think that the GM might protect & optimize that investment with an elite bodyguard. But our OL has been disappointing under Beane and that holds us back. Our offense has mostly consisted of one elite QB, one elite WR, and JAGS or worse everywhere else. But Beane and McD have brought us out of the depths of irrelevancy and transformed the Bills into one of the best (though not THE best) teams in the NFL. I think it's only smart to let them finish an unfinished job.

I hate to say this because I still love the man, but I thought Marv would be a good GM. I read an article about Mike Williams once and based on that one article, I decided he was going to be great.

Exactly. That rookie year was uncanny. I remember plays where Byrd seemed lost. But then the ball would be deflected right to him. 9 picks his freshman year in the NFL and averaged 2/year for the rest of his career. I actually thought his skills got better in this 2nd and 3rd years. But his luck got worse.

I always thought Byrd was overrated. Often out of position. The picks seemed more a function of luck than superior play’ Good to see the other top 5 spots are held by current Bills.

We have a SB caliber QB. But, IMHO, we haven't had a SB caliber roster. And yet folks want to fire the HC for not getting to the SB. Pre-McD, for 17 years long painful years, we didn't stand a chance of getting to the SB. We finally found a coach who gets into the playoff dance. We haven't won yet, but each year with McD we have hope. We enjoy a possibility that we didn't have before. Yet we want to fire the guy. We'd rather roll the dice on a hot coordinator when history tells us most hot coordinators flame out as HCs. I've heard all the arguments but, personally, I don't get it.

If I'm reading this right, it's weird. Half of Davis's routes are either nines, posts, or digs? And he barely runs routes to the outside (corner, out, comeback)? Doesn't seem balanced.

FWIW, PFF has our receiving corps rated ninth in the league. Since we're striving for a SB, I'd rather be rated #1, especially since we're a passing team. But we have a pretty good group and I think Josh will do some damage this year with these guys. www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-wr-corps-ranked-among-league-s-best-in-pff-s-latest-reveal/ar-AA1cESnM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3e0541621d75421c9353463770518624&ei=7

You're probably right: Diggs missing the first day was probably not a Josh issue. And I hope you're right that the Diggs-Allen spat is over. I don't have any inside information. I don't know what's going on. But it is something I'm interested enough in to watch closely with some degree of concern. I felt more comfortable when we kept hearing about the bromance between the two. But even if the bromance is over - and maybe it's not - that doesn't mean that the two of them can't tear it up together on the field.

Dak is reportedly a good leader. I don't know why people are upset by this. I think there are people on this board with better leadership skills than Allen. That's not a knock on Josh. But leadership doesn't seem to be Allen's forte. He's a strong-armed talented passer, a good runner, a fierce competitor, and an overall nice guy. But nothing I've seen or heard makes me think he excels as a leader. Then again, my opinion is based on observations from afar. I've never been in the huddle or locker room with Josh. But Beas has.

Obviously, I don't know who the friction is with. And it might be with more than one person. The one thing we do know is that Diggs blew up on Allen on the sideline only a few months ago. It's only speculation and rumor that Diggs is mad at anyone else.

A better version of Lil' Dirty.

I think the Bills are more likely to win the AFCE than the Jets, Fins, or Pats. But every year funny, unexpected things happen in the NFL so nothing is guaranteed. The funny, unexpected thing that I hope happens this year in the AFC is that the Bills beat both the Chiefs and Bengals on their way to the Lombardi.

A best-of-three playoff system would be fairer. But that's not realistic. I think we all have to accept that the system isn't entirely fair and the best team doesn't always win the Super Bowl. No matter what you do with the playoffs, you still only end up with 1 winner. 31 fan nations are going to be upset. GMs, coaches, and QBs will be the principal objects of their wrath.

I evaluate the same way: results versus talent. So, yes, it's reasonable. I can't imagine doing it any other way. I've noticed that. We haven't won a SB, yet, but we are winning a lot of games. So between Beane and McD, one of them must be doing something right.

When you enter the playoffs with playoff-average talent/health, you can expect an average playoff W-L record. The thing with a 1st round bye (three years in a row now) is that you jump into the playoffs when only the very good teams are left. Games between two very good teams is a coin toss. In 17 years before McD, we had zero playoff appearances. Since McD, we've had 9. I don't see his playoff record as a mark against him. It's a mark for him. For the past 3 or 4 years, we've entered each season with maybe a 10% or so probability of winning it all. That's a huge improvement over the 0% chance we had pre-McD. With enough time, he'll bring home a Lombardi. There's no guarantee, as you say. But there's no guarantee that Reid or Belichick will win another Super Bowl either. It's a game of probabilities and you do the best you can to tilt the odds in your favor. McD is doing that. Andy Reid didn't win the SB till his 21st season as a head coach. Now he's won 2 of the last 4. There's often a learning curve with these guys. And some luck. Plus, it sometimes takes time for HCs to build the staff they want. McD's first year, he hired whatever assistants he could find who weren't already under contract somewhere else. The longer McDs in the league as a stable, winning HC, the more good assistants and coordinators will want to work for him. I like the Pittsburgh model: only 3 head coaches in the past 54 years. That stability has brought them 6 Super Bowl wins. Coaches, trainers, and all the other staff of a franchise prefer to work in a stable environment. Stable teams attract better talent. Or we could follow the Bills model: fire your head coach whenever you feel disappointed. During that span when Pittsburgh had 3 HCs, we had 18. That instability brought us zero championships.

C'mon. Even the ''68 Bills, who went through 5 quarterbacks, won one game.

A few of my mafia brothers and sisters mention the tougher schedule. I don't really care about that. As long as the Bills stay reasonably healthy, they'll be AFCE champs once again. And, if healthy, they have a chance to make a run in the playoffs. Though with 31 other teams - maybe a dozen of which are legitimately good - it's foolish to predict, or demand, a SB appearance. But I probably feel better about the Bills this offseason than I have since the early 90s.