hondo in seattle

I agree with everything you wrote. I tend to think OJ was the greatest runner of all time - or perhaps second behind Jim Brown. But Thurm was a tremendous all-purpose back. He could run, catch, and block. He'd be perfect in this offense.

You make pronouncements that you pass off as facts. They are not. The data can be interpreted in different ways. I began my post with the preamble of "statistical gymnastics" because there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Stats are just numbers. You can use them to tell nearly any story you want. But here's the statistical story I believe: stability pays off. Over the past 50 years, the average Steeler coach lasted for about 17 years. Their three coaches won 6 Lombardi's. In the same period, our average HC lasted about 2.8 years. Our endless parade of coaches have never won a Lombardi. Being decisive - often considered a good trait in many situations - and quickly pulling plugs is not a smart strategy to take with HCs. Patience and perseverance pay off. The average team has a 3% of winning the Super Bowl. Good GMs and HCs can increase their probability to maybe 10%. It took Beane and McD two, or three years to reach that level. They've been at that level for maybe 3, maybe 4, years now. From a mathematical perspective, it's not time to panic. You don't fire the coach that brought you from 0-1% to 10% just because he hasn't hit on his 1-in-10 shot yet. There is no one path to the Super Bowl. Of those Steeler coaches, Cowher won in his 14th season. Tomlin won in his 2nd. They both contributed in their own way to Pittsburgh's enviable haul of six trophies.

Statistical gymnastics... There is a 3% chance each year of any particular team winning the SB. This is McD's 7th year. Of coaches who have coached in the Super Bowl era, roughly 25% (20 of 780) who coached for 7 or more years win a Super Bowl. Roughly half (13 of 27) of all coaches who coach for 13 or more years win a Super Bowl. The longer we hang on the McD, the better the odds.

I don't think we'll match last year's 13-3 record. I think we overachieved a bit in the regular season last year, given all the key injuries we had. And we're facing a tougher schedule this year. But I do think, barring significant injuries, we'll field a better team. And that bodes well - hopefully - for the playoffs.

Not "smart enough?" Younger guys who grew up in the 90's are smarter? Interesting perspective. If it's "all offense" as you say, then this is how you need to beat the Bengals or the Chiefs and their potent offenses: You have to slow those offenses down. And that requires defense. So even if it's "all offense," defense still wins games. Leaving special teams aside (sorry, Task), there are two critical battles on a gridiron. Their offense versus our defense. Their defense versus our offense. Each battle is equally important. If you win both battles, you ought to win the game. If you win one of two, the game can go either way. Both defense and offense are equally essential for wins. So, if I'm Beane or McD, I'm putting a lot of effort into improving both. In the Cinci game, both squads let us down. The offense was hampered by the weather, Josh's elbow, and a crap OL. The defense was hampered by guys not playing, or not playing 100%. The optimist in me sees us playing better on both sides of the ball this year.

Sometimes things just don't work out. FAs find higher bidders. Agents miscommunicate. Some players don't like certain cities, teams, coaches... Maybe a WR you want seems uninterested, so you sign someone else at a different position, and then the WR's agent comes back to you when it's too late cap-wise. It's not like shopping at the store. There are a lot of variables and what's on the shelf changes almost daily. On the whole, Beane did well this offseason, but you're right for wishing they did more at wideout. I don't see any of the pundits ranking our WR duo among the top of the league. No one ranks our OL very high either. When you have a QB like Allen, you want him to have a good bodyguard and good targets. So if I want to get controversial, I'll question the Von Miller signing. He's a good guy and a future HOFer. But that $120,000,000 could have gotten us a good #2WR.

That's true. But the two new RBs combined cost less than a "significant starting WR." On a limited budget and with some draft picks, Beane upgraded the offense. The OL is better. Our stable of backs is better. Kincaid adds another dimension at TE. The depth at WR is better though our disappointing #2 remains the same. If our QB stays healthy, we'll improve at that position, too, since he obviously had UCL problems last year. The offensive roster is far from perfect, but Dorsey has enough to work with that we ought to put up a lot of points.

I'm high on Harris for something other than stats. Though I concede my impression of him is largely based on Bills games - which are weirdly the best games of his career. But from what I've seen, compared to Motor, Harris is bigger, faster, and stronger. Harris is a much better inside runner for sure - and we need that - but he's a capable outside runner too with some burst. As for stats, the Pats run a far more balanced offense than ours. Our offense revolves around Josh - primarily as a passer but also as a runner. In fact, Josh has been the only runner Bills that opponents actually fear and game-plan against. The running backs in Buffalo are an afterthought. And that's why Motor has such a healthy YPC number. He plays against light boxes, DEs who focus entirely on Josh, and LBs whose first step is backward rather than forward toward the ball carrier. NE's opponents actually take Patriot RBs seriously and gameplan against them. It's therefore harder for Pats RBs to achieve good YPC numbers than Bills RBs.

I know racism is real and has real effects on fandom. But I don't think it's the operative thing here. Fitz is loved because he's Fitz. His personality makes him a very likable guy. As you mention, Fitz showed a love for the community that TT didn't show. How many times have we heard Fitz explain his deep appreciation for the fans of Buffalo? What other QB has shown up in the stadium, shirtless, cheering his heart out for the Bills? The love for Fitz transcends our love for (white) JP Losman, (white) Trent Edwards, (white) Doug Flutie, and (white) Drew Bledsoe not mainly because he was a better QB but because he's a more ebullient person. If I was asked which QB from the drought era I'd want to quarterback the Bills again, of course, I'd say none of them. But if forced to choose, I'd consider picking Tyrod because I do recognize the talents he possessed. But if asked which QB I'd want to hang out with, it would be an easy decision: Fitz because of his fun-loving personality. Incidentally, in 2016, the Bills finished 10th in the league in scoring with TT under center. It was an above-average offense. 2016 was the year Anthony Lynn started out as the RB coach, became the OC when Greg Roman was fired, and then finished the season as the HC when Rex was let go. It seemed Roman's running concepts, together with ALynn's play calling, were an effective combination for a dual-threat QB like TT.

I never saw the whole movie. But I saw enough to know I hated it and the main character.

I agree. Sort of. Tyrod was a good guy and he helped end the drought. I'm thankful. But he was a lackluster passer who would never take us far in the playoffs. Josh overshadows TT and makes him forgettable because Josh is such a better passer who brings the level of hope and excitement to a whole new level.

We had far more victories to be savored than defeats in those years. And reaching the SB four consecutive years was, and remains, unprecedented. But the pain of ending each year empty-handed endures.

I wish we had a better #2. But I don't think "the absence of a bona-fide #2 absolutely kills this team." I like the diversity and overall depth of the receiving corps. I like Harty and Sherfield in the roles they'll likely play. I like the different skill sets of Knox and Kincaid. I like Cook and Hines out of the backfield. I think we'll pass for a lot of yards and score a lot of points. This isn't a dead/killed offense. It's a very potent and dangerous one. But, yeah, it would be more dangerous if Diggs had a nearly equally skilled partner on the other side.

I've seen roster rankings between #3 to #8. If the best rosters in each conference meet in the SB, it'll sadly be Philly and KC again. At least according to ESPN. I do, personally, like our roster although our ability to dominate this season is riddled with if's... ... if all of last year's walking wounded regain their health & form. ... if Dorsey figures out how to use all his disparate weapons. ... if a replacement to Edmunds steps up. ... if our new stable of RBs works out. ... if this year's OL is better than last year's. On the whole, though, I'm actually probably a bit more optimistic this offseason than I was last offseason.

Cook is a talented guy and I hope you're right. But I'm not convinced yet that he's an every down back.

My view of Harris is a little different because I don't see him as Moss. Harris is bigger, faster, better. If Moss's stats are comparable, it's because Moss played against light boxes with us since we're a passing team. Since Brady left, Belichick has been running a far more balanced offense there. Defenses actually game-plan for the Pats' running attack because it's a real threat. Of course, my view of Harris is a bit skewed by his performances in Bills games. He always looked good against us. But I've visited Pats message boards and knowledgeable Pats fans do seem to think highly of him. Harris is not the best receiving threat, but he is a good all-around back you can leave in there on different down-and-distance situations.

Between guys getting healthy, FAs, and draft picks, I think every position group is better LB. Hopefully, we're not degraded by new injuries to key players. I don't want anyone to be injured but if players have to get hurt, I hope it's JAGs, not Josh, Tre, Von, or Diggs. If we stay reasonably healthy, we have a shot.

It's absolutely true that Beane has not - yet - built a Super Bowl quality roster. But it's hard to talk about errors. He tried to fix everything all at once - within the mighty restraints of the salary cap. And he's been largely successful. This is the best squad we've had since the early 90s. But, yeah, Beane tried to fix the OL mostly on the cheap with journeymen and it hasn't worked out. You would think that getting a capable bodyguard for your generational QB would have been a bigger priority. I wonder, though, if he had spent more on the OL, who wouldn't we have right now? Diggs? Miller? Someone else? The bottom line is this. Our roster isn't the best in the NFL. But, each year, it's one of the best. With a little luck, we'll get a trophy before McD and Beane are done.

Did we do enough? Probably not. We certainly don't have the best roster in the NFL. But it's a good roster - somewhat better than last season's squad, I think. And sometimes the best roster doesn't take home the Lombardi. It's certainly not a certainty. It's not even a probability. But we have a legit shot.

Weird. The Romans built concrete buildings with quicklime (rather than slaked lime) that had self-healing properties and lasted thousands of years. Modern engineers can't build something out of concrete that maintains its integrity for more than 10 years?

I'm not sure Allen meant it as a dig at Diggs. But this is a good point. QBs usually talk about a receiver's work ethic, route running, speed, hands, separation, preparation... Not his lack of complaining. You do have to wonder why that trait came to Allen's mind.

So we have no playmakers... Our OL has been bad... We don't have a marquee RB... Our QB played with a bad UCL... But we should fire our coach for not winning the SB? The thought process of fans confuses me sometimes. But I do think that if Barnwell updates his ranking at the end of this season, he'll have us higher. Josh and Diggs are the only proven playmakers on the team, so I get his POV. But I think the cumulative contribution of the rest of the skill position guys will give the Bills a potent offense.

I'll go out on a limb and say Harris starts, though Cook will get his touches both as a ball carrier and as a receiver out of the backfield. Harris and Cook will get the most carries. Murray and Hines will both be used in certain situations but with significantly fewer touches than Harris and Cook. I do hope Dorsey uses Hines some in the passing game. He can catch and is dangerous in space.

The game looked bad in the beginning. The Chargers' star RB, Keith Lincoln had a 38-yard run on the opening play against a good Bills D. San Diego jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead. But at 5:52 you'll witness the "hit heard round the world" - Mike Stratton's devasting smackdown of Lincoln that broke his ribs and knocked him out of the game. The Chargers didn't score again. Cookie ran for 122 yards on 16 carries that day. Too bad there was no Super Bowl back then.

I love to believe this happened somewhere in the multiverse.