hondo in seattle

The play a couple of weeks ago when Josh threw to Gabe in the endzone and was picked... How do you grade that? Did Josh just make a bonehead play under duress? Or did Gabe go to the wrong spot based on the defense? How does the PFF grader know? Even if the grader is a former All-Pro, he can't know. He can only guess. You see this with linemen, too. Sometimes, for example, you'll see an OL fail to pick up a blitzer. I imagine PFF gives him a bad grade. But we don't know what the lineman was asked to do. Maybe the back was supposed to pick up the blitzing LB but went out to the flat instead. Assignments matter. Some egregious blunders I see during the game make a lot more sense when I hear the explanations in the post-game interviews. The explanations change my perspective. But not PFF's.

Sure, coaches are wrong sometimes. Talent evaluation is an inexact science. But comparing dedicated professionals to the amateurs at PFF is a stretch. Coaches have expertise in football. PFF's analysts have expertise in statistics. PFF's graders are young guys with no credentials and boring lives who sit at home watching out All-22 handing out subjective, uninformed grades. Coaches, on the other hand, consider the assignment, the situation, and what the player was coached to do when giving out a grade. Yes, coaches sometimes evaluate guys poorly. But let's remember what an analytics guru once famously said, "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself." I'm not saying there's no place for analytic sites like PFF. I trust they do the math right. But I'll trust the football professionals to evaluate football. If the coaches' grades don't line up with PFF, my hunch is PFF needs to get better.

One of the more unsurprising Bills signings ever.

Worth a watch. Thanks. Enjoyed the talk about the Dunne article as well as the conversation about Josh sliding and McD encouraging the team to play free.

You're right when you say they're not the players they used to be but don't underestimate them. They're still (2023) interchangeable and use that to disguise coverages. They make physical errors sometimes, but they rarely make mental mistakes. And other players have said their communication helps the CBs and LBs in front of them. Maybe we move on next year, but they still add value this season.

I was in Arrowhead when we beat them 38-20 in the regular season. I thought that was the changing of the guard. It wasn't. I do think maybe this year we have a somewhat better overall team - if Milano, White, Von, et al. were all healthy. But, frustratingly, this Sunday they'll line up the better roster. But that doesn't necessarily mean they'll win. I'm hoping Josh is hot and Mahomes is not, and the ball bounces our way. Another 38-20 victory - at home and in the playoffs - would be very sweet. I'll worry about next week, and next year, later.

I remember when our punter was the loneliest, least active guy in the NFL. I'm hoping for that kind of game from our offense.

Agreed. With our defense in the hospital, our offense is going to have to be productive. Their DBs are very good. We need to have patient, stick-moving drives with heavy use of the TEs, Cook (both as a receiver and runner), and Josh's legs.

Maybe I'm wrong but I doubt if many NFL fans label Araiza a "pervert." He went to a college party and had sex with a girl whose age he didn't know. That doesn't sound perverted. It sounds normal. The sex drive is the reason our species exists. I guess that many NFL fans, when they were college-aged, had sex with 17-year-olds. In most states, it's perfectly legal. In most cultures, it's perfectly acceptable. Think of famous love stories. Marc Antony was a Roman cavalry officer serving in Egypt when he first fell in love with 14-year-old Cleopatra. Juliet was 13 when she mixed it up with Romeo. Heloise was between 13 and 15 when she had her romance with her much older teacher, Abelard. Far from perverts, she went on to become a famous abbess and he became Europe's leading theologian. None of these people are remembered by history as perverts. I'm not advocating for underage sex. I just don't see Matt as a pedophile or pervert. And I think most NFL fans would agree with me.

Never charged. Never arrested. Never tried. Never convicted.

Lenny's made it clear he was unhappy with his role (or lack of one). But he wasn't impressive when he played. I know Lenny has always been slow but watching him run, I thought my TV switched to slow motion. Not to knock our OL, which has been much better this year, but when they do open holes, the holes often close quickly. Cook hits those holes with burst and vision. Lenny slowly rumbles into them... eventually.

I do worry about wimpifying football. But under the current rules, I thought it was clearly a penalty.

Understood. And it could work out. But I'd be more comfortable in the playoffs with a punter who's played in the NFL before (both as a punter and a holder) and has done so recently. But Araiza does know how to hold and can kick the snot out of a ball.

The similarity to 2022 is what has me worried, Doc. I feel like we're limping into the Chiefs game the way we limped into last year's playoff game with the Bengals. Too battered and bruised to compete with a good team. By the end of the game yesterday, we were missing our 4 best CBs (White, Douglas, Benford, Johnson) and our 4 best LBs (Milano, Bernard, Dodson, Spector). Meanwhile, KC will line up two All-Pro quality DBs against us. And they have 2 extra days for recuperation and preparation. Fingers crossed, we'll get some good news when the injury report gets updated. But with the defense in bandages, I think we may need Josh to don his Superman cape and put a lot of points on the board.

Agreed. As much as I think Araiza deserves another chance, now is not the time.

I'd be a lot more jacked if we were healthier.

Klein is the definition of a fringe player. The Bills cut him in August of last year. Then re-signed him a month later. Then cut him again on December 9th. Then re-signed him on January 11. He was on the street a week ago. And this week he was playing in front of 70,000 screaming fans in a playoff game. Pretty cool.

Wasn’t there a college team that never punted because the analytics said it’s better not to?

I’d like to keep Shakir in his current role but replace Davis with a Lee Evans type vertical threat with speed.

Well, I watched the video on whataboutism! Thanks for the link. You've indeed done your part. But when I mentioned famine or whatever it was that I mentioned, it wasn't a rhetorical tool to try to win an argument. I don't care about winning a debate. I was just expressing how I feel about the subject. As a Stoic-Buddhist, I am not as worry-free as I should be. But I do try not to sweat the small stuff. Ignorance of lake effect snow is something I personally consider small stuff. But I don't see any need for other people to value what I value, or devalue what I devalue. Stoicism, btw, teaches people to be indifferent to the things they can't control. I try to embrace that teaching in most things. But not when it comes to the Bills, I'm not indifferent to the outcome of today's game. This isn't small stuff and I'm sweating it. I've irrationally put my mental health in the hands of a bunch of kids playing a game. If the Bills win, I'll be happy. If they lose, I'll be grumpy the rest of the day. Maybe the rest of the month. We all have our hang-ups.

So would I. Then again, each year there seems to be at least one HC hiring that surprises me. It shouldn't surprise us to be surprised.

I successfully registered there earlier in the season - before they were bitter about the end of season.

I grew up in Cheektowaga. When I went to college, my parents moved to the Southtowns where it really snows. Haven't lived in Buffalo since and, no, it doesn't bother me when I have to explain lake effect snows. I'm not a very smart man. The opportunity to intelligently explain something is good for my self-esteem. Anyway, why should it bother me? There are murderers, rapists, pedophiles, and terrorists all over the world. They bother me. Someone who's a little obtuse about lake effect snow isn't a problem worth worrying about.

Hochul mentioned talking to emergency response teams. And I don't doubt that public safety was a legitimate concern. But Kathy is a Bills fan. She knows the Bills game needs to be in Buffalo. And that bad weather can be an equalizer. And that a stadium full of screaming mafia is an advantage. And that all her friends and family wanted her to do right by the Bills. I don't think for a minute that public safety was her only consideration.

Bills culture, meditation, hand pans, ayahuasca... Good interview. Poyer is a positive-energy, Bills-loving dude.