hondo in seattle

Great response!

I'm not a trained mind-reader. I have no idea if Josh's focus, concentration, and determination are already maxed out or not. I have no reason to believe Josh is less than Mahomes in these areas. Mahomes wins Super Bowls when Josh doesn't because Pat's on a better team.

I agree with your conclusion because I've made the same comparisons in my head. If our injury luck improves, we can close the gap. But to overtake the Chiefs will require some skillful wheeling and dealing from Beane. We have a lot of players becoming FAs and a lot of holes. In addition to a strong roster, though, you need three critical guys to lead a football team to the Super Bowl: a good GM; a good HC; and a good coordinator for the other side of the ball. The Chiefs have Veach, Reid, and Spags. We have Beane, McD, and Brady. I like our Big Three. But theirs is better.

Generally speaking, I'm of the opinion that playoff football is exactly the same as regular season football. Same rules. Same players. Same objectives. I do believe, however, that some coaches, Andy Reid for example, save some things for the playoffs. For instance, I believe Reid sometimes runs plays or shows tendencies during the season so that he can surprisingly do something contrary in the playoffs. I think Reid is very conscious and intentional about what he's putting on tape for future opponents to see. However, I think players and coaches who try to coach/play differently in the playoffs usually shoot themselves in the foot. You have a routine that's worked for you in the regular season. You've already done your best to optimize that routine. So just continue to follow it. Gameplan the same way. Practice the same way. Eat and sleep the same way. I think most coaches think like this. I don't think Reid is a better playoff coach than Shanahan - or McDermott. I think he's just a better coach who's built a better coaching staff. The Bills' mediocre playoff record is predicated on these things... The talent of our coaches has been roughly average compared to other playoff teams. The talent of our players has been roughly average compared to other playoff teams. Our injury situation has tended to be worse than average. And let's not forget that earning first-round byes means the Bills will get no weak opponents.

If you kick, it's like doing reconnaissance in the army. By kicking you know what you're up against. Did the other team score 3 on their drive? 7? Zero? Letting the other team go first tells you what you need to accomplish. If the opponent scores on the opening OT drive, you're not playing with 3 downs anymore. You're playing with 4. And it's really hard to stop a good offense playing with 4 downs. They only need to average 2.5 yards per play.

Good News: The Chiefs do indeed have a lot of excellent players and coaches. Yet we went toe-for-toe with them twice this season. We're nearly as good. Bad News: We don't have the cap space to get any better. I'm hoping Beane does some magic and pulls a rabbit out of his hat. Actually, I'm hoping for a few rabbits.

The whole conversation is subjective when we're using words like "best," "unique," and "special." But I don't think I'm being "tribalistic" - at least not very much so. I lived in Seattle for several years and some there sincerely believe Hawk fans are the best in the world. Fans everywhere think like that. And Century Link/Lumen does indeed get very loud. So does Arrowhead in KC where I've also lived and watched games. Yet I don't sense the same level of fanaticism in either city. Steeler and Packer fans are famously passionate, loyal, and loud. But I think you need to also consider W-L records. Those are storied franchises with all-time winning records and Lombardis in their trophy cases. It's easy to root for a team that wins. Loyal Lions fans have a point about their fandom. Are there soccer teams with more rabid fanbases? Maybe. I don't follow soccer and haven't spent a lot of time in places where soccer rules. My personal fandom is pretty obvious. There are Bills stickers on my cars. My phone is protected by a Bills case. My wallet is embossed with a Bills logo. Naturally, when I travel people make comments. And they're just as likely to mention the mafia as they are Josh Allen - often something like, "Your fans are crazy!" Despite the naysayers here, I still believe the connection between the Bills and their fans is special. Entirely unique and totally unlike anything anywhere else? Well, no. But when you consider the total picture: the generous charitable giving, the loyalty through hard times, the loudness of the fans, the mayhem in the tailgating lots, the prominence of Bills gear among the population, the local TV ratings, the way we take over opposing stadiums, and so on... I think the mafia stands out.

The Chiefs have proven that they can also beat any team in the league when they don't beat themselves. The past four games, they beat Miami, our Bills, Baltimore, and the 49ers. It was a heck of a run. We're almost in the same league as the Chiefs. Our games against them are usually close. Yardage totals are close. Wins over the past few years are almost even. But they get their wins in the playoffs. Until we get over that hump, they're the better team.

The article, written by two PhDs, was ambivalent and didn't convince me of anything other than more work needs to be done.

This is an honest question. The Bills' fanbase is different. Players often say we have the best fans in the league and I think they sincerely believe it. Though players on other teams sometimes say the same thing. Of course, there's no way to measure fandom. You can't use attendance because it's easier to fill up a stadium in city with a metro population of 10 million versus one with 1 million. And a team that wins is usually going to sell more tickets than a team that loses (To our credit, Bills fans show up despite an all-time losing record). And you can't use season tickets because it's easier to sell them in a city full of millionaires versus a city where people struggle to get by. So how do you create a metric for fandom that includes not only attendance, but gear worn, cheering volume, fan loyalty, snowmen built, tables smashed, tears shed, and everything else that goes into it? You can't. Still, as someone who's spent time in most NFL cities, I remain convinced we have the best fans in the NFL. But why? I've been driving around the San Francisco Bay Area this Super Bowl week and I've seen 49er gear being worn and flags being flown. But it seems I see less of that stuff than I'd see in Buffalo on a typical game-day weekend. And then I thought about demographics. Barely half of San Franciscans speak English at home. A third of San Franciscans were born in another country. Two-thirds were born out-of-state. San Jose/Santa Clara (the new home of the 49ers) is even more diverse. Some of these folks might be casual bandwagon 49er fans but they didn't grow up rooting for the 9ers and they don't bleed team colors like you and I do. Many growing NFL cities are very cosmopolitan with transient populations that don't build up intense team loyalties. I think that's part of the explanation why Bills fans are different. But I don't think that's the whole story. What would you add?

Kelly did have a better cast of characters. I agree.

I ask myself that. Even though he was still young, when he was cut by the Bills, I thought his NFL career was over. Reports were that he looked good in camp. But his regular season performances were stupefyingly bad. It was the first - and only - time I thought a young guy played himself out of the league. I was wrong.

Kelly was more consistently accurate with the ball, despite the lower completion percentage. Not all good throws are completions. Sometimes receivers drop balls, or are separated from balls with good hits, or step out of bounds... And sometimes QBs throw incompletions intentionally or are hit when throwing the ball... Sometimes, I would watch games and count how many bad throws Kelly made. In most games, there were very, very few.

I was excited when we acquired Vince. He had led the Rams to the playoffs multiple times - even as far as the Super Bowl. He threw for 500+ yards in a game once. I thought we had found a credible QB to replace Fergy. Ferragamo was the first QB I saw wearing plays on his wrist. Back in those days, it was a turn-off. I figured he was either too lazy or dumb to learn the playbook. Nonetheless, he threw for 377 yards in his first game as a Bill! We were off and running! It was the only good game he ever had as a Bill. That year, Ferragamo and Bruce Mathison combined for 9 TD passes versus 31 interceptions. We scored a mere 200 points all season long - far and away, the most anemic offense in the league. Both of these QBs richly deserve to be in this conversation.

Joe Brady, "Do simple better."

The bolded is very true. Back in the 60s and 70s, NFL offenses were built around RBs, and college backs were drafted high, often 1st overall. If you were young, fast and athletic, you wanted to be a RB. Slow-footed, less-athletic guys found other positions to play, like QB. Now the best athletes are WRs and DBs. And, as you say, more and more of them are becoming QBs. If the next CMC was in the draft, I'd want him the way an addict wants his next score. But would the level of confidence be high enough to ignore all our other - more blatant - needs? Probably not. Some stats guru, I don't recall which one, once analyzed player injuries. The loss of a starting QB was the only injury that made a measurable statistical difference in W-L probabilities. I imagine that works in reverse, too. Getting a back that's maybe 5% better than your current starting back probably won't impact your season record. Finding someone 20% better, which might, is unlikely unless you have a truly awful starter. Cook isn't truly awful. It's taken a while for me to admit this but he's actually good. Yet, I still fantasize about a backfield that consists of Josh and Thurman Thomas. And when we want power, Cookie Gilchrist comes in at FB.

As I understand it, the QB coach breaks down film of the opposing team with the QBs looking for tendencies and weaknesses. The QB coach also helps run drills and goes over this week's plays with the QBs (the entire playbook isn't in use every week). So even if the QB is experienced, there's a lot to do before each game to prepare. In the offseason, a QB coach will help 'install' the offense. It seems a bit weird to me but what QB coaches don't usually do (though there are exceptions) is coach QBs on biomechanics and how to throw the ball. If a QB wants to work on that part of his game, he has to do it with a QB-whisperer in the off-season. I've heard coaches and players say that Brady is collaborative and takes suggestions and feedback from his players and coaches. So, Curry will have some input on scheme and play calling.

Buffalo has been blessed with some talented backs over the years. For instance, Cookie was a bruiser. OJ was an elusive artist. Thurman was a Swiss army knife. All were tremendous in their distinctive ways. GB, I don't agree that all the people who want to upgrade Cook want a different style. They just want someone better. I like Cook well enough but if I had the chance to replace him with a clone of Cookie, or OJ, or Thurm, I would. Any one of them. The more potent our running game is, the less defenses can focus on stopping Josh. Imagine if we had a RB who was as talented as our QB. How do you defend that? Where I might disagree with those wanting an upgrade is in the evaluation of the opportunity cost. With only so many cap dollars and draft picks to spend, we can't chase everything we may want. We have bigger needs than RB - positions where an upgrade would provide a bigger ROI.

Before the season, I thought of Cook as a third-down back who would be a good safety valve out of the backfield. He's a better runner than I thought. Good vision and burst. Effective up the middle which I doubted. But he's a worse receiver than I thought. The drops were killer.

This is an interesting hire. I thought Shula would get the job.

The record doesn't prove that Belichick isn't a great coach. It's just the reality that coaches don't suit up. Coaches help but players play the games. And what these comparative stats don't measure is how much Belichick helped Brady become Brady. Brady's success isn't just about his precision. It's about his ability to read defenses, process information, and make good decisions. I don't know how much of that is due to Belichick, but I assume some of it is. If I were an owner, these are the three staff positions I'd want to fill first with superstars: GM, HC, and opposite coordinator (if the HC is a defensive guy, I'd want a genius OC; and vice versa). And I'd want my GM to find a superstar QB. With those four in place, it's hard to lose. The Pats dynasty isn't all about Brady. Belichick played a critical role. He also played a key role in the collapse of the dynasty with his failures as a GM.

For a team that's been on top of the AFCE for a few years now, we have a long shopping list. I'm hoping Beane finds a way to upgrade the roster and get us into the SB but he certainly has his work cut out for him.

With geriatric Frazier, we had one of the best defenses in the NFL. I don't think our failures in the playoffs had anything to do with Frazier's age. Youth isn't an automatic cure. Frazier was born the same year I was, btw. I don't believe my cognitive skills, imagination, inventiveness, mental energy, etc. have declined at all. Saying Frazier is too old to run a good/aggressive defense is an insult to everyone my age. Spags in KC is the same age as Frazier and me and seems to be doing just fine. Prejudice based on age is just as pernicious as prejudice based on race, gender, ethnicity, or anything else.

Daboll was recently effusive in his praise of Dorsey: "First, he’s a great person, a great teammate... He’s very smart. He’s a good leader. He’s very good with scheme and X’s and O’s... He has a good understanding of just football in general... He’s well-versed in a variety of systems, and obviously the spread and RPO worlds are two components he has a really good mind for... Ken is just a really good teacher. He’s well-prepared. He did a great job with the quarterbacks when I was with him. He leaves no stone unturned... He’s competitive and he was just really detailed with that position, so when he was with me, I leaned on him a lot. He has good ideas. Good with scheme, good with fundamentals, a really good football coach.” So what went wrong? The offense looked stale, predictable, and one-dimensional after the three big blowouts.

I love the enthusiasm! But I'm not convinced the youth of our OC/DC duo gives us a competitive advantage. If I was a soldier going to war, I'd be worried about being led by some kid fresh from the academy who's never been under fire before. I'd rather go to war with the grizzled old vet with a reputation as a tactical genius who's already fought and won many battles. But who knows? Maybe both Brady and Babich turn out to be tactical geniuses. I can only hope.