hondo in seattle

I both agree and disagree. McD has one of the highest winning percentages in NFL history and you can't say it's all Josh. The NFL has been around 100+ years and a lot of coaches have been blessed with impactful players, yet only an elite few have won a higher percentage of games. Putting both McD and Beane on the hot seat isn't the right path, IMHO. This tandem has been very good. But if you do fire either one, figure out who deserves the least credit for the wins and the most blame for the lack of SBs. Personally, I think Beane is the least excellent of the two. I don't think there's been a season yet, this one included, when we've had the best roster in the league. So why expect McD to earn us a Lombardi when he's going up against teams with better rosters? But I also think this: (A) there are no certainties in football, only probabilities, and (2) Lady Luck has a lot to say and the best team doesn't always win. Beane and McD earn us a ticket to the dance every year. I'm thankful for that. To tilt the probabilities in our favor, I hope they both get a bit better at their jobs. But I wouldn't advocate firing either because I think the probability in that case is that we get worse.

I've made one bet in my life - not including non-cash bets with friends. Many years ago, I thought the Bills line was shockingly wrong so I bet on the Bills. I lost and learned my lesson. On another occasion, I had to wear a Seahawks jersey all day because of a lost bet. That sucked too.

5:50 "The hit heard around the world." One of the most famous tackles in Bills lore. Keith Lincoln was a league MVP that year and had already scored an early TD. Stratton broke his ribs and took him out of the game. Back in 1990, ESPN rated this the greatest hit in NFL history. Correction: It's at 28:00 in the first vid, 5:50 in the second.

Do all teams say, "Love you," as much as the Bills? Is that a big thing now? When I played high school ball we never said "Love you," though we did pat each other on the butts all the time so there is that.

The Ravens have the best offense in the league. And since the bye, they've had the best defense as well. Their QB is a dual threat two-time MVP and first-team All Pro. Their RB is a beast (and the Bills don't have the personnel to shut down a good powerback). Their receivers lead the league in separation. Their OL is composed of 300 lb animals. They have 9 Pro Bowl and 6 All Pro players. It might be the most talented roster in the league - certainly more talented in the Bills. We ought to lose this game. But I believe Josh and McD, combined, give us a chance.

Interesting, but not surprising, that Josh has the highest scramble rate in the league.

Bigger than Watson? Bigger than Ditka trading away his entire draft?

Sure, you make a good point. But often you can read between the lines. Players who don't like their coaches either don't mention them or damn them with faint praise. There have been a few times I felt players may have damned our coaches, including McD, with faint praise. But there have been many other times when they've gone out of their way to praise their coaches. And former players like Eric Wood (not anonymous guys as in in the Dunne article) seem to respect McD and say things like, "McDermott always leads" and "The team has his back." And of course the Bills players, in the last NFLPA survey, gave McD a grade of "A." Put it all together and it seems the players respect McD more than the fans do.

It's interesting to me that players seem to have a higher opinion of McD and the coaching staff than fans do. The camaraderie they talk about, the preparation, the unity, the resilience... it all comes from the coaches.

I'm asking these questions not to argue but because I respect your knowledge... And I agree that we have mostly non-separators. But couldn't a better passing game coordinator find ways to get guys open anyway especially considering we face more zone than man defense? And, btw, I'm not anti-Brady. After an inconsistent start, he really found a groove. He effectively passed the ball against teams that were weak against the pass and ran the ball against teams that were weak against the run. But even good OCs have weaknesses. People in NE said Daboll's weakness before he came here was the run game. To a casual observer like me, Brady's weakness seems to be the mid and deep passing game. Though I do question myself because I know our receiver corps has shortcomings too.

I get what you're saying but this isn't exactly true. During the regular season, we passed 51.6% of the time and ran 48.4% of the time. It's also important to remember we averaged 228 yards per game passing against 131 yards rushing this season. In other words, passing is still more important to the Bills than rushing which makes sense when it's a "passing league" and your most talented player is your QB. I think McD saw that teams were selling out to stop Josh so he hired Kromer, asked Beane for some help on the OL, and tasked Brady with building a better run game.

I don't know. If the vote is public, it's hard to vote against your friend.

GB, let me ask a question because I don't watch a lot of replay but I watch some. And what I see in the passing game is that our TEs and RBs get open a fair amount. Maybe even our slot guy(s). But not our wideouts. This is backed up by advanced metrics that say our receivers are below the league average in separation. You could argue that our wideouts just aren't very good. Or you could argue, like I do, that Brady doesn't excel at scheming wideouts open. You could also argue that I'm just wrong in my observations & assumptions and that the stats that say our wideouts aren't getting separation are inaccurate. What's your take on this?

For Brady to leave, two things must happen. 1. A team with an opening thinks he's the right guy. 2. Brady thinks the team that offers him a job, if any, is the right opportunity. With lots of competition and only six openings, it seems unlikely both #1 and #2 will happen this year.

Brady, without any elite players at skilled positions other than QB, puts a lot of points on the board. I think he's an excellent OC. But, at the same time, I don't think he's the best at scheming routes that get outside receivers open.

Maybe not elite but not a jag either. He'd be a loss if we let him walk.

I noticed this too. It's like he stopped being a player and went into fan mode.

I agree our D hasn't been stellar this season and Baltimore is a bad matchup for us. I disagree however when you say this: "Unfortunately our defense playing McD’s bend don’t break nonsense..." Did you see bend-don't-break today? Has that been McD's M.O. over the years? Our defensive roster isn't particularly strong this year. Worse, it's been banged up. So teams, especially power running teams, have been able to move the ball. In a few games, we stiffened up in the red zone which gave the illusion of bend-don't-break. The last time we played the Ravens, it was all bend-then-break. It's not philosophy, it's just how things work out sometimes when you don't have great players on the field. McD's philosophy is to play a lot of 4-2 and disguise coverages to stop the pass first. He tries to stop the run with well-coached players, teamwork, and speed - but not size and power. What he wants is three-and-outs, not bend-don't-break. We're just not talented enough to make that happen all the time.

I underrated our defense again, but my offensive prediction was more or less right.

If you're his parent or friend, it's tragic. If you're one of the victims, it's tragic.

Let's say there's once you reach this level, every game is more or less a 50-50 proposition. At this point, there's roughly a 12% chance that the Bills win the Lombardi. If the 88% probability happens and the Bills don't win it all, McD will be blamed regardless of what goes wrong.

3 of 4 beat writers for the Denver Post are predicting a Bills victory. The lone dissenter wrote this... "Upside? The football gods hate Buffalo, so anything’s possible." He's not wrong. I'm still expecting the Bills to win this one but ultimately suffer the wrath of those gods once again before the SB.

Surtain barely matters. As you say, he takes away the #1 but we don't have a #1. We have "Everyone Eats." Let's say you're right and he covers Coop. Well, Cooper has only been averaging about 2.5 catches per game with the Bills. Shutting Coop down won't decide the game. Surtain's a great cover corner who'll stay tight to whoever he's assigned. So what? According to advanced metrics, our receivers don't get separation. Yet we move the ball and score points anyway.

Offense: Cook Defense: Bernard Bills win.

A simple analysis says this will be close game. The Bills offense scores about 31 points per game. The Broncos D gives up about 18. Average that out and the Bills should score about 25. The Denver offense scores about 25 points per game. Our D gives up about 22. Blend those and the Broncos should score about 24. This simplistic analysis has the Bills winning 25-24. Or perhaps 28-24 when you consider homefield advantage. Curiously, ELO ratings (which account for the strength of the opponent) have the Broncos ranked ahead of the Bills. Yet nfelo does some voodoo math to give the Bills a 72% win probability. I personally already predicted a big Bills win. Call me a homer but I think the Brady-Allen thing is on fire.