billsfan1959

He tripped before the ball was anywhere close to him. Go back to the post you quoted. I added a picture showing McKenzie falling to the ground and the ball is still almost five yards away from him. Watch the All22. The ball wasn’t anywhere close to McKenzie when he tripped.

I didn't say the ball was behind him. I said it looked like it was a little behind him only because McKenzie tripped and fell forward before the ball got to him. I am not a McKenzie basher and have never written a bad word about him. But that was on him. I also posted about the ball that went right through Diggs' hands in the endzone in the Ravens game thast should have been a TD as well. You can see it however you see it. For me, if McKenzie doesn't trip and fall forward that pass is on the money and a TD. You can see where the ball is in this picture. McKenzie has already tripped and is going to the ground, forcing him toi reach up and back - which makes it appear the ball was behind him. If he stays on his feet, the ball is right there.

The pitch play was just awkward all the way around. The pass appeared to be a little behind McKenzie only because he tripped and fell forward. If he stays on his feet that is a TD every time. That was 100% on McKenzie. He didn’t have a good game. I’m not into demeaning his intelligence; however, he certainly deserves all the criticism he is receiving for his play.

I am not arguing just to argue. I dismissed the stats you listed because they had no predictive value at an individual level. It is that simple. I gave numerous examples to explain my position. Group statistics have their value, but not in the manner you want to use them. For example, when you list a category that Allen fell below his peers, say completion %, did you find any research that broke down every variable that affects completion % for every QB being compared? Of course not, it would be an almost impossible task. So, saying he fell below his peers in completion % says nothing about why - which, ultimately, is what really matters in starting to evaluate a specific individual. You cannot get the "why" from the statistics you cited. In the end, we can just agree to disagree.

The bolded points: (1) Don't just say there were many stats, list them. I guarantee they have no predictive value at an individual level. (2) Bingo! The situations and other specific variables have to be comparable. That rules out group statistics. Thank you.

We can agree to disagree. I will leave it on these points: (1) How in the world did Allen defy statistics that said absolutely nothing at all about whether or not he would be successful? (2) NFL Departments have advanced statistical capabilities run by people who understand science, statistics, and that historical group data says nothing about an individual. (3) Are you defying the statistics if you live into your 80s or 90s because historical group statistics say the average male dies at 72? Or does your genetic make-up, your diet, your excercise regimen, stress levels, and all those other personal variables actually say your odds of living into your 80s or 90s is quite high?

I had this argument over and over with people back in 2018. The fact is that Allen's completion % in college said nothing about him being less likely or more likely to be successful. The reason for that is there so many variables, specific to each individual QB, that go into completion %, that placing them in groups soley based on completion % and using that placement as being predictive of success or failure is idiotic - and certainly not statistically sound. Again, group statistics may tell you that 80% of QBs in a specific group are likely not to be successful. However, they cannot tell you which QBs in that group will be in the 80% group that will be unsuccessful - or the 20% group that will be successful. That is where specific variables unique to each individual comes into play.

No, I don't believe Beane hesitated at all with Allen because of historical data on QBs who had less than a sub 60% completion rate in college: (1) Because he is smart enough to know it has no bearing on Allen as an individual and (2) He and his staff went through all of the data specific to Allen at Wyoming and understood that a low completion % does not equal innacuracy. Meeting with Allen is one of the ways in which they gathered data specific to him and is the core of my argument. It is the individual traits and characteristics (both physical and mental), along with environmental variables, that ultimately determine whether or not a QB is successful - not group statistics. That was my entire point. Group statistics are not very meaningful at predicting individuual results.

Saying that most QBs with a sub 60 completion % in college don't make it in the NFL is a group statistic based on an incredibly small data pool. Again it says nothing about the individual. It's like actuarial data used by insurance companies. Group data may indicate that the average age of death for men in the US is 72; however, all of the data they base it on says nothing about how long you, as an individual, will live. By that same argument, you could say every QB that became a successful NFL QB "defied statistics" because the vast majority of QBs drafted, even in the 1st round, end up average or below at the NFL level. Again, group statistics have no predictive ability at the individual level and there is absolutely no statistical data that could predict whether Allen was going to be successful or not.

No he did not. Please show me any statistic that indicated Josh Allen, as an individual, was not going to be a successful NFL QB.

He actually didn't defy any statistics. (1) The pool of comparable players is so small that any data drawn is relatively useless, (2) Any statistics that do exist are group statistics and have pretty much no predictive utility on an individual level, and (3) There simply isn't any data encompassing all the individual variables that go into determining who will or will not become a franchis QB - or even a successful NFL QB. The argument that he "defied" statistics is tantamount to saying "nobody saw this coming," both of which seem to be uttered by people who were wrong about him.

People didn't want to look closely. They just bought into lazy narratives. Beane didn't "luck" into Allen. He didn't use all those resources to select a QB at #7 that didn't have what he believed were the traits, abilities and potential to be a franchise QB.

it is a good philosophy. I actually am not one that tends to hang on to negative emotions. However, there are certain things that still stay with me to some degree. But not enough to keep me from enjoying the renaissance taking place with my team...

I will pause my hate of the Dolphins for a brief moment to say that a perfect season is an incredible accomplishment. Nothing but respect for achievements like that. With that said, my hate for that team is now back on. To be honest, I am still more irritated at losing 20 straight games to that f*****g team. I wish they would never win another game...

Bills Rule with Rare Offense/Defense DVOA Combo https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2022/bills-rule-rare-offensedefense-dvoa-combo Current DVOA (Top 16)

Giving up 29 yards in 16 seconds to Mahomes isn't exactly a monumental defensive failure. Right before that, KC gave up 96 yards in 73 seconds for a TD. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are in their own class - and they do those kinds of things.

The Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes Cinematic Universe https://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2022/josh-allen-patrick-mahomes-cinematic-universe

So, all we need to do is put some ping pong tables in their locker room when we play them Week 15?

Wishing him a full recovery and a healthy life first - and all the best if/when he returns to the field.

Actually, what constitutes an assault is pretty well defined. We didn't have a girls field hockey team, so I had to settle for football, baseball, and wrestling.

A lot of us have and still don't assault people. Not surprising that your takaway from the incident is to blame the cameraman...

There is acting in an unbecoming way when you are frustrated or angry and then there is putting your hands on someone in an aggressive way when frustrated or angry. I'ts not a fine line...

His justification was that he was frustrated - as if it is normal behavior for most people to knock some stranger to the ground when they are frustrated. And, of course he had to add in that the other guy had some culpability in what happened because he ran in front of him... I'm thinking nothing could demonstrate that he "felt horrible immediately" better than walking right by the guy he just pushed to the ground...

Yeah, that aged well...

Yeah, it surprised me too. Particularly after the Ravens' last two games. It might change after tonight's game.