OldTimer1960

You are kind of overlooking that Diggs was nowhere near your definition of “elite” when he was drafted (in the 5th round). He wasn’t the route runner then that he is now. Same withe Cooper Kupp. I think your criteria are missing some things and, again, it is unrealistic to think that every first round pick will be elite. It is perfectly OK and a win to get “just” a good starter and every year there are guys who don’t pan out even from round 1.

Not meeting that definition of “elite” doesn’t rationally disqualify a player from being a 1st round pick - especially late in the first. It is unrealistic to think that every first round pick will become elite.

Given that they have manipulated almost every contract that they have to free up cap space, I am not keen on trading picks from next year, if we can avoid it. My view is that the Bills are unlikely to be able to sign any free agents next year and quite possibly will lose some important pieces to free agency next year, so the draft will be the only real way to acquire talent for backfilling losses or upgrading weaknesses. I am not completely against trading picks from next year, particularly if the idea is to get Gardner so that they can trade White to free up cap space. It does seem risky to me to be trading high picks from 2023.

But imagine what the D could do if they didn't have to hide a weak CB2 sitting in zone. They might be able to blitz more to get pressure on the QB if they had 2 corners that could be left on their own for 3 seconds or so.

Are you sure that you aren’t talking yourself into him? A lot of talent AND questions in my opinion. Is he in the conversation at 25? Maybe, based on test scores and Senior Bowl, but is he a better prospect than, say Booth, Elam, Gordon at CB or Smith, Green, Zion Johnson or prospects that could be available at other positions? Im not saying that he might not be good or even great, but he is not a sure thing (as no other prospects are, too many either. Still, can’t help but think his floor is lower than guys from major colleges. Is he better than George Pickens, for example? How about Jahan Dotson?

None of the higher rated WRs were at the Senior Bowl, so “best WR at the Senior Bowl” is nice, but doesn’t necessarily mean that he is a first round pick. Don’t get me wrong, I like what I have seen of him, he is a great athlete beyond just his 40 time and he has outstanding size, but drops and level of competition leave me wondering. Mid-2nd? Sure. Pick 25 with screaming need at corner, I would think risk and opportunity cost too high.

Agree.

I think you are overestimating the WR group (which is very good) and underestimating the top of the CB group. For example, Jameson Williams looked great last season, but is coming off a serious knee injury which might rob him of some of his speed (not saying it will, but it certainly could) and he really has only 1 year of production. Of course, none of this means that he won’t be very good, but it adds risk. Flip side, I’m not sure that Andrew Booth isn’t a comparable talent. I think that some are getting too enamored with the very fast 40 times that some WRs and some CBS put up. Speed is a great asset, but it isn’t true that just because someone can run fast in a straight line that they can therefore become a great WR, CB or RB “with coaching”.

I’m not ready to go that far regarding Smith, but from that list, he would have been my pick.

I didn’t say that he is not very good. I only said that his limited opportunities leave me as-yet cautious in anointing him as a great player. I’m not saying that what he has shown isn’t project able to good starting WR, only that it IS a projection at this point.

As much as I like what we have seen from Davis so far, I don’t think that 35 receptions in 2021 - even with 6 TDS and a high yards per catch average- qualifies as “already very good”. I am NOT saying that Davis won’t be good, only that he hasn’t had enough opportunity to show his true NFL ability. But, there are players who have shown well in limited time, but can’t maintain that when becoming a full-time starter.

I’m not really down on picking Walker here, but I’m not highly excited, either. I think he is a good, not great, RB prospect. He shows some patience and burst, good vision and some make-you-miss. I am not sure that I see a real game-changer when I watch him.

Highest upside means he isn’t ready to play yet - and may never be.

Do you think Smith could competently play RT in a pinch? The little that I have watched of him left me thinking that he is a G only in the NFL. I think he would get called for holding a lot if he played T.

His inexperience at the position and competition level might keep him out of the 2nd round, but his athletic ability and intelligence probably won’t let him fall much further than that. I don’t think that teams know how much he will be able to play on D as a rookie, but he should be good on special teams.

I like it. If they come out of the 1st 2 days with Booth and Watson, I will be ecstatic. I like Marcus Jones in that spot as well. Even if he never plays a down on D, worth it for special teams alone.

Is $218K the signing bonus or the full salary of a 6th rounder?

Fair point and Allen so far has been better than the major college players who went ahead of him. I like Dotson a lot. He seems like an exceptionally high floor/safe pick. Only question with him is size/strength - at worst I think he is a very good slot receiver who has great hands and very good speed. He is the kind of guy who has ability to turn those short crossers into long gains.

Man, that seems a little early to me for a guy from that level of competition. I can see the physical tools are there and I know that he showed well at the Senior Bowl. I also know that he didn’t have the best QB nor surrounding cast, but he is still a major projection to the NFL level to be considered at the end of round 1. I know that others are projecting him borderline 1st as well and I also know that there are many precedents for small school guys going in the fist, so maybe I am just being too conservative in this evaluation. It feels like Watson would be a consolation prize for failing to get Wilson, Olave, Burks, Williamson, etc.

I agree that OL / OG is still a need. While I liked some of what I saw from Spencer Brown, he was not a finished product. I would not be shocked if the Bills took an OT early - perhaps one who could play G. I will be a little surprised if they took an OG in round 1, but a T who can play G as well could be in play there. I don’t have as much confidence in Dane Jackson as some here. He *might* be an OK starter, but I think they need a backup plan in case he isn’t as good as some here think. For that reason, I think CB has a high probability of being their first pick.

Woolen is fast and big, for sure, but he doesn’t look very smooth/athletic changing directions - at least to me. Can he work on that? I guess yes, it is a skill to develop, but he doesn’t really look ready to play in the NFL to me. I do like that he seems to be a willing tackler.

I think you are right.

Good point, I forgot that they signed Shaq Lawson. I like him and think he is better than he showed past 2 years. He was a disappointment in Miami because they way overpaid and then I have no idea what happened last year. If he is in top condition, he can be a really solid player.

Of that group, I still think that Epenesa can be salvaged. I think he shows flashes. Between Epenesa and Basham, I think Epenesa has a slight edge, but don’t read that as I don’t like Basham. I think with Hughes and Addison out of the rotation we will see step ups by Rousseau, Epenesa and Basham.

I think Gordon is better than that 2nd tier. I don’t care about a 4.52 40, he is an athlete and much smoother than most of the guys who ran faster. In addition, he is big enough and good enough to be a positive in run defense. I’m no scout, so I won’t argue too strongly, but to my untrained eye (but 5 decades of watching the game) I like Gordon better than Elam.