
OldTimer1960
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Emmanuel Sanders co-hosting GMF 4/4
OldTimer1960 replied to Charles Romes's topic in The Stadium Wall
As much as I like what we have seen from Davis so far, I don’t think that 35 receptions in 2021 - even with 6 TDS and a high yards per catch average- qualifies as “already very good”. I am NOT saying that Davis won’t be good, only that he hasn’t had enough opportunity to show his true NFL ability. But, there are players who have shown well in limited time, but can’t maintain that when becoming a full-time starter. -
His inexperience at the position and competition level might keep him out of the 2nd round, but his athletic ability and intelligence probably won’t let him fall much further than that. I don’t think that teams know how much he will be able to play on D as a rookie, but he should be good on special teams.
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I like it. If they come out of the 1st 2 days with Booth and Watson, I will be ecstatic. I like Marcus Jones in that spot as well. Even if he never plays a down on D, worth it for special teams alone.
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Fair point and Allen so far has been better than the major college players who went ahead of him. I like Dotson a lot. He seems like an exceptionally high floor/safe pick. Only question with him is size/strength - at worst I think he is a very good slot receiver who has great hands and very good speed. He is the kind of guy who has ability to turn those short crossers into long gains.
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Man, that seems a little early to me for a guy from that level of competition. I can see the physical tools are there and I know that he showed well at the Senior Bowl. I also know that he didn’t have the best QB nor surrounding cast, but he is still a major projection to the NFL level to be considered at the end of round 1. I know that others are projecting him borderline 1st as well and I also know that there are many precedents for small school guys going in the fist, so maybe I am just being too conservative in this evaluation. It feels like Watson would be a consolation prize for failing to get Wilson, Olave, Burks, Williamson, etc.
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I agree that OL / OG is still a need. While I liked some of what I saw from Spencer Brown, he was not a finished product. I would not be shocked if the Bills took an OT early - perhaps one who could play G. I will be a little surprised if they took an OG in round 1, but a T who can play G as well could be in play there. I don’t have as much confidence in Dane Jackson as some here. He *might* be an OK starter, but I think they need a backup plan in case he isn’t as good as some here think. For that reason, I think CB has a high probability of being their first pick.
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Woolen is fast and big, for sure, but he doesn’t look very smooth/athletic changing directions - at least to me. Can he work on that? I guess yes, it is a skill to develop, but he doesn’t really look ready to play in the NFL to me. I do like that he seems to be a willing tackler.
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I think Gordon is better than that 2nd tier. I don’t care about a 4.52 40, he is an athlete and much smoother than most of the guys who ran faster. In addition, he is big enough and good enough to be a positive in run defense. I’m no scout, so I won’t argue too strongly, but to my untrained eye (but 5 decades of watching the game) I like Gordon better than Elam.
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Would take a King’s ransom to move up high enough to get Hamilton. I have no inside information, but I can’t imagine moving that far up for Hamilton. I can easily imagine that they would want to move up for a CB. Other needs are OL, but I don’t see moving up unless it is for a OT that would push Dawkins into G or if they aren’t happy with Spencer Brown starting at RT. Can’t see trading up far for a WR given team has 3 viable starters, though a need for next year or to push Gabe Davis out of the starting lineup (and I don’t think that is in the cards). With investment at DE, I don’t think they’d go up for that and I don’t see a LB as such a glaring need that they would trade up for that. I can’t even imagine going up for a RB because of position value, Singletary is fine and because Breece Hall is the top RB in THIS draft, but would not have been a top RB in past few classes.
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Diggs was, I believe, a 5th rounder and Cooper Kupp was 3rd round. Lots of good starting WR have come beyond to me 1. Doesn’t mean to stay away from ok WR in round 1, but very good receivers have been found after round round as well.
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I think that Dotson would be a fine pick, but he is probably only going to play out of the slot in the NFL with his smaller stature.
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Really nice observation. Team’s try to copy successful models or counter those models. One example was way back when the league had been moving to larger DBs and Washington went the other way and got small, quick fast “Smurf” receivers that the bigger DBs struggled to stay with. As you pointed out, Tenn, Indy and now NE have moved to run-heavy offenses with two TEs. That counters, to some degree, the smaller faster pass rush specialists that teams have loaded up on to compete with the high flying pass offenses. By running clock, they keep the ball away from the opponent.
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Favorite and least favorite draft analysts
OldTimer1960 replied to Ethan in Cleveland's topic in The Stadium Wall
I favor Daniel Jeremiah Bucky Brooks Ourlads Draft Guide Used to love GM Jr, forget his name, but he worked as a scout in the NFL and did a stint with a CFL team, too. Forgot Kiper - he is OK, but I don’t think he puts in as much time now that he does college games and ESPN stuff. -
Well that is true for sure!
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And if he doesn’t heal as fast as you suggest, then what? I am only saying prepare as if he will miss time, because that is a real possibility. The team doesn’t have an established starter opposite White, so even if White is ready to go, a highly drafted rookie can compete with Jackson for the other spot. No other position on the team appears as weak as CB. OG is a weakness, too, but at least they have Bates back to start unless they find a player who is better. But, OL is a “play together” position where player deficiencies can be covered up a bit. CBs are really exposed to 1-1 matchups and can easily be targeted by the opposition. I understand that WR isn’t super deep on this roster as well and a good reinforcement would be welcomed there, but there at least they have a clear top 3 (Diggs, Crowder, Davis) and could survive if McKenzie were pressed into the starting lineup. I *hope* that they address CB before the draft, leaving the possibility of taking a WR or OT/OG early if the value warrants it, but as of today, I think they need to lean CB, unless there is nobody remotely close to a good prospect there. Agree, I don’t want them to reach for a need, but teams do reach in some ways on many picks - they all say they take BPA, but need and scheme fit must play into their rankings somehow.
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Wait, you dismiss Gordon as being slow, but he is faster than Dane Jackson who you claim is capable of being a really good corner? I’m not saying that Jackson might not be the answer, but I don’t think we should just pencil him in as the answer, either. Even if Jackson is good enough to be the starter opposite White, they still need to have someone competent to start until White is healthy - perhaps the first month or two of the season.
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If Diggs, Crowder and Davis are the starting WRs and McKenzie is the ”gadget guy”, any improvement from a rookie (this year) would be taking opportunities from those players. An investment at CB in the first. Is not only (an attempt at) filling a gaping hole, but likely a big step up in mid-term over last year’s starter (Levi Wallace) and the guy who was Wallace’s backup (Dane Jackson). The only other position where a first round rookie might provide as big an improvement over last year is at OG. But, OG is a position that works in coordination with the rest of the OL while CB is a position where they have high rate of 1on1 responsibility. Bad play by WR is an incomplete pass, by an OL it is a sack with risk of injury to the most important player (Allen), bad play by a CB is possibly a TD given up or an easy first down that allows another 3 downs for the opponent.
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Are you arguing that it is a passing league and everyone is stacking their receiving corps with great athletes, so best to leave below NFL average athletes oat CB trying to cover them?