OldTimer1960

Not at all like flipping a coin. Flipping a coin 32 time and trying to predict the order of heads and tails would be closer, but easier.

Moving down from 25 to even 10th pick of round 2 would only net maybe a 3rd.

I would prefer to avoid RB before the 3rd at the earliest this year. I’d rather Spiller or Walker later than Breece Hall early. I think 1st -3rd should give priority to CB, WR, OT, OG, TE before I would think about a RB.

What I think many are saying is: 1. The Bills have a gaping hole at CB and it is quite possible that White will miss part of the season. If White misses the first part of the season, the will be counting on a rookie or Cam Lewis to start opposite Dane Jackson (whom I know that you think the Bills love, but many of us are not convinced yet) 2. There are some very good CB prospects in round 1, after that there is a drop off leaves you with either “toolsey” raw prospects (Woolen, McCollum) or guys with not the best physical traits like Emerson, McCreary). 3. If they go with the raw athlete, that player is not starting early and then Cam Lewis is the starter with Jackson on a team that expects to go deep into the playoffs. If they go with someone like Emerson, he might be able to beat out Lewis, but is he athletic enough to really be a long-term answer? 4. If they sign a veteran FA (how they squeeze the cap room is the question), then, of course, the urgency is reduced and I could see waiting to the 2nd to bet on a raw player with top athleticism. 5. I guess it is also possible that they could make a trade for a corner, but again cap room is a problem in this scenario. I think that if they go into the draft without having acquired a veteran corner it will be a risky scenario to not find a corner who is capable of starting early in the season and/or challenge Dane Jackson for the spot opposite White.

The argument that they “developed” Wallace and/or Jackson is marginal. Did they “develop” or did they play because they didn’t have better options. Even if you stand on your point, then you can equally say that Diggs (5th), Davis (4th) and Crowder (4th) were “developed “.

I think Emerson will go earlier than 5th, but most reports I’ve seen have similar criticisms of his speed and quickness and that is a big concern at CB.

I think the only ways that Moore will end up as a Bill is if they trade back out of the first or if he is available at or near pick 57. I can’t see a big move up in the 2nd - the Bills’ “draft capital” is not strong. Anyway, if they like him and he ends up on the team, I’d be fine with it (not that the Bills should care what I think), but I don’t see a star in the making when I watch him.

I’m not opposed to a good OL in the first, but generally you want a T in the 1st not G. I don’t think that any of the top OTs will be around at 25. Would you stretch for Tyler Smith who can play G and then maybe challenge Spencer Brown next year? Do you take Green or Johnson? Greek played some T in college (I think), but he doesn’t look to me like he is capable of doing that in the NFL.

4.41 is a great time and I’m not a scout, but he doesn’t LOOK that fast on film - even against low level competition. More concerning to me is that he doesn’t look super quick either. For sure, NFL scouts are more qualified to assess him as a prospect than I am.

You might be right, but I’m not buying. Allen gives this team a fighting chance every year for the next 7+ years. I don’t want to throw that away for a low probability to win a SB this year.

No thank you. Don’t need to extend credit card debt for the next two years. It would be terrible to have Josh Allen, not win next year and get progressively worse because we mortgaged those draft choices to go “all in” this year. No matter how you slice it, you get to the playoffs and you are lucky to have a 60% chance to win each game against the playoff teams in the stacked AFC. At best you get a first round bye and then have to win 3 straight against very good opponents. At 60% win probability in each game, the chance to win SB is .6x.6x.6= 22% chance to win it all. Now, factor in a major injury this year - do you want to go into ‘23 likely losing starting TE and starting MLB and not have first round picks for the next two years? At that point, you might as well trade Allen for all that you can get, because you’ll have no cap space, lose major contributors and have no top draft picks. I favor the long view - Allen is young and gives you a chance every year for the next 6-7 years if you put decent talent around him.

I don’t understand the hype with Moore. He doesn’t look exceptionally quick when I watch him and while he is pretty thick and has good timed speed, he doesn’t look (to me) like he is blazing fast.

I just don’t think any of these RBs, including Hall and Walker are really “special” prospects. I would not touch either in the first and I would really have to not like any players at other positions left at 57 to take one of the RBs.

Costs a lot to go from Bills’ pick to top of round 2. Their 2nd + 3rd + 4th does not likely get them to the top of the 2nd. That might get you to about pick 38.

I just flat disagree. Every year there are 32 first round picks, if there are not 32 players who fit your definition of “elite”, teams just go with who they think are the best available.

You are kind of overlooking that Diggs was nowhere near your definition of “elite” when he was drafted (in the 5th round). He wasn’t the route runner then that he is now. Same withe Cooper Kupp. I think your criteria are missing some things and, again, it is unrealistic to think that every first round pick will be elite. It is perfectly OK and a win to get “just” a good starter and every year there are guys who don’t pan out even from round 1.

Not meeting that definition of “elite” doesn’t rationally disqualify a player from being a 1st round pick - especially late in the first. It is unrealistic to think that every first round pick will become elite.

Given that they have manipulated almost every contract that they have to free up cap space, I am not keen on trading picks from next year, if we can avoid it. My view is that the Bills are unlikely to be able to sign any free agents next year and quite possibly will lose some important pieces to free agency next year, so the draft will be the only real way to acquire talent for backfilling losses or upgrading weaknesses. I am not completely against trading picks from next year, particularly if the idea is to get Gardner so that they can trade White to free up cap space. It does seem risky to me to be trading high picks from 2023.

But imagine what the D could do if they didn't have to hide a weak CB2 sitting in zone. They might be able to blitz more to get pressure on the QB if they had 2 corners that could be left on their own for 3 seconds or so.

Are you sure that you aren’t talking yourself into him? A lot of talent AND questions in my opinion. Is he in the conversation at 25? Maybe, based on test scores and Senior Bowl, but is he a better prospect than, say Booth, Elam, Gordon at CB or Smith, Green, Zion Johnson or prospects that could be available at other positions? Im not saying that he might not be good or even great, but he is not a sure thing (as no other prospects are, too many either. Still, can’t help but think his floor is lower than guys from major colleges. Is he better than George Pickens, for example? How about Jahan Dotson?

None of the higher rated WRs were at the Senior Bowl, so “best WR at the Senior Bowl” is nice, but doesn’t necessarily mean that he is a first round pick. Don’t get me wrong, I like what I have seen of him, he is a great athlete beyond just his 40 time and he has outstanding size, but drops and level of competition leave me wondering. Mid-2nd? Sure. Pick 25 with screaming need at corner, I would think risk and opportunity cost too high.

Agree.

I think you are overestimating the WR group (which is very good) and underestimating the top of the CB group. For example, Jameson Williams looked great last season, but is coming off a serious knee injury which might rob him of some of his speed (not saying it will, but it certainly could) and he really has only 1 year of production. Of course, none of this means that he won’t be very good, but it adds risk. Flip side, I’m not sure that Andrew Booth isn’t a comparable talent. I think that some are getting too enamored with the very fast 40 times that some WRs and some CBS put up. Speed is a great asset, but it isn’t true that just because someone can run fast in a straight line that they can therefore become a great WR, CB or RB “with coaching”.

I’m not ready to go that far regarding Smith, but from that list, he would have been my pick.

I didn’t say that he is not very good. I only said that his limited opportunities leave me as-yet cautious in anointing him as a great player. I’m not saying that what he has shown isn’t project able to good starting WR, only that it IS a projection at this point.