OldTimer1960

I think the Bills are looking at him as a possible 2nd round pick. It would not surprise me if he were available then. I know the arguments about how productive he was in the SEC - and that is very important. However, 4.95 in the 40 for a 6'2" 242 lb OLB who you are going to ask to rush the passer in the 3-4 is a big red flag for early in round 1. Yes, he might be productive in the NFL in spite of his speed, but then again he might not. I think it is too big of a risk for a high round 1 pick (just my $.02 worth) and I think many teams will feel the same way. I know about Terrell Suggs, but he was nearly 2" and 20 lbs heavier. In round 2, I would think the risk/reward given his productivity, would be in favor of taking him. This is similar to a highly productive college WR running a 4.7 40. Now, I know of at least one exception in that regard (Anquan Boldin), but the majority don't pan out in the NFL.

If you follow enough drafts, this is far more common than you might expect. It isn't just the "dumb Bills" who miss on early draft picks and it isn't just the "dumb" team, either. All teams miss on early picks, just ask the Broncos how happy they are that they traded back into round 1 for TIm Tebow.

THANK YOU. You are right on. The exception does not disprove a general rule.

I do not understand the aversion to corners by some on this board. Corner is a very important position, especially in the current pass-happy NFL. I understand that it appears that they misfired on Aaron Williams, but I wouldn't give up on him yet as he might be a better player at safety. Beyond that, they have drafted Stephon Gilmore in the first recently, but not a lot of other corners high in the recent past.

What is the definition of a franchise QB? Is it someone from this draft who be given a couple years as a starter, but fail to prove himself (as it looks like Blaine Gabbert is doing)? Is it someone who is an adequate middle of the NFL starter for 5 or more years? (Think someone like Matt Hasselback in his prime) Or is it that rare QB who starts for 5+ years and you are not thinking about trying to find someone better (ex: Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers...)

Relax man, nobody is attacking you. I was simply saying that just picking a QB in round 1 is not sufficient to become a good team. There are bad teams with good QBs and as you point out, there are very few good teams that don't have good QBs. You have to pick a good QB and my only disagreement with your post is that I think you need to look critically at the QB prospects rather than "just taking a shot" on one every year until you get it right. I could even buy into that philosophy, but with later picks. First round picks are very valuable. An argument can be made that you should stretch the value argument to slant towards the QB position, but that doesn't mean that you should take a QB early if you don't think they have a good chance of becoming a good starter. By all means, if the Bills think there is a QB that is likely to be a good or better starter in the NFL, I think they should take that guy at 8.

thanks for checking in ` skies are always very gray here. What would you propose they do, if you don't like what they could have done and won't like what they will do?

Luke Jockel/ Eric Fisher/ Lane Johnson - Buddy has never drafted offensive line in the first round. The highest was last year when Cordy Glenn was drafted. The Bills and especially Buddy seem to like Glenn a lot at LT besides the fact that moving him to guard as some suggested would basically make Glenn a bust for a GM who is on his way out and trying to save his legacy. ==> Nobody said that you have to move Glenn to OG if you draft Lane Johnson. I'd consider Johnson for LT and move Cordy to RT - then you have two potentially very good OTs and Wood at Center. Fill in with some half-decent OGs and you have a good OL to pass protect, and pave the way for a run-oriented OL. I'd be less interested in Warmack at OG since that still leaves marginal Erik Pears starting at RT.

I think that NE did. I could also argue that NO and Seattle did. Possibly SF, too with Kaepernick in round 2. And it is too early to conclude whether Nawrocki was right or wrong. Nawrocki was not alone in his criticism of Newton. Maybe Cam will be a long-term star, maybe not. That does not mean that Nawrocki's evaluation was inaccurate. I didn't read in there that Newton had no chance of becoming a star QB. I only read that there were some big concerns that might prevent him from doing so.

Yep, and I don't have much of a quarrel with picking them in round 3. I was mainly commenting on over-drafting a QB in rnd 1 or 2.

Not saying to not draft a QB, but rather pick one commensurate with the probability of success. In fact, I would be on-board with drafting one every year until you find one - just not "reaching" every year until you find one. The best QBs in the league seem to fall into four categories: 1. No brainers: Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers. RG3, Andrew Luck... 2, Got lucky early: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees (round 2), Russell Wilson ( round 3), Colin Kaepernick (Rnd 3), Andy Dalton (rnd 2) 3. Got lucky later: Tony Romo (undrafted), Matt Schaub (rnd 3), 4. Spent high picks and still struggling: Philly (Vick and Foles), Minn (Ponder in spite of Adrian Peterson), Chic (Jay Cutler), Det (Matt Stafford), Carolina (Cam Newton), TB (Josh Freeman), Stl: Sam Bradford), Miami (Tannehill), Jets (Sanchez), Cleveland (Weedon), Tenn (Locker), Jax (Gabbert), Oak (Palmer) Takeaways: 1. Most good QBs are drafted early, but sometimes blind luck strikes and that team is set for a long time. 2. It is definitely not sufficient to just draft a QB early in order to turn a bad team around. 3. Having a highly regarded QB is not sufficient to be a very good team. 4. Not having a good QB does relegate a team to struggle.

Let's look at the "currently successful teams" and then all teams: Washington: won the NFC East with a rookie whom almost unanimously was rated very high. GB: awesome with a QB drafted 20+ spots after Alex Smith. No one can tell me that none of the teams between 1 and GB didn't need a QB, but clearly GB's pick was substantial ATL: won NFC NFC South with highly drafted QB Matt Ryan (who many said was a "reach") SF: won NFC West with 2nd round QB NE: still riding the Tom Brady "lucky pick" in the 6th round. Baltimore: Flacco was good, but not great in Super Bowl season. He was a #1 pick. Houston: won AFC South with 3rd round pick (traded for) Matt Schaub. Questionable whether they won because of or in spite of Schaub. Denver: won AFC West with Peyton Manning, but spent #1 pick on Tim Tebow 2 years ago and 2nd on Brock Osweiller last year. Now for the "other teams" Giants: 9-7 with Eli Manning - an "elite" QB drafted #1 overall. Dallas: one game worse (8-8) with undrafted Tony Romo Philly: 4-12 with #1 draft pick Michael Vick Minnesota: 10-6 with the best rushing attack in the last decade and Christian Ponder who was drafted early round 1 (but didn't produce much) Chicago: 10-6 with Jay Cutler (#1 pick acquired via trade) Det: 4-12 with #1 pick Matt Stafford Carolina: 7-9 with #1 overall pick Cam Newton NO: 7-9 with Superstar Drew Brees TB: 7-9 with #1 pick Josh Freeman Seattle: 11-5 with 3rd round pick Russell Wilson (while high priced FA Matt Flynn sat and trade acquisition Charlie Whitehurst was gone) Stl: 7-8-1 with #1 pick Sam Bradford Arizona: 5-11 with Kolb/Skelton running for their lives Miami: 7-9 with #1 pick Ryan Tannehill Jets: 6-10 with #1 pick Mark Sanchez Buffalo: 6-10 with undrafted FA Ryan Fitzpatrick Cinci: 10-6 with #2 pick Andy Dalton Pitt: 8-8 with #1 pick Ben Roethlisberger Cleveland: 5-11 with #1 Brandon Weedon and #3 Colt McCoy Indy: 11-5 with #1 overall Andrew Luck Tenn: 6-10 with #1 pick Jake Locker Jax: 2-14 with #1 pick Blaine Gabbert SD: 7-9 with #1 pick Philip Rivers Oak: 4-12 with #1 pick Carson Palmer KC: 2-14 with very late pick Matt Cassell Conclusions (mine): 1. MOST good QBs are drafted in round 1. 2. A round 1 QB is not sufficient to be a good team 2a. 22 of 32 teams had a former #1 QB starting, yet many of those teams were not very good. It is not sufficient to wish/hope/pray that a highly drafted QB will turn around a struggling franchise. Even some very very promising young QBs (Cam Newton for example) are not "winning" without decent support from their teammates. It is at least debatable whether any of the QBs in this draft will ever be good enough at the NFL level to elevate an otherwise weak team to the playoffs.

Both have cannon arms and need a "little" coaching - just as JP Losman did. If it was as simple as finding a guy with a strong arm and just "coaching him up", then every team would have a great QB. Go ask teams what they think of Derek Anderson.

I am certain that Profootballweekly had some good things to say about Smith. They are one of the good (IMHO) draft information sources as they have a lot of connections with NFL teams. I would not be at all surprised if Smith is not the first QB drafter (or even the 2nd).

Unfortunately, that is what you will get (a highly drafted rookie who becomes a journeyman) in this draft. The view that the Bills must take a QB in round 1 or 2 is the same view of the "horney husband" hoping that some rookie in a bad class will be better than whomever is available already in the NFL.

Love the signing, not because Kolb is a likely long-term starter, but because he may not be any worse than any QB in this draft. Kolb, with a decent OL and running game could be serviceable. Draft the Lane Johnson at OLT and move Cordy Glenn to RT, move Chris Hairston to Levitre's spot and feed Spiller, Jackson the ball. When you do have to pass, Kolb will get pretty good protection with Johnson at LT and Glenn at RT with Wood in the middle.

I completely agree with the argument that if a team thinks a QB has a good chance to be very good in the NFL, then they should take him in round 1, regardless of the point in round 1. That is, if the Bills think any of these QBs have a good chance to be a good or better starter, then that should not hesitate taking them at #8. I fully agree that with the exception of recent examples Dalton, Kaepernick and Wilson, that it is very rare to find a very good starting QB outside of round 1. However, I think that teams need to be very cautious to not over-draft a QB into the first round due to desperate need. I try to be optimistic, too. But I think the logical explanation for not resigning David Nelson is that he is still very injured. As far as I know, no other team has swooped in and signed him, either. I think that is evidence that his injury is what is keeping teams away (he was pretty productive before being injured).

I think that the combination of Jones' medical concerns and his very concerning 4.9+ 40 yard dash drops him out of the top 15. Now, I know that there are some good LBs playing in the NFL who ran poor 40 times, including Terrell Suggs, but for a guy who is not THAT big and is supposed to be a pass rusher first and foremost, his speed (or lack thereof) is a big red flag in the top 10. Sure, I'd take Terrell Suggs' career at #8 this year, but can you really bet the farm on that? Suggs is almost 20 lbs larger than Jarvis Jones.

I like this very much. I think Dion Jordan would be a great pick and Robert Woods would be awesome in the 2nd. I am not as high on Scott as others, but couldn't quibble with him in round 3

No doubt that it is His job to identify a great QB, but I still think it is VERY underrated how hard it is to find/evaluate these guys. For one example, look back a few years when Alex Smith went #1 overall and Aaron Rodgers lasted into the 20s. Certainly there were teams between 1 and GB had need for a QB and yet they missed on him. Also, in a QB-starved league, how could it be that Tom Brady was a 6th round pick and Colin Kaepernick lasted till round two and Russell Wilson round 3? Some believe it was great talent evaluation on NE's, SF's and Seattle's part. Truth (in my view) is they lucked out. I don't think anyone can say that there wer not MANY other teams that needed QBs those years, but yet no other team took those guys even when they had the chance to.

i agree that the rest of the OL is in tact, but I didn't think they were that good last year. I believe that for all of his shortcomings, Fitz was good at making quick throws which (I believe) masked some pass protection deficiencies. No doubt, I think that there may be bigger needs, but a 2nd top level tackle could help the run game and provide very good pass protection - both of which help whomever plays QB. Heck, given my lack of confidence in the rookie QB crop, I could see value in Lane Johnson in the first and their favorite WR or TE in the second. I recognize that is just my opinion and also know that doesn't help the defense. As a radical idea, I could also advocate for Star Lotulelei in round 1, if available. He could play NT w Dareus and Kyle Williams at end and Mario Williams playing rush LB

I think it would be tough to pick a TE that high unless he was the 2nd coming of Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzales. I am leery of Patterson's one year of production that high in the draft and think there will still be WR help available in round 2 & 3. I prefer Lane Johnson, Dion Jordan or Dee Milliner, if available. That isn't to say that Eifert and Patterson are not very good prospects, I'd just prefer some of the other prospects.

If they do not draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd, rest assured it is because they didn't like anyone that was available. The worst that could happen taking one early this year and next is definitely not that you could end up with two good ones. It is that you could still wind up with no good ones and nothing to show for two high picks. Of course picks at other positions can be missed on too, but I am certain that if they think any QB available has a reasonable chance of being good, they will nab one. If they don't take one early, it is safe to say that they didn't like any of the ones available at their picks

My opinion: I would shy away from Patterson because I think that you can find less risky players (ie, >1 year of productivity) at other positions of need at the 8th pick and because there seems to be good WR talent into rounds 2 and 3. I like EJ Manuel in round 2 and would love to get Justin Pugh in round 3, but I suspect both will be gone before our pick in those rounds.

You are assuming that the Bills (and other NFL teams) think any of these QBs is better than Alex Smith, Kevin Kolb, Matt Flynn etc. I think teams are showing their view with the acquisitions of these veteran QBs. There are QBs who have at least the physical skills to be better than that group, but it seems NFL teams in need of QBs don't think that the probability of success for any of the rookie prospects is very high.