OldTimer1960

In fairness, Evans has to lift each rep a bit further (both up and down)

Given that there are LBs that run 4.6-4.65 and are 6'3"+, I am not seeing the mismatch. Throw-in that he didn't dominate scoring in 3 years in college and I don't see Ebron as a great value at 9. Still, I see him worth the 15-20th pick.

This HAS been the "market value" - and teams used to draft a pass rusher to play RDE (opposite LOT). However, teams are now looking for good/great pass rushers at both RDE and LDE. That elevates the value of ROT. If you don't believe me, check out what Doug Whaley said in the pre-draft press conference.

I agree that part of the draft process is projecting how a collegiate player will do in the NFL and how much (if any) that player will improve over a few NFL seasons. Your example of Tebow was a very good one - he was a highly productive collegiate player, but he had/has a glaring weakness (poor passing skills) that was fatal at the NFL level. However, I think that a player who did not demonstrate an ability to score TDs in college is a MUCH bigger projection if you are expecting him to not only be OK, but to be a significant red zone threat. Ebron only managed to score 3 tds this year. I understand the point that his QB could affect his production, but UNC QBs did throw 28 TD passes and Ebron caught just 3 of those (about 10%). That does not feel right for a top 10 pick, especially one you are counting on to help the offense score. By comparison Kelvin Benjamin scored 15 TDs THIS YEAR - nearly twice as many as Ebron's career total. Benjamin scored 10 TDs in his last 6 games - again, more than Ebron's 3 year total. To be totally clear, I am not completely against drafting Ebron, but I am just not seeing what makes him such a great prospect.

Point taken, but what is the value of using Ebron as a 6'4" WR who doesn't block if he doesn't score TDs in the red zone? The value of having a big receiver is (from what I understand) being able to throw it up to him in the congested area of the end zone and have him come down with it. Ebron has not demonstrated that he can consistently score TDs, so I don't think it matters at all that he is 6'4" and that Marqise Lee is 5'11".

Mathews is unlikely to be available at 9 and I'd be reluctant to trade up for him (or anyone else). To be clear, I'd love to have him playing the OT opposite Glenn, but I don't see him as being so good that they should trade up for him.

I don't think that Eifert was picked in the top 10, though - you can correct me if I am wrong.( think he went 21st, not 9th). I agree that there is some projection of how a player will do in the NFL in the evaluation process. However, to think that Ebron is going to go from scoring < 3 TDs per year in 3 college seasons to something much better than that in the NFL is a big stretch (IMHO). I compared Ebron to WRs because that is essentially what he is. He lined up in-line < 30% of the time this year (based on Rotoworld analysis).. That is more slot WR than TE, in my opinion. As for force-fitting a tall receiver into the Bills' pick, I think it would be a mistake. Good receivers come in all sizes and as many tall/big receivers fail as do the smaller receivers. In my opinion, it would be a big mistake to take a big receiver over a better average size receiver.

I don't see it that way. If none of the 3 OTs or Evans is available at 9, then I think they can get the same calibre player at 16 as they can 9. I don't think that Ebron is an elite prospect and one of Marqise Lee, Odell Beckham and Kelvin Benjamin will be available at 16. I could argue that any of the 3 are equal or better prospects than Ebron. I would root for Aaron Donald, but would think picking his is risky due to him being VERY undersized. He would do little, in my opinion, to help fix the Bills run D. CJ Mosley is the other higher end prospect that they might be passing on if they traded down to 16. I'd consider him at 9, but he doesn't do anything to help the under-manned offense.

I only see Evans as an impact player in the NFL (of the 3 you listed). Ebron *could* be, but is no sure thing and Donald is *very* undersized. He could be very good or he could get blown away against monster NFL OL. He is unlikely to solve the Bills' run D problem at any rate.

I hardly think that I am making stuff up. Please see my post up stream comparing Ebron's production to that of Marqise Lee. As for Davis, his first three NFL seasons looked like this: 20 catches 13.3 avg 3TD 52 catches 9.8 avg 4 TD 31 catches 11.5 avg 2 TD He HAS had two monster seasons where he scored 13 TD, but those 1st three seasons would have people here in Bflo calling for Ebron's head if he produced similarly. I will admit that Ebron's college stats compare pretty evenly with those of Davis. Question is, would you be happy to have Davis for the 9th pick in a deep draft? AND Couldn't you do better affecting your passing game with any of the top 5-6 WRs in this draft. I am not a big Kelvin Benjamin fan, but he looks to be a better prospect, to me, than does Ebron. Banjamin could be as much of a TE as Ebron. He has better height, better production (in terms of TDs) and is almost as heavy.

Russ Lande has been my favorite "draft guru" for the past several years. I respect that he has been a scout in the NFL and is now director of college scouting for the CFL's Montreal Allouettes. However, to me Ebron is all potential and little production. 8 TDS in 3 years for a top 10 receiving threat just isn't very impressive. Yes, as a very young player coming into the league, he looks to have upside, but for a top 10 pick, that upside better be huge and seems too big of a gambler to me. I'd rather take any of the top 3 OTs or WR Lee or Beckham. By contrast, Kelvin Benjamin is about the same size and scored 19 TDs in TWO years, 15 (nearly twice as many as Ebron's career total) just THIS year. BTW, Benjamin did this in the SAME conference that Ebron played in.

I strongly believe that Manziel will be available at the 9th pick - and I don't think the Bills should take him. Now, if Dallas wants to trade their 1st & 2nd for him, I'd be all for that.

Eric Ebron: 3 seasons 112 receptions 1805 yards 8 TDs Marquise Lee: 3 seasons 248 receptions 3655 yards 29 TDs They played comparable competition PAC 10 vs ACC. I don't see how Ebron is some great weapon who will change an offense. I think WR Lee is a better option for as a receiving weapon.

I don't disagree that they could use another DE, but (based on what I've read) is one of the weakest positions in this draft. If any of the draft ratings I've seen are reasonably accurate, then there almost certainly will be better players available at other positions in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I would not want them to pass on a better player just to get someone that played DE in college.

Ok, that does matter some, how much is hard to say. Gives him a bit of benefit of the doubt at least.

Good to see. I am not sold on Ebron, but I want to like him. My perception, admittedly based on little, is that he won't be the game changer in the NFL that he was in college. Honestly, as someone else pointed out, not sure 3 TDs his last collegiate season qualifies him as a great receiving threat at TE.

You could be right, but I don't see it. I think teams have similar concerns over Murray's size as they do with Bridgewater. Just my opinion, but I think Bridgewater will go before Murray.

It sounds like teams don't really like Teddy Bridgewater enough to take him in round 1. While he was an excellent college QB and he has the intangibles that you want in a QB, I was always concerned about his lack of size. He just doesn't look like a top NFL QB to me. However, I do think he is worthy of a 2nd round pick because he certainly overcame his size limitations in college, so given his intangibles he has a chance to succeed in the NFL in spite of his relatively slight (for the NFL) frame. While I still think that EJ Manuel has a good opportunity to become a good NFL starter, I wouldn't be opposed to considering Bridgewater in round 2. To be clear, I don't think there is a high probability that the Bills will pick him, but he might be in the conversation.

I'd be surprised if he gets past Miami's pick.

I would not be against taking Donald and I don't necessarily subscribe to the need for every player to fit a ht, wt, speed criteria. However, I don't see how Donald fits the current regime's "big wins in the NFL view".

But that difference isn't so big between top LT and top WR, is that right so far? So could you not have two LT caliber players (one plying the right side)? Isn't that very similar to having two top level WRs or two top CBs? Nobody thought the Jets were stupid when they had Cromartie and Revis. Who is saying Detroit would be stupid to draft another WR in round 1 to pair with Calvin Johnson? Now, to be clear, I am not so much int the camp arguing that the Bills should pick a RT at 9. I wouldn't draft a pure RT at 9, nor would I want a "number 2" WR or CB at that same spot. But, if getting another LT caliber OT or another "number 1" WR or CB, then by all means consider that strongly. Taking the no RT logic to the extreme, let's say a team gets their QB IN round 1 and lucks out and gets their LT in round two in year one of a rebuild. The next year they get their #1 WR and in year 3 they hit on a top DE and #1 CB. If those are the "premium" positions, it sounds like the argument is that they should trade out of round 1 in year 4 since they have their 1st round worthy positions filled.

True about Ward, but if the argument is true that S really isn't very important, I could argue "so what?" - someone has to be the Pro Bowl S. Looking back at the arguments about no RT is worth the 9th pick, this argument is not making sense (though I could be missing your point)....

I hope that you are right (or that I am wrong and Fuller really is a top 10 talent). To be clear, I am not opposed to further bolstering the defense, even as early as round 1. It is just that (from what I've read/ heard), none of the CBs except maybe Dennard are very top prospects. Even if Mike Evans is gone, I'd rather have Marquise Lee, Odell Bekham or Brandon Cooks than Fuller. Likewise, any of the 3 top OTs and maybe Zach Martin, too. I am not a big Ebron fan, but I'd gamble on him before Fuller. On D, Mack, Mosley, (possibly Barr), and Aaron Donald would be higher on my list. Even if they were to trade down 10 spots, I think that there would be better players than Fuller available (purely based on what I've read - I am not really qualified to do my own scouting).

I would be somewhat disappointed if the Bills selected Fuller at pick 9, though the highly respected Mike Mayock has him as the 2nd best CB in this draft. I have not seen anything that would suggest that Fuller would be one of the top 15-20 players in this year's draft and I don't see CB as an urgent need, so I am not seeing any way this would line up, unless he were available in round 2. Even still, I don't understand how you would project him to beat out Gilmore or mckelvin for playing time. While I freely acknowledge that the pros deserve the benefit of the doubt - esp after what looks like a very good draft last year, I would still be confused and under-whelmed with Fuller in round 1 (even in round 2)

Other than Byrd, I think your use of elite is a big stretch.