OldTimer1960

How do you know this? Based on everything I am reading/ hearing, Martin is going to be picked by the mid-teens. I think it is very unlikely that he will still be available "in the 20s".

He is certainly athletic and fast. I know that he is a good prospect, I just don't think he is a great prospect. I do worry about him not living up to his potential. I like the players who are described as ultra hard workers that are dedicated to being the best player that they can be and I haven't seen that written about Ebron.

I like the trade down option. I don't like the idea of Ebron. A no-block TE that hasn't demonstrated that he is a significant scoring threat in the red-zone is nothing more than a WR - and I prefer several WRs in this draft to Ebron in that capacity. If they pick Ebron, I'll hope that he pans out into a good offensive weapon, but I would rather let another team take that risk.

No player in this draft is single-handedly going to change the fortunes of the Bills (at least that will be available at 9). Without a costly trade up, the Bills will be picking from a pretty deep 2nd tier of players. It would be very nice if Mike Evans or Jake Mathews or even Lewan were available at the Bills' pick, but if not they can select from WR Beckham or Lee, OT Zack Martin, DT Aaron Donald, LB/DE Anthony Barr, LB Moseley, their pick of CBs or S or (not my favorite) TE Eric Ebron. All of these are good prospects, just a notch below the true top tier of Clowney, Watkins, Mack, Robinson, Mathews and Evans. Depending on the Bills' evaluation of these prospects, they might unfortunately have to go with a defender even though they need to help the offense. Still, a top defender to further strengthen the defense is nothing to be depressed about.

Beckham is a good player - you have to deal with it and pick someone if this scenario happens and in that scenario, Beckham is as good as most any player left. If you can trade down out of that spot, great - the next 5-7 guys are pretty equivalent in terms of talent - so that would make it hard to trade out of this pick. I would consider defense or even Zach Martin in this scenario, but Beckham wouldn't be a big stretch there.

Just my opinion, but: 1. Johnny Manziel - I like his competitveness and elusiveness and don't have a problem with his arm strength - he could be very good, but he'll have to drastically change his game in the NFL. Another poster said he lobs too many passes up for grabs - I agree and those bad decisions will kill him in the NFL. I am also concerned about his maturity - he is very young coming into the league - Russell Wilson by contrast was over-aged. 2. Eric Ebron - certainly has the athletic skills to be good and some of my favorite draft analysts really like him, but he is also very young, doesn't block much and hasn't shown that he is a red-zone threat with only 8 career TDs in 3 years. Without blocking, he is basically a big WR - while he has size, comparing him to WRs his speed isn't that great. I am no Kelvin Benjamin fan, but he scored more TDs in the last 5 GAMES this year than Ebron did in 3 YEARS. 3. Kelvin Benjamin - I just said he was productive scoring TDs, but he really had only 1 year of production - very young - allegedly told a coach who came to work him out that he was too tired to workout. 4. Teddy Bridgewater - no doubt was an outstanding college QB, but smallish size, not special arm strength and speed/elusiveness leave me wondering if he will be good in the NFL - rooting for him, but not betting on him. 5. Bradley Roby - recent arrest, average season this past year leave me cold on him. On the flip side, I think that Aaron Donald will be a bargain in the middle of the first as teams shy away early because he is undersized. I also think Marqise Lee is going to outplay his draft position. He was SO productive and dominant when healthy.

I don't know about Chrichton - what I've read sounds an awful lot like Chris Kelsay. Now to be clear, I always thought Kelsay was pretty good, but I know I was in the minority.

Who? I like Robert Woods a lot, but Lee was the alpha player at USC when they were both there. I think SJ13 is good, but not at Lee's level if Lee is healthy. Williams is a bigger WR - maybe not Mike Evans big, but big none-the-less. I like Marqise Goodwin very much, but at his size he is best as a 3rd/4th receiver that is the deep threat. I would be VERY leery of becoming fixated on getting a big WR like Evans/benjamin

I agree, Lee is dynamic when healthy. Him (or Beckham or Cooks) plus an extra second rounder would be great IMHO. I disagree with the idea that he isn't the type of player the Bills need. He is very good - hence fills a need. I don't care if he isn't 6''5" as long as he gets open often and catches well.

I don't understand the premise of your post. Are you saying that nfl.com's list represented true value and that 6 of their top 30 fell outside the first round that some teams got first round value in round 2?

Thank you. This irrational belief that rookie QBs (or any other position) should walk int the NFL and immediately be great is way too pervasive and, I believe, is fueled by the (far too many) sports talk hosts and reporters who love to have something to generate discussion. I don't know if EJ Manuel will be a good NFL QB in the long-run or not, but I am confident that he has at least a shot at becoming a good one. I think that being impatient and continuing to draft QBs high "until you find one" is not a recipe for success. Drafting a QB high every year pretty much guarantees that you won't find out much about any of them as there won't be enough opportunity for any of them to improve..

Yes, first round picks in 2099 and 3015

At the end of the day, the right answer (as best anyone can tell on draft day), this depends entirely on whether they thing who they can get in a trade up is better than who they think they can get by holding onto their current picks or with the picks they'd acquire by trading down. My $.02 worth is as follows: 1. If they think that Clowney is another Bruce Smith or Watkins is another Larry Fitzgerald, then trading up makes sense - even if it costs next year's #1. 2. If they think that staying put and grabbing Mike Evans/Eric Ebron would provide a significant upgrade in receiving options - AND they think they can get a good OT in round 2, then staying put makes sense in my mind. 3. If they think that trading back allows them to get 3 good starters at 3 of: WR/TE, OT, OG, DE, S, ILB then I think this would be the best option. IMHO, this draft should be about finding the best players possible regardless of position, but with a slight emphasis on offense. I do think that the OL would benefit from an upgrade at RT, but that depends on whether they think Pears can play better (was he hurt last year?) and whether any of the available players are any better. They really could use a dynamic receiving option to allow Woods, Goodwin, Johnson and Williams to play off of. Scott Chandler is an adequate receiver at TE, is Ebron much better? We all love Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans, but at what price and are they that much better than someone the Bills might be able to get in round 2 (Jason Mathews, Sefarian-Jenkins, Benjamin, Robinson, Lattimore, Landry, etc... I think that improving the pass blocking and run blocking in round 1 with a receiving option in round 2 would help EJ Manuel maximize his talent more than Watkins/Evans/Ebron would. Thoughts, dissenting opinions???

Damn! Thought this thread had something to do with electronic lingerie...

Thank you

In fairness, Evans has to lift each rep a bit further (both up and down)

Given that there are LBs that run 4.6-4.65 and are 6'3"+, I am not seeing the mismatch. Throw-in that he didn't dominate scoring in 3 years in college and I don't see Ebron as a great value at 9. Still, I see him worth the 15-20th pick.

This HAS been the "market value" - and teams used to draft a pass rusher to play RDE (opposite LOT). However, teams are now looking for good/great pass rushers at both RDE and LDE. That elevates the value of ROT. If you don't believe me, check out what Doug Whaley said in the pre-draft press conference.

I agree that part of the draft process is projecting how a collegiate player will do in the NFL and how much (if any) that player will improve over a few NFL seasons. Your example of Tebow was a very good one - he was a highly productive collegiate player, but he had/has a glaring weakness (poor passing skills) that was fatal at the NFL level. However, I think that a player who did not demonstrate an ability to score TDs in college is a MUCH bigger projection if you are expecting him to not only be OK, but to be a significant red zone threat. Ebron only managed to score 3 tds this year. I understand the point that his QB could affect his production, but UNC QBs did throw 28 TD passes and Ebron caught just 3 of those (about 10%). That does not feel right for a top 10 pick, especially one you are counting on to help the offense score. By comparison Kelvin Benjamin scored 15 TDs THIS YEAR - nearly twice as many as Ebron's career total. Benjamin scored 10 TDs in his last 6 games - again, more than Ebron's 3 year total. To be totally clear, I am not completely against drafting Ebron, but I am just not seeing what makes him such a great prospect.

Point taken, but what is the value of using Ebron as a 6'4" WR who doesn't block if he doesn't score TDs in the red zone? The value of having a big receiver is (from what I understand) being able to throw it up to him in the congested area of the end zone and have him come down with it. Ebron has not demonstrated that he can consistently score TDs, so I don't think it matters at all that he is 6'4" and that Marqise Lee is 5'11".

Mathews is unlikely to be available at 9 and I'd be reluctant to trade up for him (or anyone else). To be clear, I'd love to have him playing the OT opposite Glenn, but I don't see him as being so good that they should trade up for him.

I don't think that Eifert was picked in the top 10, though - you can correct me if I am wrong.( think he went 21st, not 9th). I agree that there is some projection of how a player will do in the NFL in the evaluation process. However, to think that Ebron is going to go from scoring < 3 TDs per year in 3 college seasons to something much better than that in the NFL is a big stretch (IMHO). I compared Ebron to WRs because that is essentially what he is. He lined up in-line < 30% of the time this year (based on Rotoworld analysis).. That is more slot WR than TE, in my opinion. As for force-fitting a tall receiver into the Bills' pick, I think it would be a mistake. Good receivers come in all sizes and as many tall/big receivers fail as do the smaller receivers. In my opinion, it would be a big mistake to take a big receiver over a better average size receiver.

I don't see it that way. If none of the 3 OTs or Evans is available at 9, then I think they can get the same calibre player at 16 as they can 9. I don't think that Ebron is an elite prospect and one of Marqise Lee, Odell Beckham and Kelvin Benjamin will be available at 16. I could argue that any of the 3 are equal or better prospects than Ebron. I would root for Aaron Donald, but would think picking his is risky due to him being VERY undersized. He would do little, in my opinion, to help fix the Bills run D. CJ Mosley is the other higher end prospect that they might be passing on if they traded down to 16. I'd consider him at 9, but he doesn't do anything to help the under-manned offense.

I only see Evans as an impact player in the NFL (of the 3 you listed). Ebron *could* be, but is no sure thing and Donald is *very* undersized. He could be very good or he could get blown away against monster NFL OL. He is unlikely to solve the Bills' run D problem at any rate.

I hardly think that I am making stuff up. Please see my post up stream comparing Ebron's production to that of Marqise Lee. As for Davis, his first three NFL seasons looked like this: 20 catches 13.3 avg 3TD 52 catches 9.8 avg 4 TD 31 catches 11.5 avg 2 TD He HAS had two monster seasons where he scored 13 TD, but those 1st three seasons would have people here in Bflo calling for Ebron's head if he produced similarly. I will admit that Ebron's college stats compare pretty evenly with those of Davis. Question is, would you be happy to have Davis for the 9th pick in a deep draft? AND Couldn't you do better affecting your passing game with any of the top 5-6 WRs in this draft. I am not a big Kelvin Benjamin fan, but he looks to be a better prospect, to me, than does Ebron. Banjamin could be as much of a TE as Ebron. He has better height, better production (in terms of TDs) and is almost as heavy.