BADOLBILZ

Yeah that sounds about right and probably what he ends up as. A solid player. But to be honest I thought JJ Watt was a 3-4 DE and was really surprised how early he was picked. Landon Jackson doesn't have any traits that make me say he CAN'T rush the passer at a high level. He just hasn't. I use the Watt comp because he had very low production in college as well. If Jackson tears it up at the combine he could bounce back into 1st round consideration. I doubt he will test as poorly as Epenesa did and have to change his body type etc..

Point is don't get caught up in statistical anomalies. For that, Mostert is a PRIME example. If Cook had the other numbers he produced in 2024 but only 2 TD's again.......like in 2023......then there is no conversation around paying him like a top RB right now. Look at what they really are. In Mostert's case he was an injury prone journeyman with ELITE speed. Cook has been a good to very good 2 down RB in his 3 years. He's not "elite" like some people have wishfully thrown around.

It's always true that RB's shouldn't be worth much in trade. But all it takes is one team. Prime All-Pro DHop for worn out RB David Johnson and a 2nd round pick actually happened. And that was before this "RB renaissance". It's apropos that LA Chargers get mentioned because Harbaugh would be a guy who might value a veteran RB like that.

Say it ain't so Junkarlo! https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43876552/yankees-giancarlo-stanton-elbows-uncertain-opening-day Cash needs to get one more bat so they have someone to fill in when Junk misses his 35-75 games and Bellinger and Dominguez miss their time. The obvious fit is Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals. He'd get 140+ starts between LF, RF and infield with the Yanks injury probabilities. If St. Louis would attach him to Arenado and send the 2 for next to nothing I'd do it. I can't understand why anyone would take Arenado and his $75M. Even half of that more than he's going to be worth over the next 3 seasons with his increasingly feeble bat. Whoever gets him is getting Yankees Josh Donaldson 2.0 in 2026-2027 so you hope to get a platoon season out of him and then dump his carcass. But if they got arbitration Donovan that would help make up for the lost value. They'll likely get $60M in value for 3 years of prime Donovan for like $15M in arb salaries so then you are basically just eating $30M taking on Arenado($75M-$45M). Hal don't want to pay that luxury tax though so probably gotta hope Oswaldo and Oswald step up.

Yeah there are a lot of explosive RB's in this draft. Treveyon Henderson might go right where Cook did in round 2 and he is probably a more polished player right now than Cook is after 3 years of seasoning. More explosive than Cook for damn sure and he can actually pick up a blitz like a champ.

You are shooting for upgrades over Cook. Which would be ideal but remember what Cook was when they selected him. He's become almost the opposite of what was expected. You don't NEED a 350 touch guy like Hampton or Judkins in this offense. I like Henderson a lot though. WAY more sophisticated prospect than Cook was. I am hoping Brashard Smith falls to the Bills in round 4. Hoping he runs like a 4.55 or something at Indy because he plays fast, sudden and instinctive. Always been a favorite of mine since he was at the U. 4 star WR but just couldn't beat out Xavier Restrepo for slot reps and wasn't big enough to play the boundary and the Canes always have 4 star RB's to feed so he didn't get much of a chance there. He's really natural at RB and a better prospect than Tyrone Tracy, IMO. He showed great ball security on 274 touches last year too so not as much of a projection as Tracy was so he should go much sooner.

Why are we "assured" that the Bills lose firepower in trading Cook? As I illustrated, Cook was just a top 20 producer in terms of rushing yards. What if they select a RB who can actually play all 3 downs in round 3? Might even find that in round 4 or 5. Cook would have been a day 3 pick in this loaded RB draft. In my estimation Cook went from a good 2 down RB whose production was inflated by scheme, OL quality and the particular QB he had in 2023 to a very good 2 down RB whose production was inflated by those things. He's not a great player. The Bills had to take him off the field on a lot of high leverage/passing downs to maximize his efficiency in 2024.

Individual-pay comes down to a players individual-ability to impact a game. Those guys are going to get paid disproportionately and because they are under-supplied they will likely continue to outpace the cap in general. That's why edge and island positions(like boundary WR) get paid and ultra dependent positions like RB's do not and should not. Brief fluctuations in how teams play offense or defense don't really change that. After a couple years of offense's fighting against the current league scoring in 2024 returned back to the perceived "high flying" 2021 levels that caused defense's to back off in the first place. The Bills have been one of those "prevent the deep ball at any cost" teams since McD got here. Years prior to the league shift. And what are we talking about here? Changing it up defensively. So I wouldn't bet the house on the entire league going with one style of defense again........that was the anomaly, IMO. Maybe passing yards per game topped out in 2020-2021 but it will bounce back.

You can't really quantify "toughest". 117 straight starts and 5 straight 40 TD seasons. 5 straight division titles. Those are the kind of things you can quantify. The main reason the Bills and Chiefs are always deep in the playoffs is because they can consistently reproduce their results. Nobody else is anywhere near as consistent. And a lot of that is projectable. For instance, we know right now that unless one of them gets traded one of Lamar and Joe Burrow will AT BEST be playing on the road in the WC round.

Yeah that's not really how it worked though. They re-worked his 2024 deal to lower that cap hit. It was then a deal that would potentially pay him 3 years $25.5M. They can cut him after 2025 and the total paid will be $16M for 2 years. So $8M aav. And that is the likely result rather than pay him $9.5M in 2026.

You are just undermining your attempted point when talking about your year-long fluctuations of opinion. You aren't likely to know much better after free agency and the draft.......it just feels that way. I mean MOST free agency signings fail and 1st rounders typically hit at just under a 50% rate.......but you think knowing which teams get which player then is really going to clarify things? Again, if you have one of the truly elite, durable QB's and consistently win and aren't aging out and consistently rank among the less injured teams(contrary to some Bills fans feels) and don't have to do a lot of business in "fail agency" then you are probably one of the best bets. Those are things we know right now.

I kinda' expect it. And watch the verbiage he will choose. Beane will be like "we had an extra second rounder".

I still remember @PromoTheRobot trying to post updates on how terrible Peters was several All Pro seasons after he was traded. The sourest grapes ever.

Me too but I'd say a lot of things didn't go like the Texans planned. And Mixon got $8.5M not $10M as you claimed. And those discrepancies aside......when players reach free agency they get paid based on their past production.............not how the team plans to use them. $8.5M was the cost of doing business and is a far cry from $15M or even $12M when it comes to RB contracts.

Yeah, that's the fallacy. You think you will know better but in reality you won't. You wouldn't know that a Zack Baun will become an NFLDPOY after signing for peanuts. You won't know that a rag tag looking bunch of acquisitions and a rookie QB will lead the Commanches to the NFCCG. The Vikings win 14 games? C'mon even in the preseason people thought they'd have a losing record. You won't know that the Niners will fall apart early and the Lions fall apart late. Most observers didn't think the Bills would be anywhere near as good as they were. The reality is that a bunch of the really good, consistently good, elite QB'd teams are going to finish near the top. The Bills are one of those. So as futile as the exercise is........I like where they start the offseason and doubt that will change much for the worse given their track record and the variables we know of.

C'mon now, Mixon was not just a 2 down guy and he didn't get $10M aav. He was coming off 110 grabs the prior 2 seasons when he signed that deal. If Cook would take that same 3 year extension at $25.5M then I think Beane would probably be all over that whether the contractually obligated Cook has the leverage to pull it off or whether anyone likes it or not. As for Mixon outperforming Cook, that is largely irrelevant because the deal was for what he had been doing. Which was putting up 300+ touch seasons and bringing a physical element to the game on any down.

As much as I hate to see it.......I can see it. And in fairness, Beane's day 2 RB picks haven't been among his worst day 2 picks. Treveyon Henderson would be a particularly fun player and significantly more talented(and a true 3 down back) than Cook. Beane's work in round 2 is on par with what has been 60 years of bad drafting in round 2 for the Bills. Likely having 2 of them again this year.......it might be time to trade them. He can't seem to handle the psychology of round 2. He just picks too needy, IMO. But if you are going to be needy RB's are pretty easy projections and tend to provide better value than RB's picked between pick 11-32. So at least there is that.

If all that it is about is touches you can try to squeeze those numbers in and pretend they equate. But someone has to pick up those blitzes on obvious passing downs that Cook cannot........and it has to be an equally dynamic option when he gets the ball OTHERWISE Cook's lack of ability in that regard becomes liability in his ledger. That's why their snap counts are so much closer than people realize and why Cook is not nearly as valuable as his efficiency on early downs may suggest. That's where a GM has to be smart and not pay a 2 down player 3 down money. When you factor in the gravity/importance of of 3rd downs with their overall 40/60 snap share of 800 snaps......... then why wouldn't Ty Johnson be worth AT LEAST half of what Cook is? I think Cook with his current $5.5M hit and Johnson at a projected $2.5M represent a fair distribution. Cook would get much more on the open market.......which he's not entitled too yet.......simply because he's proven he can handle bulk use. But when you start comparing his bulk use to that of players like Saquon making $12M the value isn't even close.

Do you think you will know more about how it will shake out later in the offseason? Or in the preseason? Other than some additional knowledge key injury issues.......which can still happen at ANY time....you probably won't. Remember when the Ravens were the #1 seed and then added Derrick Henry? They subsequently had a worse record and didn't advance as far. The teams that appear to make more moves or bigger moves won't necessarily come out on top either so you have to take the offseason with a grain like anything else. The Chiefs won a SB after subtracting their best offensive skill player. You could argue that the Bills got better doing the same after subtracting Diggs and like 5 of their captains. Chiefs and Bills made far lesser moves in the offseason than Baltimore and Houston and still sent those teams packing in the divisional round.

Is someone making you come to TBD and open threads about getting the #1 seed? See my message to Beast. Your speculation the day before the opener would have no more validity than making it does today. The preseason favorite the day before regular season kickoff has gone on to win like 2 of the last 20 SB's or something. It's all just entertainment.

Thinking anything you discuss on a message board has anything other than entertainment value is foolish. And here you are thinking that.

Well then, be more specific. Do you mean a team like the Chiefs who has more key free agents hitting the market than Buffalo and already glaring holes at both tackle spots? Or the Ravens with their franchise LT scheduled to hit free agency, Derrick Henry at age 31 and Lamar Jackson having had 2 recent seasons end prematurely due to ankle injuries in his career? Cincinnati with Higgins a free agent and Hendrickson perhaps having to be traded to create room to retain Chase? Of course, things can change. But they can change at any moment of the season as well. We can deal in the known. The Bills don't have much hitting free agency. They should return their entire OL intact. The players in danger of aging out on the Bills roster already largely figure to hold smaller roles next year should they even be retained. Their QB is not only coming off his best year but is the most durable in the NFL. I mean, there is a very realistic scenario where the Bills do nothing in free agency, just draft where they currently stand and still win the AFC next year due to attrition with teams like KC and Baltimore. Knowing that, if they can make some very positive additions, like we hope, they could easily enter the season as the favorite in the AFC.

Yeah but you could say the same about the Bills 4 regular season losses. Baltimore and Houston lost 12 games when it mattered in the regular season. The Bills lost only 3.......but lost to both of them in great part due to timing. The Rams needed perfect timing to align to win against Buffalo. Bills caught them at the absolute worst time. The timing of the draw against the Lions balanced that out. The Patriots only won because it was a meaningless game for Buffalo. Hence, 4 losses. I wasn't one of the people who thought Buffalo was going to struggle last season so the schedule played out in a manner that was fairly predictable. INCLUDING most of the specific games.......like the losses to Baltimore and Houston, who both figured to be better than they actually were in the regular season.

I mean, they didn't get much impact from last offseason's free agent or draft moves, don't have a lot of key players primed to age-out like they had in other seasons and don't have much to lose in free agency..........so why would we anticipate LESS than the team that went 13-3 before letting NE win the finale? 14 wins will probably get you home field or within a game of it. An 8-0 start might be too early to anticipate getting home field advantage throughout........ but it's a message board and we talk about stuff like that. The schedule certainly lines up favorably between the amount of home versus road games and the quality of home opponents versus those on the road(where the Bills lost all 5 of the games that they dropped this season).

It often happens because of the parity in the league.....but it's not a pattern per se. And sometimes those teams that surprise are doing it largely due to a last place schedule of their own. So maybe they go into Carolina next season when the Panthers are 9-7 or something........that record might not reflect their ability to matchup with the Bills. And, of course, sometimes teams projected to be bad just stay bad. The tangible point that the OP hasn't mentioned is that the Bills get 9 home games this season. They had 9 road games last season. One of those 9 in 2025 could be at a neutral site.......but those will happen for every team every 2-3 years........and despite their experience in England a couple of years ago, I'd rather play at a neutral site than have the 9th game be against the most dominant team in the NFC like it was this past year. It looks like a favorable setup for the Bills to finally get the #1 seed this season.