BADOLBILZ

Yes his rib injury was common knowledge. It's likely why he was constantly turtling up short of the first down most of the season. I think he clearly lost a step but he didn't lose so much that he would have fallen off from 11.8 yards per reception to a running-back-like 8.5 and his 1st downs decreased by 21 on almost the same amount of grabs.

Yeah Brown was graded on a curve for sure...........he missed the college season of 2020 and made huge strides working with Joe Staley but he basically went from an obscure small school prospect the last time he played college ball in 2019........to being an NFL starter a few game days later. It's to be expected that both he and Greg Rousseau(with just 1 year of college game experience) were going to be works in progress. They both stop getting graded on that curve this year (except for from the usual suspects on TSW who demand patience and low expectations until the very last paycheck of those rookie deals gets cashed ).

It's not only a reasonable philosophy, it's the way it should be done and there isn't an imaginary line in the middle of round 1 that changes that. Frankly, the objective in round 2 should STILL be to try to come away with a potential PassRush1/CB1/WR1/LT1...........aiming for players at positions of low ceiling impact even in the 60's is questionable form. You have to look at those early picks like they have a very high dollar value on them. I've been saying this on TSW about the 1st round in particular for close to 2 decades and the NFL is now very much doing this. It's to the point where it's not really a secret anymore. Positional value......and therefore cash value of that position.......is incredibly important. Round 1 is for acquiring talent at the big $ positions that you can't expect to acquire in UFA. I've also said since then that the draft is an ongoing process of team building..........not just an annual event. When you view each draft as the latter you open yourself up to the mistake of thinking "this time" we can draft to patch holes. And you don't just take a year off from that process just because you don't have a glaring need on your roster.........that's how you end up with Clyde Edwards Helaire.......and then have a holes at multiple big $ positions two seasons later. Needs change FAST........need should weigh FAR LESS into the equation than the importance of position does.

Jason Peters is available and much better than Nsekhe. Peters was a good starting LT last year on a $2M deal so he might want to wait until late summer again and walk into another starting opportunity............but I am for the idea of bringing him in that cheap and letting him play a few series every game at RT/LT until if/when he might be needed. Keeping the OL fresh and preventing fatigue related injuries and performance decline will become a thing soon, IMO. Then draft a potential future LT who can play guard in the meantime.

Mentioned it before but I heard a Vegas oddsmaker say this week that Tyreek Hill was worth +1.5 points on the spread.........as much as any player other than a QB. But, yeah.......that still leaves them 3 TD's, 2 conversions and a FG from the upset.

That Niners game in 2020 was the only time I recall seeing Edmunds moved up on the LOS and it was one of his better games as a pro, IMO.

Zach Martin was definitely a top 5 player in that class, IMO. So was the safety from Louisville (who became a total bust). But I wouldn't have taken either in round 1 because you gotta' treat that 1st round pick like it's a $20M-$30M free agent signing. That's what that chip should be worth to you.......and no guard or safety or RB or MLB is ever worth that kind of scratch. If you can't find a player worth that much then trade for an established stud or trade out. One of my least favorite Bills drafts was 2009......and not because they took a big swing on Maybin and missed.......but because it was doomed to fail before any of them saw the field. Eric Wood, Andy Levitre and Jairus Byrd......3 players at non-premium positions........were all selected within 30 picks between late first and second rounds. Anyone with common sense about how the cap worked KNEW right then and there that they would be able to easily justify not giving those guys a second contract. Said it then.........and sure enough two of the three didn't get re-upped despite playing at legit Pro Bowl and All Pro levels. High picks are for players at positions you will feel compelled not to lose when they perform at a high level.

Yep and Safford says he's getting over the shoulder injury that nagged him last season

He lost his sister, who was very close to him, to suicide and struggled to get his career trajectory back after that.

Funny how there seems to be a consensus on this now. The same people went from "people can't understand his value" to "he's done" with a quickness.

But from a scout's perspective..........the cash value of the player.......which is heavily position reliant..........doesn't matter on the board. In reality it's a huge factor that greatly dictates your return on investment. As @MrEpsYtown stated very well.........there are busts at every position.........but there is no boom when drafting IOL in round 1. This is why executive types with virtually no scouting experience, like Beane and Howie Roseman, have GM jobs while the Gettleman's are being put out to pasture. I don't love all of Beane's work but I have liked round 1 every time.........I'd hope he would never go guard or center in round 1...........you can buy adequate versions of those players pretty cheap in UFA or develop them yourself and win big. "Adequate" edge/island/QB players get you beat and cost you a fortune in UFA if they even make it there.

I absolutely take Penning at 25..........if Beane passes on a specimen like him there that would be a mistake, IMO. The draft ain't about patching holes but even with that being the case it's not like the LT position was great last year...........Dawkins got covid TWICE and has conditioning issues that will probably hit HARD when he loses that step in his late 20's. If they get 7 years out of him at LT that will be great value for a good-feet-bad-body LT like Dion.........and he's already going into year 6. If a potential stud LT is there you take him, IMO.

As I noted prior..........I can remember being on the other end of these deals when Marv and Jauron were stupidly chasing RFA's. It was like "well, see........we TRIED".............the GM equivalent of "fake hustle". Meanwhile they were excused from the ACTUAL free market for a week. Will not be remembered as some of Poles best work. I was hoping Poles would have a good showing in Chicago since he's a local WNY kid but all he did was run up the bill just enough to be a nuisance.

Yeah I can remember being thrilled when the Bills took Ruben Brown...........it was a huge relief.........it was so important to have good guard play in the mid-1990's...........the run almost always set up the pass in that NFL.........but also because most of the QB's were beat up and immobile by the time the game slowed down for them. Josh Allen had some pretty raunchy OG play last season and he still dominated most games...........the Bills just need to get to average there first to start with and Bates/Morse/Saffold *might* do that........but long term they need to be better than that to preserve Allen. I think this is a good draft to find a couple future starting IOL.........but I think most of us agree that it shouldn't happen in round 1.

I was entirely for drafting Brown in round 1...........it was hardly debatable that he was the right pick and we knew he was going to be the pick..........the thing the Bills did wrong in that draft was NOT DRAFT ANOTHER guard soon after Brown. But the NFL was so much different then. The running game was still the more important aspect of offense to be good at and defenses were allowed to destroy QB's. Nobody lost MORE early round value with the 2010 rules changes than interior OL. (Runnin' bax were already getting committee-ized prior to that)

I believe the figure was $3.9M. Beane lost the battle........that shouldn't be contested..........but if Bates pans out he will have won the war. My big issue with letting Bates walk is that it's so often lamented that even early drafted OL stink for the first few years in the league............so losing Bates on the cheap only to have to replace him with an early pick after you spent all that time seasoning him would have been a SMH situation. (Actual footage of Bates being seasoned)

When the Bills first put the low tender on Bates I thought the intention was to basically get him to negotiate his own long term deal instead of the 1-and-done or big against yourself options. Beane got poled by Poles........but just the tip. I think they were probably hoping for 2 years $7M or 3 years $10M and were probably prepared to do a 3 year $12M deal..........basically the 2nd round tender times 3........... but Poles went to 4 years(not a big deterrent, IMO) and the extra $250K per year(the tip). There was some speculation on here by those who would draft a guard in round 1 that the deal was going to be $5M-$6.5M aav........but that was NONSENSE!.........nobody pays an RFA that much above the second round tender. Poles would've looked like an idiot if he had offered that. This situation brought back memories of the Jauron/Levy Bills signing big DL Israel Idonije and G Reggie Wells to offer sheets in 2006 only to have Chicago and Arizona gladly match and thank those dumbassbills for negotiating the deals for them.

I know you like that stat but in fairness, almost all of those wins were clustered into a couple very brief periods in team history and games where they were clearly the superior team. They haven't made the playoffs enough times and had games against SB contending opponents late in the playoffs to suffer inogminious defeats the way that Green Bay has in the Rodgers era, for instance. And most of those Bills wins were in the early 90's which is long enough ago that intentionally excluding the home playoff losses in the 1960's in there is cherry picking. They lost at home with a chance to play in the first SB.

The NFL doesn't want to start their regular season in the poor TV ratings time of summer.........they want to wait until after Labor Day. Makes A LOT more sense ratings wise to extend the season until the beginning of NCAA March Madness..........which is the way it's trending.

First......at least 5 of those guys were drafted to play tackle but ended up at guard after they failed horribly outside.........Leatherwood being the most recent............very few players ever get selected strictly to play inside in round 1. And top interior OL often end up hitting free agency because its hard to justify paying them and because SMART teams fill their key positions in the draft and bad teams will always panic and overpay for interior OL in free agency. Drafting interior OL early is just bad strategy and sets you up to be a farm team for others to steal from. The "can't go broke making a profit" mindset in the early part of the draft........picking the low hanging fruit at IOL and Running Back for instance........is how you end up without enough difference makers. It's a matchup league.........which is why edge/island players make the big bucks.......they GET the one-on-one opportunities to change games..........those are the positions you draft early.

$6.5M aav would be a jaw dropping RFA bid.........likely a record for any position.

Yep, hopefully it's built so that it can be fully enclosed later. RWS was built for 14 game seasons that ended the second week in December.........once we get to 18 game seasons with 2 byes the season will be ending in late January and the conference playoffs could be wrapping up in late February. January is the worst weather month in WNY but the season potentially extending 2 months deeper into winter in itself will be challenging...........especially for those who have to travel a long way to get to the stadium. The un-tapped future of sports team revenue is milking patrons AFTER they are in the stadium so forcing them to make a business decision just to show up to your venue isn't profit-wise, IMO.

You want Allen to run less McDermott? Make the OL better and add RAC ability and speed to the receiving corps........this draft needs to be ABOUT THAT. Then try to come away with a CB2 candidate to push Jackson and a LB and S with athletic upside and potential to play important snaps in the system in 2023.

Schoen if you want a draft pick for Bradberry.....

I do hope they retain Bates. Speaking of Bears LT.......I would like to see the Bills end up with Jason Peters as a reserve tackle cheap if he chooses not to wait until August or September to sign again. Old but better than Ty Nsekhe was and Beane paid Tired Ty $7M aav. Peters was on a $2M 1 year deal with Chicago and then play him a few series every game to keep the tackles fresh and avoid the kind of catastrophic situations we saw with Brown and Doyle at LT(Doyle was a perfect 1 snap/1 sack at LT). And rotating OL more will be part of the future of football. Older fans will deny it.....but with 17-18 game seasons and spread offenses......it's coming. I can remember when people insisted Willis McGahee and Travis Henry couldn't share the same backfield and thought I was crazy when I insisted 2 back systems were coming. Two years later it was already becoming the norm. The Bills might as well stay ahead of it.