I went through the nfl.com top 100 players of 2013 and looked up their draft round. My goal here is with the trade up scenario about giving away draft picks.
61% of the players on this list were taken in the first round and 1st round picks consist of 24 if the top 30. Second round picks are 16% of the list. It gets interesting from here. Both 3rd, 4th and undrafted players are all tied at 6-7%.
Now the value of the mid round guys are with depth and injuries are a huge part of football. However, my take is if Watkins is that generational player, give up a second and move up and get him. Don’t give up a future first.
The common argument I hear from most people is that this is such a deep draft, don’t give up picks. You could take that statement with this data and say don’t give up a high second as that is close to a first round talent in other years.
My thought is, if he is AJ Green/ Julio Jones good, get him, and since this draft is so deep, the player pool for UDFA’s will be deeper than normal and you can make up for it on the back end.
I’ve attached the data