billsfan89

I stopped believing in reports from OTA's and practices or at least taking them with a grain of salt when people were talking about how awful this Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was looking in practices in his rookie and sophomore off-season.

The Bills will on June 1st have 12.7 million in cap space. But functionally they won't actually have 12.7 million to go out and spend. You have to factor in the following for the Bills cap. Rookie pool - Rookies haven't been officially inked that's going to cost the Bills about 2 million. Practice Squad- Yes the PS counts against the Cap you gotta reserve about 4 million for that. In season emergencies - Most teams reserve about 3 million for in season emergencies Bills usually go in at that range. So the Bills actual functional salary cap space after adding in those 3 costs is going to be at about 3.7 million. The Bills will have about 3.7 million in space to actually play with after setting aside rookie/PS/Emergency money. Which is a solid amount of space to work with. Now if the Bills really want more cap space for some big trade they can open up a bit more space than the 3.7ish million they are likely to have. The following restructures are on the table. Josh Allen - Convert the remaining amount of his current year and the Bills can open up 6 million in additional space. Ed Oliver - The Bills can convert the remainder of his base to a bonus and open up 1.3 million in space. Von Miller - He has a very small base salary that can be converted over and saves 1.2 million in space. Matt Milano - Converting his base salary to a bonus can open up about 2.1 million in space. That's about 10.6 million in space that is available to the Bills. However, I think the Bills will for sure not want to convert Von or Milano both are older and coming off injuries. I do think they would if the right trade is there they will consider doing Josh and Ed's deals to open up about 7.3 million in additional space if something "too good to be true" is out there or the team is just desperate. I think the Bills aren't likely to go out there on the vet free agent market. They signed a lot of vets like Smoot and MVS already later in free agency and if the Bills need a big time DL or WR addition their current workable space of 3.7 million will go farther at the trade deadline. So I think their best "bang for their buck" is going to be at the trade deadline where they can take on bigger contracts for less money. TLDR: Bills after Tre's money hits will have about 3.7 million to actually work with once you take into account signing rookies, practice squad and a 3 million dollar reserve for emergencies. They can convert some other contracts to open up more space but that's unlikely but an option they can do. Most likely the Bills will just hold onto the money and see what is there at the trade deadline.

Davis is in a rotation with Ty and Cook is the confirmed lead back. To me that's more of a role player than a starter. Carter is in a 4 man rotation at DT, I don't think that to me qualifies him as a starter. The Bills are going to be relying on a lot of rookies to play roles but the roles are more so limited roles that I think they can handle.

The only three players that are possible to start are Coleman, Bishop and SVPG. The rest of the rookies are either slotted to be depth role players (Hardy, Davis, Solomon, Carter, Grabel, and Edefu) or a project like Clayton. The Bills are not going to have to heavily depend on this draft class to step into many starting roles unless there are injuries. I think expecting 2 and maybe 3 players to start or have bigger roles out of your rookie class is pretty "standard" for most draft classes.

They are all going to replace Diggs by committee so to speak. There’s no one immediate replacement for Diggs so to speak.

I actually think Von will have a nice season with 7-10 sacks but DPOY is going to require him to be at or at least near the league lead in sacks. Von has never won the award even when he was in his prime in Denver. So I doubt at age 35 he's gonna just "pop off" with 15+ sacks. Even in 2022 he was having a really good season and he had 8 sacks in 11 games he probably wasn't going to win DPOY (unless he went on a complete bender with sacks and great play) even though he was at a 12-14 sack pace.

Live events are just so insanely unaffordable. It is about time the US starts to enforce anti-trust laws. But just to keep this to Ticketmaster/Live Nation these companies needlessly drive up the cost of tickets while also not doing anything to prevent scalping. In fact these companies encourage scalping in many instances.

The concerns about Worthy being able to "hold up" are very legit. People though Zay Flowers was a bit small and Flowers was at time of combine 17 pounds heavier and 2 inches shorter. Flowers was also slower having run a fast but not insanely fast 4.42 40 time. Worthy is very thin and runs insanely fast. Tyreke Hill ran a 4.29 40 and was 183 pounds and just under 5 foot 9. Compared to Worthy whose 5 foot 11 and 165 who runs a 4.21 40 time. Don't get me wrong I see why Worthy went round 1. He's not only has that insane speed but he's produced well at the college level. He's had 3 seasons of very strong production at a very strong college program. He also is just 21 and hasn't had any injury history (unlike John Ross who had only 1 really productive college season and was hurt a lot in college) but staying healthy in the NFL is hard for anyone let along someone with that speed and body type. KC made a smart play taking a chance on Worthy, they have a chance on a real "home run" pick in the late 1st round. But it is going to come down to can he stay healthy and develop a little more of his range other than just being a speedy guy. I do like the Coleman pick better for the Bills not only for the tremendous value the two trade downs provided in terms of improving the Bills draft position in rounds 3, 5 and 6 but also I think Coleman has a potential to be an Anquan Boldin type steal. Boldin was downgraded because he ran a slow 40 time. He had two very productive college season esp his junior season and he had a very strong skillset but teams couldn't overlook the 4.71 40 time. Coleman's 4.61 40 similarly sank people on his value as not a great separator (despite the fact that he ran a solid 4.53 at his pro-day and his other speed tests were great). I think people also sleeping on him because his college production while good wasn't eye popping but ignoring his rather bad QB play.

I loved the SVPG pick, back to back years the Bills got a very strong IOL prospect fall to them at a good value largely because they were "only" a guard (in the case of Torrence) or "only" a center in the case of SVPG. I get that teams like to have flexibility for their reserve offensive line players to have the ability to play two positions because teams only carry 9 and at most 10 offensive linemen on the 53 man roster and they usually keep one inactive. So with only 3-4 players in reserve on game day each team usually likes to have a swing tackle that can play LT/RT, a guard that can flex out to RT, and a center that can flex to a guard spot at a minimum. Whereas if you have a player occupying 1 of 3 bench spots whose "only" a backup at one position that's leaving you vulnerable. However, I think that ignores the ability for your starters to move around. If SVPG can't displace McGovern or Edwards then McGovern's ability to flex out to guard makes having a "pure" backup center the same as having a Center that can play guard. It's smart roster building as I think SVPG is good enough to push for a starting role and was highly undervalued due to perceived lack of positional flexibility.

The conditions for Claypool cannot be any better so if he fails with the Bills there's really no hope for him. Claypool is with a quality organization, is on a minimum deal where he can be cut with no ramifications, he's on his 4th team in 3 seasons so he is clearly on his last chance, and he is playing with the best QB he's ever played with. He's also on a team where he can actually get opportunities at WR if he plays well. Outside of Shakir and Samuel there's no WR's that are established and going to take up a good amount of target. Coleman is a high draft pick but he can easily be displaced if he shows the need for polish, MVS is a solid vet but he's not certain to take up a bunch of targets, Hollins is more of a special teams player and the rest of the WR group are fringe players. So if Claypool can't do it here he's never going to do it and that's a wrap for his NFL career.

I thought McDermott showed a lot of growth last season. Last season very well could have "gotten away" from McD doing into the bye week at 6-6. They won against KC away, dominated Dallas at home, narrowly escaped LA in the clutch, took care of NE in a game that was not as close as it seemed, and came up clutch again Miami. They then took care of the Steelers in the playoffs before a combination of key injuries, bad luck, and lack of execution in the clutch cost them a somewhat close game against KC. But McD completely changed his vibe and became less tight and less critical of players. The players acknowledged it and the team won their last five regular season games along with a playoff game. I am hoping that McD continues to evolve as a leader and communicator. Everyone always says how Andy Reid is owning Mcd and is this brilliant coach and that McD simply cannot compete with the genius of Reid (being a bit hyperbolic but that's not too far off from some people's views). But Andy Reid was a highly successful coach that fell short with many very good teams and very good QB's (McNabb, Mike Vick and Alex Smith all good to above average QB's). Reid didn't just become an offensive super genius in 2018 when Mahomes entered his second year. You need a lot of luck to win a championship, thus far McD has had a combination of bad luck and self inflicted issues. Reid took a long time to learn from that both with his run in Philly and his early years in KC with Alex Smith. McD will hopefully put together that lucky run and continue to develop good talent with the help of McBeane

Thanks for the complement! I would not consider Kingsley Jonathan to the list as a reclamation project simply because he's more of a developmental player whose a younger player still trying to reach his peak. As opposed to a reclamation project which is a player whose had success but is coming off a downturn. Semantics but that's why he wasn't on the list. As for Kingsley Jonathan with the Addition of Smoot in free agency and Solomon in the draft Jonathan's road to making the 53 is going to be harder as while the team carried 6 DE's on the roster last season that's not a guarantee they carry 6 again. But if Jonathan shows out in camp he certainly has a good shot to make the rotation.

I thought for sure there would be many teams who took interior offensive linemen ahead of Torrence in round 2 that would regret not taking Torrence. But the interior offensive line class of 2023 was insanely stacked at least on the early returns. The following IOL players were taken before Torrence Steve Avila (Rams) Matthew Bergeron (Falcons) Joe Tippman (Jets) Cody Mauch (Bucs) John Michael Schmitz (Giants) Four out of Five of those players had really strong rookie seasons. Only John Michael Schmitz from the Giants had a "bad" rookie year. And to show you how insane that second round was Juice Scruggs was drafted 3 picks after Torrence and he had a good rookie year as well. That's 6 IOL out of 7 selected in round 2 having strong rookie seasons. And even the lone outlier John Michael Schmitz was a very strong prospect and can easily turn it around. We could be look at 6-7 starting caliber to All-Pro caliber IOL drafted in a single round. As a reference just two IOL players were drafted this past draft (Powers Johnson and Frazier) so just 7 being drafted is pretty high.

McD plugged and played Torrence and Kincaid last season as starters. I also think outside of Coleman, Bishop and maybe SVPG the rest of the draft picks are entering into the season mainly backup or specific roles. Just breaking it down outside of Coleman, Bishop and possibly SVPG I can't see any other rookie taking a starting spot. Dwyane Carter - Going to take a rotational DT role there's three vet DT's in front of him (Oliver, Daquon and Johnson) plus Deshawn Williams will be competing with Carter for snaps. Ray Davis - Sliding into a backup role possible as a third string RB or as a RB2. Edeufan - There's at least 4 LB's in front of him in Milano, Bernard, Williams and Morrow/Spector. I think he is going to mostly slide into a ST role year one. Solomon - There are at least 3 DE's in front of him (Von, AJE and Groot) likely 4 as I think Smoot is also taking some snaps in rotation. So Solomon is at best sliding into a backend role. Grabel - Dawkins and Brown are the starting LT and RT. While Van Denmark is the swing tackle and possibly Colins and Edwards can flex out to RT. I honestly think Grabel is in line for the that "red shirt" treatment. Hardy - Is slotting into the 5/6 CB role and will likely just take on a kick/punt returner role as a rookie. Travis Clayton - I think this guy is headed for a PS slot he needs at least 1 if no 2-3 years of development. Given that Coleman and Bishop were both 2nd round picks I think they should slot in well as decent starters while SVPG doesn't "have" to start as they have options along the O-line.

I think Elam has shown flashes that he can be a good starting caliber corner. His rookie year was more like a "typical" rookie season very up and down but certainly showing he can hang if he polished up his game. 2023 he really regressed early looking outright bad. But once it came out that he had a pretty bad ankle injury and went on IR it made sense why he looked so bad. I think when he came back from IR he looked better. I think he is going to have that Spencer Brown bounce back season if he stays healthy. McGovern at center I think was always a "plan B" they were pretending was a "plan A" scenario. I hope SVPG is able to take the starting center role and move McGovern back to LG and Edwards on the bench and in jumbo packages.

Which players whose careers have entered a downturn but are being given a second/third/fourth chance on their NFL careers on the 2024 Bills (what I would call reclamation projects) will work out and be productive and which will be busts? I think all good teams take on a few and get some production from bargain shopping so to speak. Here is my list. Hits: Duwane Smoot - This was a player who was very good from 2019 to 2022 a consistent 5-6 sack a year player with the Jags whose advanced metrics were also mostly good (I know PFF is flawed but he had 68 and 70 grades in 2021 and 2022 to go along with good pass rush win rate stats). The reason he's a reclamation project is due to an Achilles injury in late 2022 (week 16). That led to Smoot coming back to the Jags on a 1 year deal in 2023 and starting the season on the PUP list. Smoot's 2023 was not very good with just 1 sack and poor advanced metrics. I think a year further removed from injury he has a good chance to take the Shaq Lawson rotational snaps and have a better season. La'el Collin - Collins was a really good player at guard and RT for the Cowboys particularly from 2017-2021. He signed as a free agent with the Bengals in 2022 in an attempt to overhaul an offensive line that was terrible. Collins in 2022 had a nagging back injury that really held him back in 2022 and then he had a really bad ACL/MCL injury in late 2022. He didn't play much in 2023 only signing on late in season with the Cowboys as a member of the PS. Now going into 2024 he's going to be 1 year 9 months removed from the 2022 injury and I think he's going to be a key component to the teams bench on the offensive line and might start at LG outright if he outshines Edwards and SVPG needs a year to develop at center. Austin Johnson - Not the most dramatic reclamation project but still someone coming off two down years in his career. I think he's going to occupy those Tim Settle/Jordan Phillips rotational snaps more effectively. Johnson was playing in a poor scheme fit in LA plus Johnson got hurt in 2022. I think he may have one more good season playing in a scheme more similar to his better years in Tennessee and with the Giants. Von Miller - Bills had no choice but to bring Von back as he was willing to restructure his deal. I don't think he regains his 2022 form but I think he can have a nice season 8-10 sacks on a good pressure rate. Von just was not good in 2023 but as the season wore on especially after the bye he started to flash a little. Hoping another off-season to heal and maybe with a new incentive laden contract he kind of gives the team the production that Floyd gave them but more evenly spread out. Busts: Deion Jones - Jones is a low risk signing and I like it but I think he's just not that good anymore. He was on the decline in Atlanta his last year there a past two years has bounced around to two teams in the Browns and Panthers neither stint he was that great. Now on the Bills I think he's a late camp cut. Chase Claypool - Another rather low risk signing but one I don't see working out. Claypool is just 25 and has tremendous talent. Claypool has even produced really well his first two years in the league with 800+ yards in back to back seasons. He was traded to Chicago and then to Miami a year later, neither stop he produced well despite being in a situation in Miami where he had a decent QB, good system and two stud WR's to take attention and give him single coverage. I know Claypool is on what is effectively his last chance so that might be motivation but if a player is a ***** head under achiever that rarely turns around. Rooting for him but I don't think this project is going to work out. Tommy Doyle/Andy Isabella/KJ Hamler/Matt Haack - Not really players that are of much significance but guys the Bills are "kicking the tires on" who were former high draft picks (Isabella and Hamler) or have had past stints with the team (Haack and Doyle) none are more than camp body PS candidates to me. So who will be the player to turn things around on the Bills this season and who won't?

I think with the signing of Smoot I just don't see the Bills going after another vet. Smoot is guaranteed 1.75 million of his 2.5 million salary. He's actually a nice upgrade to Shaq for those 4/5 DE snaps. Smoot was a routine 5-6 sack player for the Jags from 2019-2022. The only reason he was available for such a relatively cheap deal was because his 2022 season in week 16 ended with an Achilles injury and he started 2023 on the PUP list and had a bad season. One more year removed from that injury and at just age 29 I think he will be a productive rotational DE.

I think the Bills doing the cap gymnastics (converting the rest of Josh's money, converting Ed's money and then doing a heavily backloaded extension) to do a pre-season trade is unlikely. I think there's also the chance that they like what they have on the roster or at least like it enough to go into the season with it then consider a deadline deal if they need some more firepower. MVS gives you that vet depth you needed at the WR4 spot and you have Claypool and Hamler to kick the tires on and compete with Shorter for that WR6 spot (Hollins occupying that WR5 in that special teams role similar to Jake Kumerow and Sherfield.)

What does this mean for CTESPN?

The Bills will not functionally have 10 million when Tre’s money hits. Their cap space on June 1st will be 12.7 million but the Bills will need to officially sign the rookies which will intake 1-2 million, they will need to reserve 4 million for the practice squad and 3 million for in season emergencies and overruns. So in reality that’s going to leave the Bills with about 3.7 to 5 million in actual space. Of course the Bills could convert the rest of Josh’s salary to create another 6 million in space which will get the Bills back up to 10-12 million in space. There is the chance they can also restructure Ed Oliver’s contract but I doubt they are going to touch Milano’s deal as Milano is 30 and coming off a major injury. 10-12 million is not going to be easy to get a big WR contract in under the cap without backloading a massive contract that probably is not going to be tenable for the Bills long term. I think the Bills with the addition of MVS are probably going to see what they have at WR to start the season and then if there’s a real lack of firepower they can make an in season acquisition where it will be a lot easier to fit a bigger contract under the cap 6+ weeks into the season. I also think the Bills brass may also want to see what they have and know what they need to add (do they need a burner, a big body or something else?) The options likely will open up more and be easier to fit under the cap around the trade deadline.

If the Bills had 3 less sacks in that Commanders game which with 6 sacks seems like a pretty "normal" "good" game then the Bills are still tied for 5th at 51 sacks. So your thesis that the Bills ranking is that inflated by one 9 sack game is just not holding up. Looking at the Bills sack by game it doesn't really look like the Bills just "fattened up" all that much on just one game. In fact looking at sacks per-game from games 1-8 and 9-17 while there is a better rate in the first 8 weeks it is not as dramatic as fans may think. Sacks from weeks 1-8 averaged the Bills averaged 3.5 sacks a game. From weeks 9-17 the Bills averaged 2.9 sacks per game. A 3.5 sack per game pace over 17 games a season would have been 59.5 sacks which would have been right around the lead league with Baltimore who had 60 sacks. A 2.9 sack per game sack per game pace is good for 49 sacks which would have been tied with the Browns for 6th still a very strong pace over the last 9 games of the season. The Bills basically went from a top 2 sack rate in weeks 1-8 down to a top 6 sack rate in weeks 9-17. A sack rate just outside the top 5 is still a very good sack rate and dam near elite. I think the difference was really just Floyd slowed down. Floyd had 6.5 sacks in weeks 1-8 vs. just 4 in weeks 9-17 which while not tragically dramatic is still significant. But what I really think showed how less effective Floyd was performing was Floyd's QB hits also went down dramatically from 12 in the first 8 weeks to just 7 on the back 9. Had Floyd been more consistent the gap in sacks and pass rush performance would have narrowed. Bills sack totals listed for visual reference. 3 0 9 4 5 3 1 3 1 4 6 2 1 3 5 3 1

It's very possible the offense can struggle without the presence of a true number 1 WR target or multiple consistent "WR2" type players to complement Kincaid. But I also think that the Bills if the offense is struggling could make a move for a WR at the trade deadline. Once Tre's money hits the Bills will have 12.7 million in space. Take out the rookies, Practice squad and a few million for in season emergencies and you have about 3-5 million to actually play with plus another 6 million possible if they convert the rest of Josh's salary to a bonus. That 9-11 million isn't a crazy amount to play with prior to the season in terms of "Star" WR trades. But by the trade deadline 3-5 million can go a long way and 9-11 million can go a really long way. And considering the Bills have an extra 2nd and 4th round pick from Minny and Chicago they have the draft ammo to make any trade.

Bills just gotta beat the Cardinals week one and take it from there. I think they certainly are gonna have some kinks to work out early in the season with 9 rookies and the new starters on the roster but things will work out.

I didn't think there was a chance Diggs got traded this season. I do think there is a chance this team does trade for a "big time" WR but I think a trade is more likely to come at or near the trade deadline. I think for one cap wise the team even once Tre's money hits on June 1st they don't have too much to play with. They are going to have about 12.7 million once Tre's money hits. I think currently they have about 2.7 million in cap space but 10 million will get added on June 1st. But the rookie contracts will eat into that 2 million. They then will have to reserve 4 million for the practice squad and another 3ish million for in season emergencies. That will only leave them with about 3-4 million they can truly play with to make a big trade. 3-4 million will go a lot farther on a trade deadline deal when the team making the trade will have already paid some money and bigger cap numbers will be easier to absorb. I think with the addition of MVS puts them in a spot where they can "see what they have" and then understand what type of WR they need and have a better chance to fit that need under the cap.

Everyone is hyperbolic but point taken.