billsfan89

This isn't a championship team, but in 2019 the team will have a shitload of cap space to go out and put talent around a young QB, the Bills will actually be in a position to take advantage of a young QB on a rookie contract. Whereas it is entirely possible in your hypothetical scenario that the Bills could have been stuck with a lot of over-inflated contracts for under-performing and injured players. By signing Gilmore, Woods, and keeping Darby and Glenn the Bills (While still eating dead cap from Dareus and Taylor) would have been in a pretty bad spot cap wise while they have a young QB, thus negating an advantage of having an affordable QB under contract for the first 3 years. Yeah by 2020 they could have gotten out from under a lot of those deals but then you are close to having to pay your rookie QB which means your window in that regard is closing. Gilmore was considered overpaid by the Pats so how much money would it have cost to keep him in Buffalo? Gilmore commanded 13 aav from a much better team, would you have been willing to pay him 15-16 million to stay? Robert Woods isn't a #1 WR, he is thriving in LA but they brought in Sammy and Cooks to avoid having to lean on him entirely in the receiving core. You can consider Woods better than KB but I can't say the difference is that much. If you traded away Sammy you don't really have that much of an improved WR core unless you still trade draft capital for KB (Which you have less of in this scenario.) Also do Darby and Gilmore fit in a zone scheme in your hypothetical scenario? With Woods and Gilmore on massive deals they can't go out and get Hyde which creates a big hole on defense. The Bills were in a tight spot in the 2017 off-season cap wise. If they signed Gilmore as the highest paid corner in the league and signed Woods as a top 25 (at the time) WR contract they are pretty capped out that off-season and they would be pretty tight in 2018 esp with having to eat Dareus and Tyrod dead money. 2019 they would have had some space but then Darby has to get paid which would eat into it. I do understand your point about it being frustrating to lose good players who are doing well on other teams while the Bills accrued draft picks and future space. But if the Bills actually wanted to follow the blueprint for winning in the NFL (Have a good young QB on a rookie contract and sell out to get talent while you have an affordable QB) then the Bills had to pass on a QB in 2017 and get out from under a lot of their big contracts in 2018. Had they drafted a QB in 2017 they would have been capped out for 3-4 years trying to keep talent that while good wasn't lighting the world on fire and in some cases had serious injury risks. I am not saying McBeane's method will work but rather that it was the right way to try and rebuild a team under a new regime. Accrue draft capital to move up for a QB, clear out big contracts and malcontents while acquiring draft picks, and open up a lot of salary cap space while you have multiple years of affordable rookie scale QB play. Now it is possible that the players McBeane brings in via free agency won't be as good (I fear that greatly given their pro-personnel track record) but they have to try and build a team the correct way.

The Saints proved that having a top 5 QB doesn't guarantee consistent contention, it is a team game even if QB is the biggest piece it isn't a panacea . However even having a top 10 Tony Romo type QB is a huge advantage in the league but it still doesn't even guarantee you being in the playoffs consistently let alone title contention. But if you don't have a good QB your chances to compete are always very limited. Sure you could do what the Jags and several other teams in the past have done (Great defenses, solid special teams, and good talent around a QB on offense) but eventually guys on defense and surrounding the QB want to get paid and you can't keep them all or guys get old. Usually if you have stacked teams around a mediocre QB you have a 2-3 year window to make a run and even then you are most likely capped as to how far you can go (Eventually you run into a team with the better QB and a good defense.) Then after 2-3 years of deep playoff exits you fall off and you still don't have a QB. So in the end getting a QB is the most important part of building a team but it isn't the only part far from it.

I am going off the eyeball test, for sure Miller and Vlad are grading out better than fans think but when I watch the games it seems like the O-line is getting consistently beat and it isn't just coming from Groy. I make no disillusions of grandeur that I know better than many forms of advanced metrics that were saying that the O-line beyond Groy played well or at least not as bad as previously thought. I also didn't say I would put Teller in right now (I think Bodine is the right and easy call to make for a change as Groy has under-performed and Bodine had spent a lot of time with the starting crew. I was more so stating why fans are so obsessed with Teller. Fans think the guards are playing poorly and they think that Teller a mid round pick could have been a steal and they think he could be better. The fans may not be right of course but that's the fan philsophy. I actually just saw the All-22. I am kind of shocked at their grades. Most players graded at a B- or better. Seems like if most of your players did an average or better job the game wouldn't have been so lopsided. I expected good grades on the defensive side and worse ones on the offensive side.

That's another factor I didn't consider. Bodine might be able to set a lot of the protection calls reliving some pressure from Allen. The Bills might have the worst guard combo in the league and a 5th round pick guard (who was viewed as a steal in the 5th round by some pundits) is sitting on the bench. I am thirsty to see him play since "It can't get any worse" might as well see if he sucks since we know Vlad and Miller suck. But for me I am fully aware that Teller probably won't play very well but it is more so out of desperation that I would like to see Teller get a shot at some point esp if the O-line issues continue.

It is the easiest change to make. Bodine is a veteran center who took a lot of snaps with the starters in training camp. This is a natural first move in gradually reshuffling the offensive line. I hope to see Teller in at guard sooner rather than later but this seems to be the easier change to make. I am shocked Groy looked so awful this season. I thought he looked solid in any chance he got in 2016 and 2017 (Although very limited in 2017) I thought he would at least be decent. I don't have much faith in Bodine but you have to try something.

The Maybin comparison isn't accurate. Maybin was built off of having a quick first step and in the NFL he very early on clearly proved that what was supposedly his strengths weren't his strengths at an NFL level. Edumonds has the physical tools and you see it on the field. When Edumonds knows where he is supposed to go he closes early and shows off that he has the tools to be able to play at an elite level. Edumonds just hasn't developed the instincts and read ability to take advantage of his physical tools. That will hopefully come with time and coaching. He is very green but those flashes of brilliance give you hope. He just needs to know where he is going.

I know, it's only 2 games but with Star the lackluster pre-season and the lack of perceived impact in weeks 1 and 2 just make you think that he isn't doing well. I think Edumonds is making him worse than he is. Edumonds is over playing gaps and making bad reads (Which is to be expected for a 20 year old rookie) that leads to bigger runs over the middle that make it look like Star isn't doing his job. Hopefully McD takes a more hands on approach with the defense going forward. I think Allen needs to play in games where he isn't down big early. It will help the offense play more within him and Allen won't be playing to come from behind as much. That's what kills me about Star, if Star was a 7 aav guy with a contract the team could have gotten out of after 2019, I would have loved the signing. He is a dirty work guy that shifts along the o-line and attacks blockers to free up line backers. But for the money they spent they need a dominating player in that dimension and it just doesn't look like he is worth his steep price tag.

The run defense this week was not good, now that might not be Star's fault once you break down the All-22 analysis, Star could have been doing what he does effectively (occupying blockers and taking on guys into the gaps he is designed to) and the porous run defense could have been a result of Edumonds over playing his gaps or the players next to him. It's hard to tell with a player like Star but it just seems from watching him that he looks more like an OK player against the run when he is paid to be a great player in that respect. I watch guys like Snacks and they seem to almost always control the line of scrimmage, like they are immovable players that the opposing O-line can't shift. Star doesn't look like he has an gravity along the trenches.

Poe's average annual value is 9.3, his cap hit for 2018 is 5.3 because of the way it is structured, Star's is structured similarly he is only a 6.4 hit this year. Jennigan's aav is 12. Don't get me wrong I think we overpaid for Star big time. I thought his aav should have been 7-8 I would rather have had Poe for 9.3 but then again who knows what it would have cost to bring him here. https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-tackle/

The argument I am making isn't that this team wouldn't be better with Glenn, Sammy, Dareus, Tyrod, and Darby but would those players put this team at a championship level? If all 5 of those players were on the roster (ignoring the draft picks acquiring other players just for sake of argument) what would this team be? A 7-9 win team? That's certainly better but 3 of those players would have been on massive contracts (Sammy, Glenn, and Dareus) eating up a lot of cap space in 2019. 2 out of those 3 had major injury issues (Sammy and Glenn) while Dareus was a locker room issue. Tyrod hurts to let go because he was on a contract that would have voided after 2018 and he would have made for a competent QB for Allen to be behind for one more year. Darby hurts but the fact that he wasn't a fit for the scheme at least makes the trade understandable and Phillips looks to be a nice piece acquired for him at the very least. You simply would not have had the same amount of cap space in 2019 if you had Glenn, Dareus, and Sammy (on a new contract) on the roster. Those players easily would have taken up well over 40 million in cap space and considering the injury and personality issues of those 3 longer term it is better the team got draft assets and cap space to work with in exchange for them. There simply wouldn't have been the same windfall of cap space in 2019 had they had those players still on the roster. Taking on all that dead cap results in a lot of cap space for 2019 when Allen will still have 4 years remaining on a rookie deal and the team can at least attempt to build a proper team around him. I am not defending all of Beane's moves, I think the Tyrod move was bad, Vonta over Gaines was bad (esp considering what EJ ended up getting), I liked Star but not at the insane price they got him for, and even Murphy I was iffy on. But no matter how bad 2018 ends up being I think McBeane has to get one more year to see if their rebuild can be properly assembled. They will have an off-season with proper cap space, an additional draft class, and the roster will have been properly turned around. If 2019 sucks then hey they get the boot they had all the tools to assemble their team and they !@#$ed up. But right now the process (no pun intended) just isn't complete.

The context is that we are evaluating how this current regime will be at evaluating pro-level talent. McD and a lot of the current staff that made the decisions that brought those players in are the same people that will be making the pro-personnel decisions going forward. Do you really think McD will not be making a lot of the personnel decisions going forward with Beane? How is the cap not an issue? They had a lot of big contracts and InCog and Wood retired. Would this team be that much better with Sammy, Dareus, Darby, Tyrod, and Glenn were on this team? People were bitching that Sammy and Glenn were hurt all the time, Dareus was a bum malcontent, Tyrod despite being a competent QB was not a franchise QB, and Darby was coming off a bit of a down year and not a fit for the current system. What could they have done differently to manage the cap, how was it Beane's fault that there were a bunch of big contracts on the roster entering the 2017 season? Beane had some space to spend and he didn't do a great job as his big ticket items in Murphy and Star weren't too hot but the amount of money to spend was limited. Yes had they kept Sammy, Dareus, Darby, Tyrod, and Glenn they would be better, but would they be a championship team? If they had those big contracts on the roster would they have the cap space to build around Allen in 2019 and beyond? I have serious doubt that Beane will be able to take the cap space and turn it into good veteran acquisitions. But I can't say that the cap was not an issue in building the 2017 and 2018 rosters.

White, Dawkins, and Milano were good picks in 2017, Zay got off to a rough start but he has time to turn it around. Phillips, Edumonds and Allen the jury is still out but Phillips looks like a solid player and Edumonds and Allen are high upside players. Overall through 2 drafts I like their resumes so far in the draft. I think it was clear that McD was calling the shots when Whaley was there. I think McD is still going to be a large part of personnel decisions going forward. Even if you factor out 2017 decisions from Beane he still has only made 2 contracts of over 5 million aav. Murphy and Star, now Murphy looks OK but not fantastic and Star isn't looking too hot. That's not exactly a large sample size to go off of.

I would classify them as being signed by McD who is making a lot of the decisions with Beane. For simplicity sake I just looked at the past two off-seasons.

I am going to defend Beane's pro-personnel a little bit. Beane never really had a lot of cap space to work with in either off-season of 2017 or 2018. Whaley did saddle the team with a lot of contracts some worth it others not. But in the limited amount of contract McBeane has handed out there are more negative than positive moves. Just for simplicity sake looking at the past 2 off-seasons worth of moves it isn't a great resume. Positive Hyde, Poyer, and Hauschka. Negative Star (A bit too soon, not looking too hot), Holmes, DiMarco, Vlad, Ryan Davis, Bodine, Newhouse, and Vontae Neutral/too soon to tell Trent Murphy and Chris Ivory. Now granted a lot of those signings like Holmes, Bodine, Newhouse, Dimarco, Poyer, Haush, and Vlad were sub 3 million dollar contracts. So its hard to say how they are doing on "Big Ticket" items when they are 50/50 on such signings (Hit on Hyde and miss on Star so far.) All in all it looks like the smaller and mid level signings aren't that great while the larger signing just simply haven't happened that often.

My biggest concern with the "Process" is McBeane's pro-personnel decisions. They have been extremely lackluster. Whaley wasn't very good at drafting but he did a good job of finding guys from other teams at a pro-level. Whereas I feel like McBeane is good at drafting but so far hasn't done much in pro-personnel decisions. Right now the best free agent acquisition might have been Haush.

I know its the QB's job to pick up blitzes but a good O-line will help in that regard too. The Cowboys center would make the protection calls for Dak in his rookie year for the most part and it resulted in good protection. Not making an excuse for Allen, but I am saying that the supporting cast particularly on the O-line isn't doing Allen any favors. I wasn't initially on the Allen train (I wanted Rosen) but I have pseudo come around to him as a QB prospect. To all the idiots saying Allen is a bust (He might be but it's his first !@#$ing start) or that his ceiling is an above average QB you could not be any more up your own ass. Allen has literally the first or second strongest arm in the league, he is a 6 foot 5 mobile QB with Big hands and all the intellect and intangibles/work ethic you would want from a QB. Yes he needs to work on his decision making but there are few rookie QB's that don't, yes he needs to work on his footwork and that might ultimately lead to his accuracy issues but he is a hard working guy at least you know he will put in the effort. If Allen finds his footwork look out because he has top 5 QB potential. Now that's not to say he will find his footwork or that his accuracy issues will iron themselves out but rather that it has the potential to in a realistic manner. The future is still uncertain with this kid but at least the sky is the limit.

The only logical defense of the Dareus move is if Dareus was a huge problem in the locker room. On paper it looked like we got out from under one inflated DT contract to then get into another one. It's the opposite of the Whaley regime. McBeane is good at drafting but so far his pro-personnel decisions have been pretty bad, whereas with Whaley it was literally the exact opposite. McBeane's best free agency decision be a kicker. I know they have been pretty cap strapped the past two off-seasons but with the limited moves they have made its been more bad decisions than good ones at least so far.

It couldn't get much worse. Might as well see what Wyatt has over a guy like Miller.

It seemed more aggressive and the coverage seemed tighter. I liked it as it looked a lot better. Hopefully McD will be more influential in the defense going forward. I think Tampa 2 only works when you have insane defensive talent which makes almost any system work.

I think it is possible Allen's footwork can improve with experience as I think the game will slow down for him as he starts more.

Genuine question how does McD's defense differ? Weren't we running a Tampa 2 system last year? Is McD's more aggressive? If McD's calling the plays then aren't those plays from our existing defensive playbook?

Probably thought Gaines was going to get super paid more so than what he was. I didn't hate the Vonta signing, but once the market on Gaines cooled they should have been more aggressive in signing him.

Not necessarily, if McD feels like he comes up with good game plans and prepare the team well he will be a part of this team. There is more to D-Coordinators than the play calling. That being said I would rather McD keep calling the plays, defense looked much better in the second half. Isn't that the same kind of defense Carolina and McD ran? Seems like Frasier was hired to implement McD's system.

Footwork and decision making are the two main components of what drove his inaccuracy. The decision making will improve with experience hopefully (it should and Allen is a smart hard working guy, no reason to believe it won't) but the footwork is where it becomes interesting. Allen seemed to be improving in that regard in camp and in pre-season. But he is under duress a lot and in a different environment now in the regular season and while it still seems he has improved from college we aren't seeing quite the same progression he showed in camp and pre-season. I think the pressure is impacting that but as other posters pointed out he had some inaccurate throws on plays when he wasn't pressured. I think the whole intense experience of starting against good defenses for the first time is impacting him a bit. My hope is that as he just plays more he is able to process the game better and he starts to show more progression in his footwork. I also hope that the defense and the talent around him improve so that he isn't playing from behind and trying to do too much.

I would have still held onto AJ, I think AJ would have been a competent game manager that maybe could have gotten them through the rough first half of the schedule. I was never fooled by NP, he did the exact same **** last year and stunk it up. NP is flat out unplayable and will not be on an NFL roster next year. AJ I thought could have at least been a decent QB. Allen is baptism by fire for better or worse. I do think they should find a vet backup just in case. I don't ever want to see NP play, he is just one injury away from playing and that's embarrassing.