Thurman#1

The reason most successful QBs started their rookie seasons isn't that it served them well. It's simply that almost nobody drafted high does NOT start much or at all their rookie seasons. Except Mahomes. And Aaron Rodgers. And Jordan Love. And Jalen Hurts. And Phillip Rivers. And Drew Brees. And Carson Palmer. And Brett Favre. Tom Brady wasn't drafted high, but not playing early sure didn't hurt him. The exceptions, um, had some pretty good success.

Nah, they're not "definitely one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL." That's an opinion. Not an unreasonable one, but it's arguable. It would be just as easy to say something less provocative but more nuanced and reasonable. Something recognizing that running QBs have been killing us, but that when you throw out QB runs we are more middling than awful. And that the teams we have faced include three of the top 11 running teams in the league. Also worth pointing out that the Bills have generally started most years under McDermott looking poor against the run and have gotten better as the year went by and guys stopped making so many gap fill mistakes. Not to mention that 12th in yards per drive is good and that 22nd in points per drive is below average but not awful, and that yards are a better indication of how the defense is doing, while points per drive is significantly more about the whole team, as with points, field position is hugely important. Better being bad at defending the run than the pass, particularly with our offense putting opponent offenses under so much pressure. And again, this is all without Hairston, without Milano, without Oliver, without Hoecht and Ogunjobi, and with rookies spending a lot of time playing early in the year, when they're most likely to be a bit overwhelmed.

Yeah, that's how statistics work, Richard. There will be a few outliers who wildly exceed expectations. But if you use that fact to pretend that all guys picked late should perform like those few outliers and that they're disappointments if they don't reach that standard, you're mostly just courting disappointment. Look at the average guy picked later and you should expect performance that is about average for that level. Groot is at that level and probably a bit higher. If you want a guy who performs like the guys you mention, or for instance Aidan Hutchinson or Miles Garrett or Nick Bosa or the younger Joey Bosa or JJ Watt or Khalil Mack or Chandler Jones or Von or Micah Parsons or Will Anderson or Travon Walker or, well, there aren't that many of that kind of guy. And the majority of them can be found in one place. You want any kind of high percentage chance, you'd better pick from about #20 or higher.

We know because the tape shows it. That's the bottom line. He hasn't quite been himself this year, apparently because of the bone bruise, but he's been a really terrific edge setter as a Bill. Never been a great sack artist, but he's not paid like a great sack artist. Is he worth the 15th highest AAV for an edge defender? When his contract will slide further and further down over the next few years? Yeah, he is. He isn't paid as an elite edge, or even close. He's paid for what he is, a good player, who hopefully will look better if the Bills can have some more pressure from the other side and from DTs like Deone and Sanders as they learn what it takes to make it in the NFL.

$1500 a year, delivered? Where do you live, Papua, New Guinea?

I do understand common sense. And trolling. Good riddance indeed.

I'd argue it's relatively unlikely they are considering trading for him. I base that on the fact that they still have a ton of time left to re-structure. They are indeed keeping their options open there. IMO they're loving having three guys who can really play at TE. Gives them chess pieces, and allows them to run three TE formations, which they've already done quite a bit, with great success so far.

Yup. But he's smaller than those guys. Players get hurt. Littler RBs used more tend to get hurt at higher rates and wear down faster. Travis Henry? There's a blast from the past. You mean Derrick, right? Derrick has been extremely healthy over his long career, missing significant time in one year of his career entering his tenth year. Derrick Henry missed almost no time his first five years. Bucky Irving has not been so lucky, and his size likely is part of the reason for that. Irving had 207 carries last year, exactly the same amount Cook had. And only about forty more snaps than Cook had as well. I'm hoping they can ramp their use of Cook back down more towards what it was last year. But I do agree that Davis hasn't looked as good so far this year. They may feel forced to use Cook a lot based on the state of the RB room rather than what they would like if things looked better there.

Great stuff, Shaw. It really is different from the old days when teams had more time to get ready for the early weeks of the season. It really does seem that these days the team has to come to understand it's identity during those first 4 - 7 weeks or so. And that you just don't know what you're getting before then, even if you think you do.

Because they haven't "haven't gotten it done." Rousseau for one is a good player who's getting it done. Top 30 is sacks last year despite not having a guy on the other side to take some attention away. One of the best in the league at setting the edge. We'd all love him to be a top five or ten sacker, but that's not a reasonable expectation for a guy picked at #30. He earned his extension. You seem to be blaming the performance of the whole defense on the guys who got extensions, which again is unreasonable. You can expect them to play their own positions well. Which they are. And it ain't as if any of them are now super high-paid for their positions. You can't blame Oliver because we had problems at safety and CB and LB injuries, it ain't defensible.

Samuel's a gimmick/gadget guy. And he's also an actual WR that can run routes. He's done both in his career. The Bills seem to want him more as a gadget guy, but he's also run routes for us.

Sorry, man, the idea's dumb. We won't be facing the Chiefs in the playoffs with this defense. Because if the return of Hoecht, Ogunjobi, Big Ed, Milano and Hairston doesn't make them demonstrably not "this defense," then the further maturation of the rookies who are already playing certainly should for anyone with a lick of common sense. I hear they've got this mushroom coffee, to help wean you off caffeine? Supposed to not be that bad. And yes, you're the one trolling. 'Nuff said for me on that.

Seriously? Good lord, dude, not even slightly close. Something to watch? Yeah, sure, though pretty much everything is. But is his seat hot? Hell, no. The idea's ridiculous. Again, if you look at the defensive performance in the playoffs, it's good. Very good. Except against the Chiefs. That's where the problem is.

Yeah, and they missed the Super Bowl last year by one play through smoke and mirrors. It's pretty clear you're trolling, but if you're not, consider giving up the coffee, dude.

Yup, unbelievably good. 4-0, by the way. But no, they wouldn't do any of this article's moves, I don't think. None look particularly good for this tea.

Yes!! An extension at a bit lower level.

By that reckoning, Spencer Brown was a major disappointment. Not a single snap in his first four weeks, though healthy. Clearly, we never should have drafted him.

Harrison Phillips started most of his third year here. And it's really not fair to try to judge rookies on whether they'll be good or not. If you did, Deone Walker for one looks pretty damn good so far. But again, that also is early. Fair enough, though, that DE has been his weakest area in his draft record.

Wait, you mean Beane made two bad draft picks? In the second round? Yeah, he clearly needs to be fired. Sure, they just missed the Super Bowl last year, but still, two missed 2nd rounders, hey, that's really case closed. * Sigh *

Actually found a Reddit thread on him about how he did a good job holding even with bad snaps. This is a Bills kind of guy.

Your take is that "it is reasonable to expect a 3rd round pick that is not injured to be dressing on game day and playing in some capacity"? Despite the fact that seven others have 0%? Yeah, two of them are IR'd. But would they have played if they weren't on IR? No way to know. Despite the fact that it's historically always been harder to find playing time on better teams? Despite the lack of data on how many of those other snaps might have been special teams, or results of other players being injured? Despite no way to know whether the ones who played played terribly or well, or whether they might have cost their team a game, or been an integral part of a win? Yeah, that is a result of your pre-conceptions. Four games into the career, that is completely nuts. Four games in, about all that can reasonably be taken from any data about this, really, is that stuff happens. That mountains can be made from data that is statistically insignificant. And that within three years or so we'll know how the picks turned out.

We are in no way laboring to move the ball. Any more than anyone else, anyway. This offense is deadly. And it's not just points. We're second in the league in yards per game, and less than half a yard per game out of first. Second in points, and only one PPG out of first. Yeah, we'll struggle against Spagnola/Fangio. So does everyone. Pretending that what we're doing on offense "doesn't work," is nuts. Flat-out nuts!! Lack of draft resources? A 3rd plus for Amari Cooper. The #33 pick for Keon. What we have needed, and apparently did a pretty good job of acquiring this year, was a pass rush that could hurry Mahomes.

0ct. 15: Bills trade for Amari Cooper Oct. 20: Amari Cooper plays 19 snaps for the Bills Oct. 27: Amari Cooper plays 38 snaps for the Bills No, I don't think there's a serious chance of this happening. He doesn't seem like a guy who would fit will in this everybody eats framework. But McDermott doesn't make vets earn it. Rookies, yes. Vets, no, if they can memorize the plays quickly enough.

This.

We are very effective in play action. But Josh doesn't like it. For it to meet the official definition of play action, the QB has to line up under center, turn around as he drops back and fakes to the back. That means he has to take his eyes away from downfield. Josh doesn't like doing that on pass plays.