Thurman#1

Some of the best slot WRs in the league and where they were drafted: Tyler Boyd 2nd round Christian Kirk 2nd round Randall Cobb 2nd round Jerry Jeudy 1st round Chase Claypool 2nd round Parris Campbell 2nd round Curtis Samuel 2nd round Cooper Kupp 4th round but would have been a fantastic value well into the top half of the 1st Deebo Samuel (33 of 43 in the slot last year) 2nd round It just simply ain't so that you don't draft slots in the first or second. They're rare in the first, but most of the best of them came precisely in the 2nd.

You're seriously distorting, or at least exaggerating, what Aaron Quinn said. He didn't say "fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away," as you paraphrase it here. Nonsense. He said that "fans need to adjust their expectations," which surely means that fans expect too much as rookies, but does NOT mean that fans expect them to play close to 100% of their potential right away. Frankly, Bills fans absolutely do expect too much from rookies, particularly rookies stepping into a very strong roster. Edmunds was very good right from scratch. Got a ton better as time passed. If he wasn't good enough for the fans, that's because they had nutty expectations. There's a reason he's now the 4th best-paid off-ball LB in football in AAV, behind only Roquan, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner. "Notably poor in run defense" is absolute and utter nonsense whether you're talking about his Bills career or his rookie year. He did take some bad angles that first year getting used to the speed of the game and the Bills run fills system while having to call the defenses. Still was very good, though. Fair enough that "it wasn't a spectacular, pro bowl start." You're certainly right about that. But that's not the bar that was originally raised.

Agreed #27 is a bit high. But Smith-Schuster isn't always a slot. He's versatile and generally runs a lot inside and out. 40% slot last year according to this: https://www.patriots.com/news/analysis-how-will-the-patriots-utilize-new-wr-juju-smith-schuster-in-the-offense#:~:text=Although 40 percent of his,the Pats also run regularly. But I think people under-estimate how very valuable a really good slot guy can be to Allen. Beasley for a while there was an absolute third down machine for 1st downs. Having a guy who can get open on those plays really quick is huge for continuing drives.

Shakir can play outside or slot. I'm with Campbell and Sanders just where I am with Downs. I really like them, but not without a trade back.

Rousseau and Edmunds both probably lived up to their draft status as rookies. Neither ripped up the league but both had very good rookie years.

The fact that you're "not really buying into the Gabe injury excuse," says a lot more about what you want to believe than it does about Gabe. Acknowledging Gabe's injury as a factor would hurt your narrative, so you're not buying in. He missed a game. Then had one of his least productive games the next week and his absolute least productive game the week after that. Whether or not you find it convenient to admit, that injury absolutely hurt his productivity. And as has been said again and again (and again), you don't need to use spin to help explain his catch percentage. He has one of the longest average target distance in the league. And the longer the passes that come to you are, no matter who you are, the lower a percentage you're likely to catch. That's what happens with long passes. They're harder to complete. That's simply a fact. Plus another fact inconvenient for your argument, which is that reception percentage is NOT a receiver stat. It's a quarterback and receiver stat. With the defense also making a significant contribution. You're probably right that he's not worth $15M right now. The general consensus right now is around $12 or $13M. That's what he's worth, most likely. He was a #2. That's what he was. Certainly not an elite or great one. But he's a #2. You folks pretending he's a #3 or a #4 are kidding yourselves. An average #2? Yeah, for last year that's probably fair. Does that mean we shouldn't try to improve our WR situation? Hell, no. We should improve ourselves at every position, certainly including WR. Again, I'd love to get Josh Downs in the draft if we can trade down to do it. Or Flowers or Addison at #27 if possible.

Downs is probably somewhere around the 35th - 40th best player. Roughly. Haven't crept into the Bills draft room, so I don't know how they see him, but that seems to be the general consensus. They might not have the chance to trade back. But IMO if they can't trade back, Downs won't be who they go with. Guess we'll see. Again, I like Downs a lot. Just not at #27.

Agreed. It's less replacing Beasley than replacing Beasley's role in 2020 and 2019. Harty and Sherfield might be able to fill that role, or at least to some degree. I wouldn't mind them bringing in a high-level slot guy like Flowers or Downs.

There's no particular reason to believe that beyond the fact that you want to. He is a legit #2. There really isn't a serious question about that. All you have to do is look at his production, understanding that he was injured, out and simply not himself for four weeks. He's very productive. Yeah, he'd be a very good WR 3 or 4. That's because he's a #2. Does he have a limited skill set. Yeah, fair enough. Not super quick and not a good separator because of that. But he also has palpable and obvious strengths. He does really well on more vertical routes, and he's excellent at scramble drills, which is something Josh really feeds on. He stacks really well also once he gets beyond his guy. #2s have a limited skill set. That's why they're not #1s. $10M to $15M will probably be a very reasonable price for him. Probably the low end of that range unless we see further improvement, but we easily might see him get better, particularly if he just stays healthy. We might not be able to afford this without draconian measures elsewhere. If so, he'll be gone. But if we can fit it reasonably, it'd be a good move. And reasonably likely.

I doubt it at #27, frankly. But if they trade back a bit, I'd love it.

It's not a replacement pick. That's just a nice way of spinning things. It's an entirely different pick. If we don't trade for DHop away, we would have TWO 3rd rounders. That's a LOT better than one. This is simply a way to try to spin something people want. It's like people who win some money at the casino saying, "Hey, why not bet it, it's just house money." And it's not. That is a logical fallacy. Once you win it, it's not their money anymore. Assuming we will get a 3rd rounder for Edmunds, that's not a house pick. It's our pick. It's an asset that we can use to pick a player. If we trade it away, we won't have it anymore, we will have lost it, and it will not be replaced.

Not at his current salary. Just wouldn't work out for us. A two is probably too much for me anyway, but without the Cards taking on a ton of his salary, no way.

At #27, there's nobody the rest of the league will be scared of. You're right they wouldn't be scared of Campbell. They wouldn't be scared of anybody that will be left at that point. It's more a matter of how the guy fits in and makes the overall unit better. If we get Campbell, people will likely think it's one of many possible picks that look good right now. And it's not an offensive league. It's an offensive and defensive league, same as it always has been and always will be. The latest example is the Chiefs beating the Bengals 23 - 20 in the AFC championship. Not exactly a wild shootout where the offense does what it wants. Or Bills 24 - Chiefs 20 during the season when we still had Von Miller and Hyde and the D was still healthy. Defense matters. So does offense. They both do. And it's not like to use your pick on a defensive guy you have to sign a contract not to use any other picks or FAs on the offense.

This was worth a chuckle. Hope you're right. He's one I like.

I do hear you, but honestly, every year there are usually somewhere between roughly 15 and 20 first round grades. At 27 we're rarely going to get a guy to fall to us, unless our grading greatly differs from most on someone, which could easily happen, really.

My guess is yes. My hope is they trade back and get some extra picks.

I guess you can say that. He put him on the field. And sooner or later, that'll screw up any QB as time passes. Other than that, though, Allen's not screwed up and McDermott's been fine.

That's interesting. Quoting your own imagination.

Um, yeah. I would never argue that. What I did say, and you appeared to argue (perhaps I misunderstood?) is that reaching full physical readiness automatically means you are there. Being physically completely ready does not mean you are ready. You appeared to call that "playing scared," and that is just wrong. Being physically completely ready is a step. But there's more left. And that includes far more than just getting into football shape. Every person is different. Every body is different. Every mind is different. And every mind-body connection is different. Some people need almost no extra time, but a very large majority need either a little or a lot of time beyond that. If I misunderstood you, I apologize.

Yeah, it's that simple ... if you're desperate to kid yourself. In the real world, though, it's a long complicated process with a ton of steps along the way.

You "fully expect him to be playing at a high level very early on"? I'd argue that falls much closer to "desperately hope" than something that should be fully expected. I certainly hope you're right, but 34 year-olds just do not heal at the same rate as youngsters, or at least very few do. The doctor from Banged Up Bills was on Cover1 within the last couple of days and he doesn't expect him to even play early in the season. The people who call that "playing scared" are eejits. You can be in game shape and still need more time to re-train your brain for confidence in the area. These guys aren't supermen, no matter how much we would sometimes like them to be. The mind-to-muscle link has been broken and it can take some time to get it back, and that process doesn't even really start much till you're given the full go in your physical recovery.

It's not getting fleeced if nobody would have given you more. At least they cleared $5M. And I bet they shopped him around looking for a better deal. I'm not at all convinced, though I do think it's possible. He hasn't looked the same to me, though I didn't All-22 him or anything.

Yes. I remember that too.

This stuff I don't mind at all. To me, making your mock different is totally sensible, because there will absolutely be major surprises in the draft. When people mock the same sorts of things everyone else is, people scream "Oh, he's just copying Kiper," or whoever. I understand that stuff totally. What I hate is what I think Beck Water was angry at, the headline implying that the move in the mock had really happened. Really frustrating. But it's mostly the headline writers rather than the content providers at fault when I get pissed.

I didn't see that, but it would have irritated the crap out of me too.