Thurman#1

You don't know what his best is. He very likely hasn't reached it yet. He's already an average #2. The numbers make that very clear even in a year when he was injured. He might easily get better. He also might not. We'll have to see. The reason it's "so hard for people to understand" is that outside yourself you won't find so many people willing to assume that your guesses and assumptions are facts. And for good reason. Not that they should assume that about my guesses either. We're fans, we're on the outside. We don't know nearly as much as we think we do. About the only thing we can be sure of is that without evidence, we can't be sure of all that much. Sheesh. Hadn't seen that. Good stuff.

Nonsense, as usual. We get it, it's very clear that you didn't think he was worth the price. Thing is, your assumption that because you think something that Beane also thinks it is just plain dumb. First, Beane isn't dumb. And you're accusing him of that here. He's worth his price. That's why he got it. That's why the Bills fully believed he would get more than they could pay in their current salary cap situation. Second, Beane's said it straight out. That they'd love to get him back but they always thought he'd probably get too much. Here's one of many quotations about this: "That’s why he knew well before the former first-round draft pick hit the open market this week that there was probably no way the Bills were going to be able to re-sign the five-year starter. Sure enough, Edmunds landed in Chicago on a massive four-year deal worth $72 million with a staggering $50 million guaranteed. “ 'We stayed in touch with his representatives,' Beane said. 'We thought he was the top linebacker in free agency and all it takes is one team. I don’t know how many were bidding for him; I’m not privy to that. But it’s not a surprise that he got up there. We love him, didn’t want to lose him, but it’s a puzzle piece and unfortunately you just can’t keep them all.'” https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2023/03/17/buffalo-bills-news-brandon-beane-expected-to-lose-tremaine-edmunds/70016451007/ "We’re always wanting to draft, develop, sign our own. Sometimes there’s big-ticket items and you can only pay so many guys. So when you’re talking about a guy that just hit an $18 million (average per year), that’s hard. That meant if you’re going to pay that, then you may say ‘We’re going to lose this other guy or we’re going to move on from him.’ You make decisions. You do the best you can. You don’t want to lose a guy like Tremaine.” https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/observations-brandon-beane-says-bills-loved-didnt-want-to-lose-tremaine-edmunds/article_d5d33518-c455-11ed-b3f1-ff25b721dfde.html That's what they think, that he was worth it but they couldn't pay it. They expected him to get a huge contract, because he's worth it. They couldn't keep all of the players they wanted because of their salary cap situation. "No way they were going to be able to ..." Not that they didn't think it was worth it. You're right, not thinking he is worth it is quite different. That is indeed exactly and precisely the mistake you made. Because it fits your narrative, you assumed Beane must think the same thing. It was a classic case of badly misreading reality. That's how confirmation bias works.

Yeah, they addressed that in the article. "Ertz said one person – on the Eagles’ side of the talks – nixed the deal with the Bills. He would not say who. The most likely candidate probably would be Eagles general manager Howie Roseman." Yeah, nope.

Thanks for posting it. Always wondered what happened there.

Yeah, um, no. Tremaine is now the fourth-highest paid off-ball LB in the league, behind only Roquan, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner. Whether you guys refuse to admit it or just genuinely missed it, Tremaine was a very good LB here and then became an excellent one in his last year. The reason he's not here is because we couldn't afford him.

For 2024, you're saying? I think by then they'll be able to target much better. They'll have a lot more info about what works and what doesn't with the changes they're making with the scheme. At that point if they need an expensive FA, why not pick one who's been primarily an MLB or at least an ILB?

It'll depend on the doctor, which we will never hear about, and the salary, which if the doctor's report is good will likely be fairly high in a year when we have to keep expenses down.

Well, first, here are three that do put Allen ahead of Burrow. Took me a 5 minute google search. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-qb-power-rankings/ https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-qb-rankings/ https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/qb-cheatsheets.php I respect your post, Dingus, thoughtful and reasonable, though I disagree. I follow a lot of non-Bills stuff, but I'm choosy, and offseason nonsense like who's the best at whatever position doesn't have a lot of interest for me. I'm much more interested in how teams are looking like they will perform next year. So I do miss a lot of the stuff you're talking about. As for the people who do put Burrow ahead of Allen, IMO an awful lot of them are talking about right now. Kind of the same way you have to put the SB winning team first in your power rankings in Week 1 the next year. Allen's throwing arm was injured for most of the last half of the year. He wasn't himself, and I think a lot of the rankings reflect that. They're looking at right now, not expected future performance. Among people concerned with future performance, I believe Allen at least holds his own. Probably the biggest group of people specifically looking at future performance is the fantasy folks. And lots of them are putting Allen over Burrow, I learned with another very quick search. Some of that has to do with running probably, though I am very much not a fantasy guy. But probably a lot also is simply that they think he had a bad end of the season and will be better. It seems likely. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/qb-cheatsheets.php https://www.draftsharks.com/dynasty-rankings/qb/all-players/one-ppr https://www.rotostreetjournal.com/2023-fantasy-football-rankings-and-big-board/ https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/36312955/nfl-fantasy-football-rankings-2023-qb-quarterback https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/dynasty-fantasy-football-quarterback-rankings-uncertainty-grows-around-lamar-jackson-and-trey-lance/ The part of the post I originally replied to with such derision was where the guy said Allen was "borderline top five," and "out of the elite tier". That's utter nonsense.

This is kind of cute. Like watching a newborn kitty try to take his first steps.

Yeah, perfectly put.

He's smart enough. But doing that isn't just a matter of being smart. You've got to put yourself in everyone's place. It makes it tougher to be ready for the play, especially if they're running a lot of motion, quick snaps, etc. Milano's forte is explosion, penetration and causing havoc. That might be harder when you're having to think for everyone else before the snap. They might have one of the safeties do it. If they're running different MLBs in situationally, they wouldn't give the dot to them.

I don't see a lot of disrespect for Allen, myself. I mean, clearly the Cincy game was not good for him but everyone has bad games sometimes, absolutely everyone. I'd take Allen over Burrow. I think most would, though Burrow will have a chance to try to change that over time. Worth a double face palm, honestly. This is just a dumb take.

Certainly that could be. But I don't think the Lawrence pick is even the slightest bit of a surprise. Things look the same with Oliver that they did a week ago. IMO they want to keep him. They might be able to. But maybe not. I don't think it's clear, particularly before the season. Even with Poona on board they still don't have anyone under contract through 2024 at DT. I think they'd love to keep Ed, and might be able to.

He is what he is? Polite disagreement there. He could improve or not. He got better each of his first three years, then didn't last year while he fought through ankle problems. IMO it's early in his career for us to think we know what he is. It's not completely clear yet. He is impactful at times, showing flashes of excellence fairly often, but not doing it consistently. Impactful, but not often enough. What he does consistently is play good 3-tech at an above-average level. But shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as the guys above who will get paid in the $20M level. Someone above said he was a bust, and he just isn't. Maybin was picked at #11, and spent only four years in the league. That's a bust. Whitner was picked at #8, a close comparison, and spent 11 years in the league playing safety at an above average level and even managing two Pro Bowls later in his career. That's not a bust. It absolutely is a case of a guy being picked too early. And in retrospect, that's how the Oliver pick looks like it will be remembered (assuming you're right and he is what he showed last season, which again I think is not yet clear). Picked a bit early. Absolutely not a bust. Will probably have a long productive career in the NFL. At the time, picking Ed seemed like a good value. There were serious questions as to whether he'd make it to us, and he did so largely because so many QBs were picked early. Having said that, the narrative was really different before last year. He'd been improving consistently each of his first three years and was looked on as a guy who might take a jump up among the better DTs of the league. He didn't. But at the same time, he quietly fought through ankle problems last year. He might easily take that jump this year if he stays healthy. Or not. We'll have to see.

I heard you out. No.

Oliver isn't a guy who'll get a contract like that, unless he sees vast improvement. If the Bills somehow get a guy who's worth that kind of money, it'll be worth it. They might not be able to afford it, but if they got a guy like that they'd likely do their best to keep him, and it would be worth it if they managed it. Who's worth it? The absolute best DTs, the top five to eight or so. Simmons is certainly one, and he'll get one whether it's with the Titans or another team, a good one. He's elite. He changes games. Again, he's worth it and how good his team is has nothing to do with it. Aaron Donald, without question. And about four others who are coming due about now. Quinnen Williams. Dexter Lawrence, Simmons and Chris Jones. I'm less sure with Daron Payne. He's already got a contract like that, but Washington isn't exactly an organization that has shown good judgment. Not sure there. But the five above deserve contracts like that. Maybe Buckner and Hargrave as well. They're already very close anyway, and they probably deserve to be. In his heyday, Fletcher Cox was worth that, but they weren't paying DTs that way at that time.

Please, Oliver isn't a bust. He's a genuinely good player, impactful. Not worth his draft slot, but very good.

No, just the opposite, I think. It's the new way to build a team. In the old way, a DT just doesn't get that kind of money. Welcome to the new NFL model. DTs are now worth more. So they're getting it.

Agreed. He'd love it if a byproduct of what he wanted to do screwed the Jets. But he wouldn't do it to screw the Jets. He'd do whatever he thought was best for his team.

It's about winning. And we are winning far more than we have for decades, and far more than nearly all NFL teams in this period. Every year, 31 teams are angry and frustrated. We're still in that 31 and not the other one, but the FO has put together a consistently excellent team. They are doing a terrific job.

It's not too clear whether it's you or PFN saying this, but it says, "McGovern’s contract incurs a $3.6 million cap hit in Year 1, which is in line with his value. But after that, it explodes to a functionally guaranteed second-year cap hit of $7.5 million and hits $8 million in Year 3 — an unguaranteed year but a difficult one to cut because he would incur $4 million in dead cap space." Hunh? How is the second year "functionally guaranteed"? It's not, according to Spotrac. If they don't like him they could easily cut him. Wouldn't save any money that year, but would only lose $100K, and would save a lot in 2025. Cutting him before the 3rd year would save them a couple mill. They did give him a signing bonus which will look too big if they don't like him. But they could easily cut him if they want to. My guess is they're going to like him too much to want to cut him.

Greatly doubt they will cut Morse unless serious health problems crop up. If they'd wanted to cut him, they'd have done it before paying him his $1M roster bonus on March 19th. On the same day, $1.36M of his salary became guaranteed, as well. I disagree here. Terrific, no. Good? Yeah, they do.

I'm not sure it's safe to say that. Vegas disagrees, anyway. They have us in the top four right now. Not sure I agree with that, but I'd put us probably top five or six. Last year before the season we were top two.

Nonsense. Every bit of it was deserved last year. Before the injuries the Bills were a wrecking machine. I should say before the injuries, before the mass shooting incident, before Knox's brother died, before a Bills player died on the field ... it goes on and on. But at the beginning of the year they deserved every bit of that hype. This year, particularly with the questions about Von, who is one of the two most critical pieces, significantly less is deserved. They'll have to prove themselves. But still look like one of the four to six best teams in the league.

Weirdly, it's mostly Bills fans who go on and on about 13 seconds being a choke job. Most other folks consider it mostly Mahomes being absolutely sensational and having two terrific receivers in Kelce and Tyreek. Same as they don't blame the Chiefs defense all that much for Allen's heroics in the same game. That was mostly two QBs being simply otherworldly. Not that either D was playing well. But that was one of the all-time best QB performance matchups in NFL history. The Bills and their fans can't look at it the same way if they want to feel they have a chance the next time. But just as we don't blame the Chiefs D much for the Bills offensive success in that game, most folks give the Chiefs offense and Butler most of the responsibility there for that long field goal. "Ultimate choke job in NFL history"? Um, no. It just wasn't. Not that it was good or even OK either. But you are wildly wildly overstating there.