Alphadawg7

Well for it not to be a rankings list, everything matters and I did mention that in all my previous posts about that stuff. To be fair, didn't see the "same salary" caveat in the OP, but that kind of makes this exercise a waste of time. He didn't say ignore age or other things though, just salary. But you can't discuss where someone will go in a draft as a "different" topic than just another rankings list if you remove all the things that would make it different than a rankings list. So, still sticking to it being a draft, I still stand by he would be one of the first 30 taken even if you remove the one caveat of salary because age, personality, chemistry, intangibles, etc were not removed and would still all be in play on discussing where they would get drafted. And that still has him going in the first 30 WR's in my book as well. Again all good

To be clear, I said several posts back 1 more target per game. Not sure who is talking 50 more targets, that is WR1 territory and I have not seen anyone suggest that and certainly not me. And again, at 100 targets there is already a mix of route types, to assume to add 17 more targets over a season means it has to predominantly come from one route type is not a logical way to estimate or predict outcomes. There is no way around that no matter how much you want to insist it seems to only be possible via bubble screens. Literally everyone expected a drop across the board in efficiency on double the volume, including me. I am not even factoring in his 2023, like 0 factor even though those are real stats he did achieve, I have given him 0 value for them despite him achieving them when in reality some sort of blended between the two is more than warranted. I am still removing them entirely. I think you have lost a bit of what this Topic started as - The OP poised this a DRAFT (in caps to emphasize, not yell as all is good) - and not a 1 year FFL draft, but an NFL draft to build a roster. In a draft, age, fit, style, tangibles, etc all get weighed. Tyreek Hill is on the final year or two of his career...Shakir is in his prime. A team drafting to build a roster isn't going to draft $30M WR at age 31 (who is also a bad teammate and overall POS - yes things that will be considered in a draft) over a young Shakir still ascending in his prime making $15M per and with his long list of intangibles (dirty work, great hands, clutch, playmaker with ball in his hands, good and willing blocker, etc). Its just not gonna happen, at least it shouldn't. This is NOT a rankings list (again highlighting not yelling), this is where do they go in an NFL draft if the league redrafted today. The reality is there are a lot of TE's that would go ahead of a lot of the WR's in the 20's and 30's too, but this was only about Shakir and how many WR's go before him in a draft. And that is a large disconnect I think in our views of both Shakir and the other WR's. I am staying true to the task of the OP and treating this as a GM would who is going to factor all the intangibles, roster makeup, draft strategy, costs, age etc. Otherwise we can kill this thread and everyone can move back to the rankings thread. Again, you are ranking not drafting see above. Not only are you trying to rank instead of the draft task of this thread, but I also don't agree with your limited view on him. People said this to me when he was a 5th round pick - they said this to me before he broke out - they keep trying to say this to me after he broke out. Shakir keeps proving to be more than that, and I don't personally think he has fully peaked yet either. But its all good, all individual perspective and all just a make believe draft anyway. Cheers

You see - right here you just kind of again said all of the extra targets would be those bubble screens. We are only talking about 1 more target per game, and you just said 1 or 2 more bubble screens. His ratio to bubble screens to other passes is already factored into his 100 targets and efficiency. Therefore, if you assume the same target distribution, which you should, then the per target efficiency scales with the extra target, not decreases. But the way you just phrased again is increasing the targets by increasing just bubble screens essentially and I don't think that is reasonable way to estimate his target increase. I said that 2024 is probably his floor on things like YPC because of the increased short yardage throws (by strategic design) vs his elite efficiency in 2023 being helped by lower volume and many big plays. You and others keep wanting to further lower his floor as if he has no ability or talent above doing more bubble screens. This is really the spot where we disagree, the assumed type of targets on any above his pace last year. To be clear, I didn't say he was a focal point guy, but that doesn't mean he cant be a significant player in an offense still. And what I meant by true efficiency is that no one season ever determines a players efficiency, and that his 2024 was likely more indicative of his floor, and 2023 was more indicative of an outlier with the combo of lower volume and several big plays within that volume. When I said that was more about what his efficiency looks like over a period of seasons, not just picking any one season. Its all good, all discussion, and all subjective. I just think people are short changing just how good he is at what he does and that he is being pigeon hold a bit too much into this bubble screen stuff. He was on pace for 110 targets here last year but he missed a little time with the injury. I think his sweet spot for say max targets is probaby 110-130 in an offense, and in our offense that puts him just at or over 1000 yards, and in an offense where the rest of the field is opened up a bit more with help elsewhere, I think his efficiency goes up and totals as well. That being said - My hope is that we see guys like Keon, Palmer, Kincaid, and maybe even Moore prove they need targets this year, and that results in fewer targets for Shakir. But let me be clear, not because Shakir isn't good enough for these targets, I say that because I want to see these other guys also be good which would make our offense even better if so. I still think he would be one of the first 30 with all the intangibles he brings along with ability and talent compared to a lot of the other guys in that range who are either older or blend too much with the next 20 or so guys still available.

Yeah to be fair, I was born in 76, so I watched Payton more in the later years when the Bears were "Daaaaa Bears" lol

No worries. But there is no reason to assume the additional targets would all be more bubble screens. He has 100 targets, that is a large baseline, that includes a balance of types of passes and routes he runs. You can't now say to get more targets it only has to be more bubble screens. And again, that is exclusively tied to our offense as well and the type of plays we run for him. But a lot of you talk about him like he is really only capable of one type of play at high volume in the bubble screens, yet he has 2 years of showing he can make plays, and hes made a lot of them, all over the field, not just bubble screens. He has elite YAC ability, so Brady designed some quick strike plays to use that, but you and others now seem to hold that against him as if that is his only primary use, which it wasnt. And keep in mind, that he was also the best WR on the team last year, so he was doing this without some bigger threats around him, especially with Keon getting hurt, Kincaid being hurt, and Cooper doing almost nothing. Playing along side another WR and more opens up for him - and in 2023, with Diggs, Davis, and our first round pick Kincaid it was Shakir who led the team in yards receiving after Brady took over showing how much more effective he can be with some other attention around him and not having to rely on just bubble screens. Now keeping up the 2023 efficiency was not realistic, thanks to how elite it was combined with sample size. BUT - It is MORE than fair to assume his true efficiency most likely lies somewhere between 2023 and 2024 where a lot more short throws were brought in as a weapon and helped bring some of the YPC down but still had strong YAC numbers showing his abilities. But I didn't even do that - I still used his floor of 2024 only. So again, this notion his efficiency would keep tanking further with each additional target after a large sample size is just not realistic and IMO is short changing his talent and ability

But I didn't advocate or use his efficiency in 2023. I said his 2024 season is probably his floor. The suggestion by the other poster that it continually drops without some sort of base floor where ability, talent, etc mean nothing is not reality. So again, to suggest his efficiency is even worse slightly expanding his existing role off a large sample size of 100 targets in 2024, which already establishing a more than reasonable expectation of production, is just not realistic.

You wont get an argument for me against Payton as before he retired he was my favorite player as a kid. But - in terms of OL, Sanders maybe had the worst OL I have ever seen someone be elite still running behind. I think what makes Sanders the GOAT in my eyes is what he accomplished on mediocre teams, with OL's that were not very good and mediocre QB's around him. Payton won a SB playing on a team that is often listed as one of the best teams ever as well. But again, Payton has a legit case, so won't argue against him. I am still in the Sanders camp firmly, but fully recognize that is subjective and that Payton is a worthy challenger to the top spot.

I agree and yet disagree at the same time. I agree that in a smaller sample size like 2023 the stats are expected to level off on higher volume. But I disagree that there isn't a floor for that. In other words, what you are implying is that theortecially with enough targets his average yards per catch could drop to 1% and his catch rate drop to 1% on a long enough timeline of target counts. You are stating that it will continue to drop at the same rate regardless of his abilities as a player, but as a direct function of targets, that by default every single extra target further degrades efficiency. Shakirs target share was large enough in 2024 to establish that is probably his floor. So I do not agree that his efficiency just perpetually degrades with each target above 100. In fact, his efficiency on things like yards per catch were also hit not because he was less effective (look at his YAC stats), but because Brady ran a ton of screens and passes at the LOS in 2024 compared to 2023 to take advantage of his YAC abilities. So it wasn't a lack of ability that lowered his YPC in 2024, it was the style we used him based on the design of the plays, makeup of the offense, etc. And while I expect them to still incorporate a lot of that into the offense as he is very dangerous with the football in his hands, there is no reason to suddenly expect his YPC and stuff to just continually decline, that isnt how it works. In fact, its almost a certainty in another style of offense it goes back up because he has concretely proved he is excellent after the catch, so if he gets more of those LOS passes 5-10 yards past the LOS instead, its going to make a relevant increase in his YPC. So yeah, I don't agree with this premise it will keep getting worse because that just isn't how it works.

Agree he is up there and has a case - I think the 5 guys who have the best case for GOAT are: Sanders, Payton, Sayers, Brown, and Campbell. For me, its no question Sanders, but that is subjective and my personal opinion of course. But I have no qualms with anyone making a case for the others. The one I always push back on (and left off my list) is Emmitt. He is an all time great, but overrated. He benefitted from the best OL in the league and one of the best in history. From a pure talent perspective, he isn't in the same tier as these other guys IMHO. But no qualms if anyone makes cases for these 5 guys, just for me, Sanders is clear 1 and everyone else each has a strong case for #2.

The GOAT list starts and stops with Barry Sanders. There has never been a runner as gifted or could do the things he could do. There is a long list vying for #2 - but Barry is the GOAT IMHO. As far as Thurman goes, once you get into past generations, the few that get spoken about generationally are the ones that remain in the debate for the top spot (Barry, Brown, Campbell, Emmitt, etc). For the record, I don't think Emmitt was top 5, he benefitted a lot from the dominate OL, but he has the stats so he remains in the convo for many). Thurman has no claim for the top spot, not even top 5 really, and doesn't even make some peoples top 10 all time. That is why he doesn't get the due you think he should. He is a HOFer and all time great, but when you are not a top 5 guy, and don't even have a clear claim to top 10 all time, you are just not going to get talked about in the next generations and eras of the game as much.

Hahaha didn't think about that - yeah that would be annoying lol

Fair points, but I think the difference in opinions here is I don't think Shakir got those targets by default of no one else being here, I think he got those targets because his ability warrants it. With Diggs, Davis, and our first round pick that year in Kincaid on the roster, it was Shakir who led the Bills in receiving under Brady once he took over the offense. Shakir has the role and contract he has because they see him as deserving of those targets and delivering when called upon over and over again. This isn't a JAG who is putting up production because there is no one else and just getting production by volume and default, he is a major part of the offense by choice and design. To assume no other teams would value him in a similar way we do is just not something I can buy into. Shakir has the role he has because he is very good at what he does. I suggest go watch his 2023 and 2024 highlights again - all players have a highlight real, but few have the kind of plays he makes and the frequency he makes them. So I get where you are coming from, and not saying you are wrong or not, but you and I just view his value, abilities, etc differently and I think there are multiple coaches and GM's who will see him in a similar light personally. Again, all subjective - just my 2 cents

Bahahaha well played

All good, this is all subjective. But I think you are definitely undervaluing just how good he is at what he does. But it will be based on the role he has (like many players). And if a team thinks or believes he is good enough to be one of their higher target players like the Bills do, he will get the targets to produce. If he ends up in on a team like Cincy, he isn’t getting 120-130 targets with Chase and Higgins there. But he goes to a team where he is one of there main targets like he is in Buffalo, he will produce like such. So again, it depends on what team is drafting and how they see him in their offense. And once you get into the 20’s I think a lot of the other WRs blend together and don’t stand out where Shakir stands out at the slot position. Like I said there a bunch of TEs that would go ahead of a lot those WR’s too. But not every team makes the same choices. So this was poised as a draft - those factors will play into the draft decisions as teams run various types of offenses and cover different traits. And in a real draft, there are teams and GMs who are going to covet the overall skill set, intangibles, etc that he brings along with his overall talent and then grab another outside guy later as it’s pretty deep in the middle of the pack area of those rounds at outside WR. Just my 2 cents

Not saying he would be a target monster, saying he would see an increase in targets on a team who spreads the ball less and runs less than we do. He got 100 targets here because is a good player, and with the injury and his pace was 110 targets had he played all 17. Even just 1 more target per game puts him at 127 targets eslewhere in an offense spreading the ball less between targets and running. I think its more than reasonable he could and would see an increase of 1 more target per game in another offense. His pace was 110 targets here - with 1 more per game elsewhere that takes him to 127 targets, which based on his 8.21 yards per target last year, that puts him at 1050 yards on its own. Now factor in how often we ran short routes/screens for hm just to use his RAC ability...if just a handful of those targets move to be 5-10 yards down field he could easily be looking at 1100 - 1200 range on those 127 targets. So people are underestimating what he would be on another team with literally just 1 more target per game in a less spread the ball offense.