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Guys... can someone find Thurm's sponsor... he's clearly losing it

Personally, I can't even pretend to have any kind of meaningful opinion - I just don't watch that much college football. But you're absolutely right that a lot goes into whether or not a guy succeeds beyond his innate talent. In addition to the factors you mention, there's also the intangibles of, how does this kid react to becoming an overnight millionaire? It doesn't help that to my observation with HS athletes, really talented athletes tend to get special treatment and the scope of it only gets bigger as they move up into college etc. I think that's one reason why the draft, even the top of the first round where the physical talent is undoubtedly elite, tends to be such a crap shoot. You can measure their vertical leap, but not their heart or their dedication.

⁰ I said drafting one of the first 3 WRs. In 2019 Deebo was #3 Interesting perspective, but honest question, do you really think it we keep going back 15-20 years that trend keeps up? We can take the time to do it as long as you acknowledge your flawed premise. Of course I'd do the same. I didn't include Ruggs as a hit, so why does the fact that I brought it up make you so upset? I actually think listing those QBs works against you

Yeah, it must be $6M only with unpublicized incentives. Salary is $1.21M, $1.5M cap hit, but fully guaranteed. It's basically backup money. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/lael-collins-17403/

Literally wants Shakir to show WR1 potential and talent. JA17 has told Beane as much, so Beane tells us. Those two believe they can pull this off. Make the fans think… Okay, there’s our guy, right there! That’s as the roster stands right now. He knows damn well that Samuel better be a good signing. Everyone else is absolutely nobody. He knows the fans know. Beane is riding with Josh on this one for the Shakir bump to kept the fans from drooling 24/7 over a new WR1 talent. But, Beane knows better too. He says this thing to calm us, but is hard at work to get a top WR in this draft. Could you imagine if Beane goes into next season with this WR group + a 2nd round pick. Unless that rookie is an instant game piece, with impact, We better have an improvement ACROSS THE BOARD everywhere else. Better have. RD1 is Edge, RD2 would have to be WR AND S. I think if the Bills pick a second round WR they would have to acquire another R2 pick spent on a R1 talent guy at DLine or S. I don’t know how they get another R2 pick. We have zero players we’d trade for a pick that high. I’m not even sure we have any players worth a R2 pick in a total hypothetical. Maybe Dawkins or Kincaid to a team that’s desperate. I’m not saying the Bills should do that… I don’t think they could even if they wanted to. Beane’s getting us a WR. I’ll guarantee it.

Our ESPN reporter Alaina Getzenbirg piece on Josh's presser https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39970133/bills-josh-allen-thanks-departed-stefon-diggs-hard-work I dunno. My kid, who is a bit younger than Josh and Stef, seems to very rarely make actual phone calls and prefer to do everything by text or DM So I wouldn't read too much into "text vs phone call", but I think it's been pretty clear for some time, for other reasons, that they haven't been tight.

Not sure why you keep saying "2 receivers". My point is simple: 1. Can't believe everything Beane is saying right now. A couple years ago he mentioned counting on Boogie to take hold of a starting DE spot. Then proceeded to sign Von. Same example about talking up Dane, then drafting Elam. He's always propping his current guys and expecting more of them. 2. Beane is going to draft more WRs. Likely 2. So when you say we have "2 receivers", that won't be the case in 9 days. Our core group for passing targets is likely to be: Samuel, Kincaid, Rd1 pick, Shakir, Rd 4 pick, Cook, Knox As to who those 2 draft picks will be, that's anyone's opinion as of now. My "hope" is they take: Rd 1: Worthy (if there), or Franklin Rd4: Javon Baker Gives us 2 legitimate downfield threats, both guys would be versatile to move around the offense (as Beane/Brady seem to want). They complement each other's skill sets well, ie: Worthy or Franklin are separators/lean/rely on speed and quicks.... Baker is stronger built/capable blocker/50 50 downfield guy, with good speed. So when Beane makes it sound like the Justin Shorters or Andy Isabellas of our team are to be relied on, that's just GM speak to me. We've seen nothing from any of the guys you listed that provides what we need. More likely they're battling for the last WR spot with Hollins, or against each other if we keep 6. Either way, not a significant impact to our success in 2024

Kincaid is going to be the #1 option in this offense. People are making too big of deal of this #1 receiver stuff. Yeah we need another WR but it doesn’t need to be a 150 target type receiver

I agree on that. But I still think Odunze and Nabors will be clearly better than most of this class. I’m not sold on MHJ actually. And of course a lot has to do with where guys get drafted, their situations, their teams, their QBs, their coaches. Someone will do a lot better in Buffalo than they would on Vegas for example imo.

The fact that you tried to make a guy who was an All-Pro twice as a punt returner really says everything here. If you're going to make an argument, don't reach. We need a #1 or #2 WR... not a punt returner. Focus on that

I thought a ridiculous trade 25 years ago was also a bit dumb. I get the point. But you made a better one. The Mahomes trade really sticks out to me here. 27th overall, a 3rd, and a first the next year. Not sure if the trade chart has changed that much since 2017 or not but if that’s still the going rate that’s an easy yay for me if Odunze makes it to 10 or in that range. And I get we don’t have a 3rd this year, so maybe 1st this year, 2nd this year, and then you could possibly get away with a 2nd and something else next year. I don’t follow the charts and I’m not about to. So many deals get done on draft day there’s no guarantee everyone follows those charts. And if the pros are right that there are only so many draftable guys in this draft, it would make sense to get one of the best ones. JMO.

More, looking at the lists of top three guys in the draft you put up, one question occurs. How many Super Bowl winners are there? Again, a team that gives up top-level draft assets to trade up for a top WR has never won a Super Bowl. Never.

I agree with you completely on the need for elite talent. Where the debate seems to lie is with what is the best strategy to acquire same? As I pointed out to @transplantbillsfan above, the "hit rate" from taking one of the top-3 WR in the 1st round, and taking 1 of the top-2 WR in the 2nd round, are practically identical - 8/14 vs 6/10, 57% vs 60%. And some of those 2nd round players are arguably elite WR talent - AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr. If I were guessing which way the frog will jump, my guess is that Beane will trade up slightly and draft a WR in the 1st. But I don't think it would be closing the door on the potential for elite talent to trade back slightly and get a guy at the top of the 2nd, either.

Unbelievable how you miss the point. You look ONLY at the receivers. Thing is, trades have two sides. You get something. And you give stuff up. And yet not a single word about the whole reason why massive trades consistently make teams worse. Yes, you get, on the average, better players further up. Um, DUH! Nobody argues you tend to get better players further up. Your post is precisely what you get from a person like you. You're not a Bills fan, you're a Josh Allen fan. So it doesn't even occur to you to address the stuff you have to give up, because it just doesn't matter to you. How Josh is directly affected is all that you think about. Point is, it matters to the team what you have to give up. Massey-Thaler and all the other studies say the same thing about this. Simply, trading up and giving up major draft assets like extra ones and twos is a horrible idea unless you are trading up for a potential franchise QB. Trades like this produce overall poor results at a high rate. Every study says the same thing. Every single one.

What a terrible example! At least use the 2011 Julio Jones trade. That's worse case scenario. Also look at the Mahomes and Jameson Williams trade up. Good grief at least be a little more realistic with your examples.

It doesn't look like I'm going to be taking my talents to Boston College anytime soon.

I certainly agree with you on that last point, and about Kincaid/Shakir as ascending players. But as I said previously, 2 receivers isn't enough. We need at least 4 (IMO). I can't disagree on evidence as to any of the guys on that list being capable, but Beane did make the analogy to Terrel Bernard and Boy Howdy, this time last year if anyone asked whether any of Terrel Bernard, Baylon Spector, or Tyrell Dodson were capable of holding down starting linebacker spots (much less Dodson and Bernard starting together), I would have said "Hell to the NO!". Wouldn't you? And sure, he may have been using typical pre-draft GMspeak to which people who count (other front offices) doubtless pay no attention so, why?

Great that you put so much work into this, but how are you getting to 60% hit rate over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WR in the 1st round of the draft? That's 14 WR in the last 5 years (2019 saw only 2). By your assessment, that's 8 hits. 8/14 = 57%. Now that's better than a coin flip, but not too much. Now let's look at what happens if you just draft one of the first 2 WR in the 2nd round of the draft? That's 10 WR over the last 5 years. By your assessment, that's 6 hits, so 6/10 = 60%. That's actually BETTER than what you would get if you just drafted one of the first 3 WR in the first round!!!!! So according to your data - we would be just as good or better if we TRADE BACK! AJ Brown is the best WR in the 2019 draft, with Deebo Samuel a close 2nd. Sorry, but once you start what-if'ing, like "what if Ruggs didn't go to prison?" respectfully, we're entering the realm of fancy. What if Jerry Jeudy had a decent QB throwing to him instead of Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and The Ghost of Russell Wilson? What if Shenault has better QB than Mayfield, Darnold, and Bryce Young?

No argument here, about needing more weapons on offense (regarding your point on prior years). All in agreement there. I just don't think any of the guys you listed are capable, and also think this is typical "Beaneisms" this time of year. Kincaid/Shakir are the only young ascending players. Question is still out about their ceiling/development this season. Beane would be smart to take 2 WRs in one of the deepest classes in quite a while.

My coworker told me about a game he called his “Jump to Conclusions Mat”. This is a worse idea. Much, much worse.

The issue with trading down is the Chiefs get 1st dibs on a WR before us then.

A visual argument against excessive quinoa

There... I fixed it for you with the bolded. Buffalo at this moment only has 2 true NEEDS on the team. A WR and RB for the roster. The rest of the things you had there arenwants... McBeane may disagree. You said Center. Did you think Beane was lying about McGovern shifting to Center? You said Safety. That's just a want on your part. We have 2 Safeties on the team who have started many NFL games and 2 backups who have been in the system for a while. You also neglected the $10m CAP space we get June 1st.

This is really rich. You stated to someone else [edit: @ToGoGo] "You can try to attack my character, but that just makes it clear you've run out of arguments. The difference between me and people like you is that I back up my arguments. Do you even watch the Bills? Josh peaked in 2020 if you've been watching the games, and the stats back it up." Do you even listen to yourself? You are asked to explain what, in particular, of the pro-football-reference Josh Allen stats you posted show he peaked in 2020 and hasn't developed since then? And you respond by what....attacking my character!!!! We will all note that you have categorically refused to explain exactly what it is about the pro-football-reference stats you posted that shows Allen peaked in 2020 and has not developed or improved since then. This puts your statements in the realm of dogma. It's also pretty clear that when someone resorts to the ad-hominem (attacking me, calling me intellectually dishonest) instead of actually providing information, they aren't actually depending on stats and facts to back up their argument - to quote you "that just makes it clear you've run out of arguments". I'm not going to defend my posting style or responses, I think the amount of actual research I put into posts here and my willingness to both acknowledge correction AND other people's valid counter points is well established and speak for themselves.

So funny story... my eyes are apparently going bad and sometimes I look at these posts on my 8 inch tablet. I make the text bigger, which cuts off usernames. It's kinda nice because I read every post without bias against the name. As soon as I got to the bolded line, I knew it would be only a couple posters... you were one of them