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Oh, absolutely. Relief? I'd guess mild relief mixed with knowing that things will get tougher, at least for a while, without having him on the field. Yeah, Allen is really great with the media, really really good. I believe I remember that when he was a kid his father would pretend to be a reporter and interview Josh and his brother to get them used to this. I suspect that's a good deal of the reason he's so good.

Mmmhmmmm.... remember this Thurm when talking about QBs having an Elite weapon in almost all of the last 5 Super Bowls... both winners and losers???? @Thurman#1"Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite." Love the way you ran away from that conversation right after me calling you out on Kupp, Evans and Kelce not being Elite. I see that you keep responding to me... maybe I'll read them, but right now...

We've only got three picks above the fifth round now, before we start trading up. Some fifths and sixth are very likely to make it. Surely, you're right that not all eleven draftees will, but there's no reason to think we'll only keep three drafted rookies.

That's what 'news media' is. I guess people still watch out of habit or whatever, I stopped watching any of it 4 years ago and have no regrets other than not stopping earlier.

Yup. Two posts in a row from you with zero substance. Par for the course for you, Transie. The facts are inconvenient for you, so just distract.

Josh Allens personal life is the reason a McD's defense could't stop a peewee team in the playoffs? Interesting.

Yeah, his headline was "A visual argument against trading down & for trading up." And then the post gave absolutely nothing about trading at all, addressing only whether guys drafted higher tend to succeed at higher (though not necessarily high) rates.

It's always the snide little comments like this that give the whole game away. He's had a single serious relationship that's still active with one actress, and now he's "chasing tail" and "young hollywood starlets", plural. It's flat out Savior Edwards/ Airseven territory. Just completely unnecessary digs.

I've said this three times now - this dude suddenly decided to go full heel the exact moment that Airseven disappeared shortly after last season ended. Either it's the same dork or Bull's running with the fact that his primary competition is gone

He's got 8 Super Bowl rings.

Wow. Intelligent response. So full of substance. What a surprise, a big nothing from you.

Why is stupid sh*t like this even tolerated?

This may sound very odd but this is a hypothetical trade that isn't crazy in terms of value and yet both teams would absolutely reject it.

You'd think a Bills fan would be less likely to suggest this. There are organizations like Green Bay who's fans probably think franchise QB's are easy to find. Their fans should be the ones saying to trade a franchise QB for draft picks.

OK, fair, I misunderstood - but I thought you were arguing for drafting up? The reason I misunderstood is that it doesn't make sense to me to argue for drafting up, by including a guy we both tag as a success who would be drafted by standing pat or trading BACK. How and why does that support your argument for trading up? I don't know...my guess is "not" but I think your top-3 success rate would also decrease. Ultimately, while I appreciate and applaud the work you put in, honest comment I feel choosing "top 3 WR" (when they're drafted at different pick numbers year to year) is a bit problematic. People, including myself and organizations like PFF, have tried to look at success rates by criteria like "top 10 picks" or "top half of the first" or "first" - some of it is in other threads on this board right now. The point is that while drafting, teams can't predict who the top 3 guys at a position will be, they can only make an educated guess about how early they need to draft to get a particular player. The bottom line is that the best success for any position is usually in the top half of the 1st round - something like 50%. Overall, in the first round, it's 30% and usually not much lower in the top 10 picks of the 2nd round. The second round as a whole stays pretty high, 20-25%. Third round something like 15-20%, then it plummets. Let me rummage a bit and I'll put a link to some of the recent stuff people have posted about WR success by draft round here.... Um, yes, you did include Ruggs as a "hit" when you brought up that the success would be 80% for a trade-up if you just included him - " If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%... think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???" My point is that if you include one hypothetical to claim a hypothetical marvelous 80% hit rate, you open a can of worms where other hypotheticals can enter the fray. And um, I'm not sure where you get the notion I'm upset. Not following you on the QB comment, but that's a nit. .....looping back to link some of the recent posts https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254036-how-to-pick-a-top-wr/#comment-9016893 looked at top receivers for the last 3 seasons and where they were drafted. 39% of them from 1st round, equal split between top and bottom half of the 1st round 25% of them from 2nd round 21% from 3rd round I'm not looking at "how many receivers were drafted where, and what % succeeded? I'm looking at "successful WR, where did they draft?" Here's one by Rigotz https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254044-1st-vs-2nd-round-wr-hit-rate/#comment-9017898 He goes back 9 years but omits the 22 and 23 draft as too recent for good data...you'll like his conclusion 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). [So he would support you, don't trade back] Here's one where I was looking at the most successful players in each draft, vs draft order https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254021-interesting-wr-scenario-posed-by-a-friend/page/5/#comment-9016980 Just some different ways of approaching the same problem. Hope it's of interest.

Guys... can someone find Thurm's sponsor... he's clearly losing it

Personally, I can't even pretend to have any kind of meaningful opinion - I just don't watch that much college football. But you're absolutely right that a lot goes into whether or not a guy succeeds beyond his innate talent. In addition to the factors you mention, there's also the intangibles of, how does this kid react to becoming an overnight millionaire? It doesn't help that to my observation with HS athletes, really talented athletes tend to get special treatment and the scope of it only gets bigger as they move up into college etc. I think that's one reason why the draft, even the top of the first round where the physical talent is undoubtedly elite, tends to be such a crap shoot. You can watch their film and measure their vertical leap, but not their heart or how hard they continue to work once paid.

⁰ I said drafting one of the first 3 WRs. In 2019 Deebo was #3 Interesting perspective, but honest question, do you really think it we keep going back 15-20 years that trend keeps up? We can take the time to do it as long as you acknowledge your flawed premise. Of course I'd do the same. I didn't include Ruggs as a hit, so why does the fact that I brought it up make you so upset? I actually think listing those QBs works against you

Yeah, it must be $6M only with unpublicized incentives. Salary is $1.21M, $1.5M cap hit, but fully guaranteed. It's basically backup money. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/lael-collins-17403/

Literally wants Shakir to show WR1 potential and talent. JA17 has told Beane as much, so Beane tells us. Those two believe they can pull this off. Make the fans think… Okay, there’s our guy, right there! That’s as the roster stands right now. He knows damn well that Samuel better be a good signing. Everyone else is absolutely nobody. He knows the fans know. Beane is riding with Josh on this one for the Shakir bump to kept the fans from drooling 24/7 over a new WR1 talent. But, Beane knows better too. He says this thing to calm us, but is hard at work to get a top WR in this draft. Could you imagine if Beane goes into next season with this WR group + a 2nd round pick. Unless that rookie is an instant game piece, with impact, We better have an improvement ACROSS THE BOARD everywhere else. Better have. RD1 is Edge, RD2 would have to be WR AND S. I think if the Bills pick a second round WR they would have to acquire another R2 pick spent on a R1 talent guy at DLine or S. I don’t know how they get another R2 pick. We have zero players we’d trade for a pick that high. I’m not even sure we have any players worth a R2 pick in a total hypothetical. Maybe Dawkins or Kincaid to a team that’s desperate. I’m not saying the Bills should do that… I don’t think they could even if they wanted to. Beane’s getting us a WR. I’ll guarantee it.

Our ESPN reporter Alaina Getzenbirg piece on Josh's presser https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39970133/bills-josh-allen-thanks-departed-stefon-diggs-hard-work I dunno. My kid, who is a bit younger than Josh and Stef, seems to very rarely make actual phone calls and prefer to do everything by text or DM So I wouldn't read too much into "text vs phone call", but I think it's been pretty clear for some time, for other reasons, that they haven't been tight.

Not sure why you keep saying "2 receivers". My point is simple: 1. Can't believe everything Beane is saying right now. A couple years ago he mentioned counting on Boogie to take hold of a starting DE spot. Then proceeded to sign Von. Same example about talking up Dane, then drafting Elam. He's always propping his current guys and expecting more of them. 2. Beane is going to draft more WRs. Likely 2. So when you say we have "2 receivers", that won't be the case in 9 days. Our core group for passing targets is likely to be: Samuel, Kincaid, Rd1 pick, Shakir, Rd 4 pick, Cook, Knox As to who those 2 draft picks will be, that's anyone's opinion as of now. My "hope" is they take: Rd 1: Worthy (if there), or Franklin Rd4: Javon Baker Gives us 2 legitimate downfield threats, both guys would be versatile to move around the offense (as Beane/Brady seem to want). They complement each other's skill sets well, ie: Worthy or Franklin are separators/lean/rely on speed and quicks.... Baker is stronger built/capable blocker/50 50 downfield guy, with good speed. So when Beane makes it sound like the Justin Shorters or Andy Isabellas of our team are to be relied on, that's just GM speak to me. We've seen nothing from any of the guys you listed that provides what we need. More likely they're battling for the last WR spot with Hollins, or against each other if we keep 6. Either way, not a significant impact to our success in 2024

Kincaid is going to be the #1 option in this offense. People are making too big of deal of this #1 receiver stuff. Yeah we need another WR but it doesn’t need to be a 150 target type receiver