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Bills 19 Steelers 16

Bills 31 Tin cans 20

Got to love when the math immediately makes sense

Stillers - 30 Bilz - 21

They could be in the exact same position down 31-24 and have 5 1/2 minutes left on the clock instead of 3. The huddling is insane when you are trailing. There is a limited amount of possessions remaining and your defense struggles to stop anything.

They lost the brains of the operation when Johnson left, Campbell certainly isn’t it.

I guess, but then your offense needs to score 2 TDs instead of just 1 TD. The tradeoff would be Scenario 1: - Your defense needs to force a punt or turnover - Your offense needs to convert the FG, and have a TD drive Scenario 2: - Your defense needs to prevent a TD and force a FG - Your offense needs to convert the 4th down, score a TD, and then have another TD drive I think scenario 1 is more likely, but it's close (Packers did score 4 consecutive TDs up to that drive).

It's the coach's fault, right? Points and recover an onside kick, come on it's easy.

Micah Parsons making huge plays, what a great pickup for the Packers.

Now kick the FG 🤔

How can it not? What is he gonna need a cast on?

Mike McMillan is great They might be the best one two punch in the Mac with nobody to get them the ball

Detroit is playing with zero urgency, I have no clue what the plan is here. They trust their defense to get a quick stop?

expected value of kicking FG in that spot vs EV of going for it results in EPA +/- not terribly complicated, nor something to outright reject because it runs counter to your feels

That would be a hilarious misfire. Even if the "mutual parting of ways" over a disagreement in usage was just PR - putting it out there that you essentially asked for your release over playing time just to come back to a spot where you'd get FAR less playing time as a Practice Squad member would make him look really, really, really dumb. I think he'd sooner sign on to another teams Practice Squad before coming back here after having Schefter say it was a mutual parting of ways over asking for more snaps. I can't think of a time where it was reported someone asked for their release and then immediately came back, let alone coming back to a lesser role.

The thought is you need to score a TD and then hold Green Bay to a FG at best. Then you get the ball back down 6 and right back in it. Getting to down by 7 and then kicking off doesn't help when their offense has had its way with you all day.

Why am I never impressed with Aidan Hutchinson, am I missing something?

Stats aren't for losers, but the predictive ability of these models is limited in football. Each play isn't an independent event you can simulate in isolation. Doubt his model accounts for the ability of the offense or defense. Doubt his model accounts for how the respective teams have been playing during the game. Doubt his model accounts for even the success rate of each team on 4th and short situations. It is likely just a statistical model that says given the score and time on the clock here is the probability of winning based on going for it vs kicking the FG/punting. This isn't baseball, it isn't one pitcher vs one batter, and there isn't a sample size of hundreds of thousands of pitches thrown during a regular season.

Can’t take a sack there. The mindset should be this is a drive where we have to score. So we will go for it on 4th down. So 3rd downs we can throw short of the sticks

They have tried others and they are worse! It's a shame because UB has some decent receivers like Victor Snow. Totally wasting them.

It worked so well in the NFC championship game.

How about the next hyped Japanese sensation, Tatsuya Imai, snubbing the Dodgers because he’d rather beat them than be on their team. I like him already.

But even if they score a TD on that drive after going for it on 4th down it is still a 3 point game. So no matter what happens the defense will have to make a stop.

What’s he gonna say? We have the worst WR room in the league and it’s all my fault?

absolute no brainer to go for it there lol right you dont know who ben baldwin is 'random statistical model' 😂😂 STATS ARE FOR LOSERZZZZ