Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I think there is a real potential dark horse scenario. First let me say, I firmly believe Orakpo and Brown will be gone by 11. I also see no way Raji makes it past Cinci as they coveted badly Sedrick Ellis last year and missed out on him...their DT situation is no better this year and I just dont see how they can pass on the best DT in the draft when its a real big need for them and a defensive minded coach. So, with top 2 DE's gone and no Raji...what do the Bills do? Top LB? Pettigrew? Reach for a lower rated DE or Center? Well, I think there is a dark horse player that could possibly heavily influence our draft slot. I think Sanchez is going to have a real good combine driving him up the draft boards as a top 10 player. If he does, it is quite possible he will fall to us at #11 if Stafford is taken first because of team needs, much like Quinn fell and Aaron Rodgers fell after the top QB went off the board. If he does, it will open up 2 possibilities worth considering...(remember this is assuming a strong combine by Sanchez, but I fully expect that): 1. For all you trade down enthusiasts...having Sanchez fall to 11 also gives us the most hope for a trade down. For a team to trade up, there has to be a player other teams covet enough to give up value to get. Sanchez could be that player this year ASSUMING he has a stong combine as I expect. With Orakpo, Brown and Raji off the board, then trading down to get some extra picks and still grab say Pettigrew, other DE, Center, Etc. really works out for us. There are quite a few teams BELOW us looking for some answers at QB this offseason...Teams below us that could look to move into our spot to grab Sanchez are Jets (17), Chi (18), TB (19), Det (20), Minn (22), or Tenn (30). The depth of their interest in this scenario will rely heavily on the comination of Sanchez's combine performance and what those teams do in Free Agency. To be honest, I just can't see any other scenario playing out that will have someone there at 11 that another team is going to covet enough to trade up and get at #11 that we wouldn't take ourselves. 2. In this scenario, could the Bills consider Sanchez as our pick at 11? I know, its blasphemy to suggest to the Trent lovers here, and I am sure I will get blasted for even mentioning it...but if Sanchez moves up the draft boards like Cutler did, he could be someone they see who could come in and push Trent for the job. I am just not too sure the FO and staff are as sold on Trent as the posters of this board are, especially with the durability issue. The game where his mysterious injury kept him out so JP could come in makes me wonder...add in the fact that we have only a 3rd pick invested in Trent, and you have the makings for a surprise dark horse pick... Please note that I am NOT, let me repeat NOT, currently suggesting that the Bills should take Sanchez or even that they will take him...I am just simply speculating it as an option if the draft plays out this way. I fully expect Orakpo, Brown, and Raji to be gone when we pick at 11, so if they are gone and Sanchez has a great combine, we could be sitting in a very interesting spot at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 On a similar vein, we need to hope Sanchez goes in the top-10. In all likelihood, these guys are projected top-10 picks: Stafford, Curry, Crabtree, 3 of the OTs, Brown, Raji, Orakpo, and possibly Jenkins. If Sanchez goes in the top-10, it would likely push one of the big 4 on defense down to #11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 On a similar vein, we need to hope Sanchez goes in the top-10. In all likelihood, these guys are projected top-10 picks: Stafford, Curry, Crabtree, 3 of the OTs, Brown, Raji, Orakpo, and possibly Jenkins. If Sanchez goes in the top-10, it would likely push one of the big 4 on defense down to #11. This is true...one of the teams below us I noted could trade into the top 10 to get him, which could push one of the other players down to us...good point and another way Sanchez could have a significant impact on our slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 In past years, I might have agreed, but lately it seems that if a top QB slides out of the top 5, he's going to keep dropping for quite a while. It happened to both Brady Quinn and Aaron Rodgers. Maybe someone would consider trading for the right to select him, but I think its just as likely that they'd sit back and see if that trend continued this year. IMO, the darkhorse for the Bills is Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin. Another WR isn't going to be #1 on their wish list in April, but that said, I do expect them to draft one in the R3-5 range. If things break right (wrong?), with Raji, Brown and Orakpo all off the board, I think they'd almost certainly look toward their offense with that pick and it would likely come down to either Pettigrew or Maclin. Given the circumstances at both positions, I would expect them to select Pettigrew, but I would not be surprised one bit if they selected Maclin instead. They're probably planning on drafting one in the midrounds anyway, and if he grades out significantly better than Pettigrew, they may as well pick Maclin and consider the #2 WR position *finally* solved. It wouldn't be a popular pick in terms of fan opinion, but if the chips fall the right way, I can definitely see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Scenario 1 is likely, but 2 is not. I dont expect Jauron, in what will be his last year coaching unless he turns the team around,to take a QB in the draft. Just dont see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I think there is a real potential dark horse scenario. First let me say, I firmly believe Orakpo and Brown will be gone by 11. I also see no way Raji makes it past Cinci as they coveted badly Sedrick Ellis last year and missed out on him...their DT situation is no better this year and I just dont see how they can pass on the best DT in the draft when its a real big need for them and a defensive minded coach. I responded to one of your previous posts on your idea about CIN's pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 In past years, I might have agreed, but lately it seems that if a top QB slides out of the top 5, he's going to keep dropping for quite a while. It happened to both Brady Quinn and Aaron Rodgers. Maybe someone would consider trading for the right to select him, but I think its just as likely that they'd sit back and see if that trend continued this year. Good point, and I thought about that, but here is why I see it as different this year. Look at the draft slots just below us: 17 - Jets 18 - Chi 19 - TB 20 - Det (if they dont take Stafford #1) and also 22 - Minn 30 - Tenn There is a run of 4 teams in a row potentially hunting for QB help with 2 more just below them. At this point in the offseason, there seems to be a decent drop off from Sanchez and the next best QB...that I think tempts teams to move up over each other and get him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 I responded to one of your previous posts on your idea about CIN's pick. Yeah, I responded to your response about that in the other thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Very excellent thread Gentlemen. Hard to get this depth of speculative analysis anywhere. Bravo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Sanchez is VERY ovarrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Sanchez is VERY ovarrated At this point he could be...but with no other quarterback a serious threat currently to over take him as the 2nd best QB in the draft (which is why I think he chose to come out this year) and strong combine (which I think he is fully capable of and likely has), I think his stock rises considerably come draft day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Sanchez is VERY ovarrated So was you spelling teacher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Yeah, I responded to your response about that in the other thread... How many CIN games did you watch last season? If you are a normal human being who doesn't live in Cincinnati and so can hardly avoid them if you care to watch tv games, my guess is that your answer approaches zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 So was you spelling teacher. lol...as yours apparently was too...read your post out loud... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 lol...as yours apparently was too...read your post out loud... ouch !!! got me .Must have gone to the same school. She had nice legs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I don't think it's necessarily a darkhorse player, but a darkhorse team. The Lions could shake up everything and take an OT at the #1 selection if one of them stands out at the combine. Both Stafford and Sanchez could then fall because I don't think that KC goes for a QB with their pick. I think they stick with Thigpen for this upcoming season. He played VERY WELL down the stretch for them. That has to count for something. That would leave Chicago with the #18, Tampa Bay with the #19, and Detroit with the #20 pick that they'd almost certainly use as trade bait to move up with some one to get the QB they want. I wouldn't make a trade with the Jets unless they give up their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd just because they're in our division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 they may as well pick Maclin and consider the #2 WR position *finally* solved. I thought we had the #2 WR position *finally* solved when we drafted Reed, Parrish, Hardy Of course I'm being sarcastic, as we already have the #2 WR position solved. His name is Lee Evans. Now that #1 WR position is another story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I just thought about it and Seattle might take Stafford if he falls to them at #4. Hasselbeck is getting old and Seneca Wallace is not a guy you build your franchise around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 I don't think it's necessarily a darkhorse player, but a darkhorse team. The Lions could shake up everything and take an OT at the #1 selection if one of them stands out at the combine. Both Stafford and Sanchez could then fall because I don't think that KC goes for a QB with their pick. I think they stick with Thigpen for this upcoming season. He played VERY WELL down the stretch for them. That has to count for something. That would leave Chicago with the #18, Tampa Bay with the #19, and Detroit with the #20 pick that they'd almost certainly use as trade bait to move up with some one to get the QB they want. I wouldn't make a trade with the Jets unless they give up their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd just because they're in our division. This is quite possible and why I listed Det at 20 as possibly a team who could look to move up to our spot to grab a QB. With no obvious threat from teams 2-16 taking a QB, Det might could very well go a different direction at #1 and look to grab one at 20 or move up a few slots ahead of the other teams who could be looking for a QB. Another reason our spot at 11 could become a hot spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I just thought about it and Seattle might take Stafford if he falls to them at #4. Hasselbeck is getting old and Seneca Wallace is not a guy you build your franchise around. Good thought - I didn't consider that. Hasselbeck has his chronic injury problem - his back, too. I do wonder about teams picking a QB in the top five, though. That's really big bucks these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Well, I think there is a dark horse player that could possibly heavily influence our draft slot. I think Sanchez is going to have a real good combine driving him up the draft boards as a top 10 player. If he does, it is quite possible he will fall to us at #11 if Stafford is taken first because of team needs, much like Quinn fell and Aaron Rodgers fell after the top QB went off the board. If he does, it will open up 2 possibilities worth considering...(remember this is assuming a strong combine by Sanchez, but I fully expect that): I'd first like to know what Matt Cassel's mother thinks about this. Surely she would have a more inside perspective on this. I'm not sure Sanchez is as coveted as you make him out to be. He has 16 career college starts and while his numbers are good, that's not exactly the thing a team likes when using a first rounder on a QB. Rose Bowl or not, I think NFL teams know that using a top pick should be on someone with a longer track record in the college game. Also not sure if Pete Carroll's strong recommendation to remain in school might hurt him. That situation is either PC being a college coach and wanting to keep his QB, or a situation where he didn't think Sanchez was ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I thought we had the #2 WR position *finally* solved when we drafted Reed, Parrish, Hardy Of course I'm being sarcastic, as we already have the #2 WR position solved. His name is Lee Evans. Now that #1 WR position is another story... That so-called #2 WR of yours has better statistics through his first 5 seasons than Andre Reed had through his first 5 seasons: Player GP REC YDS AVG Long TDS Reed 74 317 4,408 13.8 72 31 Evans 80 296 4,744 16.0 87T 32 And I'm quite certain you're not careless enough to say that Andre Reed wasn't a number 1 WR...so take your misplaced comment to the Land of Facts-Don't-Matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 That so-called #2 WR of yours has better statistics through his first 5 seasons than Andre Reed had through his first 5 seasons: Player GP REC YDS AVG Long TDS Reed 74 317 4,408 13.8 72 31 Evans 80 296 4,744 16.0 87T 32 And I'm quite certain you're not careless enough to say that Andre Reed wasn't a number 1 WR...so take your misplaced comment to the Land of Facts-Don't-Matter. Also not mentioned is look who is been throwing to Evans and who was throwing to Reed during those spans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisonbrigade Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 NO WAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 How many CIN games did you watch last season? If you are a normal human being who doesn't live in Cincinnati and so can hardly avoid them if you care to watch tv games, my guess is that your answer approaches zero. I am not going to pretend to be an expert on Cincy...so let's assume you are right and Cincy doesnt take Raji (I still think they must go D with their pick though). If Raji is so highly regarded now, his stock will only elevate after the combine...do you really see the best DT lasting to #11, especially with the next best one not rated nearly as high as him? There are several teams above us that have a big need at DT... So, even if Cincy passes on him for OL, I still dont think he falls to us, so not much changes in terms of this scenario I presented... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Also not sure if Pete Carroll's strong recommendation to remain in school might hurt him. That situation is either PC being a college coach and wanting to keep his QB, or a situation where he didn't think Sanchez was ready. I know I'm going to hear a little crap about this, but I think that Pete was lashing out because he knows how deeply this effects his team next year. This is going to keep them from a NC possibly. Everyone is going to be slobbing USC again, but they will have a young QB that is going to blow their shot at a BCS Title appearance. I would almost bet my house on this being Carroll's reasons behind his comments. It would be a dirty play on his part, Carroll that is, but Sanchez controls his own destiny with his workouts and testing. I think Sanchez knows this and left in spite of Pete's conversation with him and that's what ran Carroll a little hot under the collar. So he "cordially" said goodbye to his vaunted QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 That so-called #2 WR of yours has better statistics through his first 5 seasons than Andre Reed had through his first 5 seasons: Player GP REC YDS AVG Long TDS Reed 74 317 4,408 13.8 72 31 Evans 80 296 4,744 16.0 87T 32 And I'm quite certain you're not careless enough to say that Andre Reed wasn't a number 1 WR...so take your misplaced comment to the Land of Facts-Don't-Matter. Who said anything about Andre Reed? Not a valid comparison, the passing game 20 years ago didn't rack up the same numbers as they do today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 I'd first like to know what Matt Cassel's mother thinks about this. Surely she would have a more inside perspective on this. I'm not sure Sanchez is as coveted as you make him out to be. He has 16 career college starts and while his numbers are good, that's not exactly the thing a team likes when using a first rounder on a QB. Rose Bowl or not, I think NFL teams know that using a top pick should be on someone with a longer track record in the college game. Also not sure if Pete Carroll's strong recommendation to remain in school might hurt him. That situation is either PC being a college coach and wanting to keep his QB, or a situation where he didn't think Sanchez was ready. That is why I prefaced this with a big combine from Sanchez. I am not putting his stock this high at this current moment, but I fully do expect a big combine from him and that will catapult him up those draft boards...add in the Success Cassel had coming out of the same system with ZERO starts at USC, this is the perfect year for him to make a sharp rise in the boards which is most likely why he decided to come out now... USC has produced 3 notable QB's in recent years...Palmer, Leinart, and Cassel. 2 have had noticeable success coming out of that pro system, and Leinart still is an unknown but viewed as young QB with potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Also not mentioned is look who is been throwing to Evans and who was throwing to Reed during those spans... Evans had Trent Edwards, JP Losman, and Kelly Holcomb Reed had Trent Edwards, JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb, and Drew Bledsoe What difference does Reed's two years with Bledsoe have to do with anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Evans had Trent Edwards, JP Losman, and Kelly HolcombReed had Trent Edwards, JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb, and Drew Bledsoe What difference does Reed's two years with Bledsoe have to do with anything? Uhhhh.................They're talking about Andre Reed there friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 So was you spelling teacher. noh hee wuznt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I think in that scenario we could be offered a trade down, but with the teams that are after us (Den, Was, NO, Hou and SD) we would probably get the trade down value for the 15th slot instead of the 11th. Then the trade partner (say the Jets) would make the same offer to the Broncos and on down the line until they their got their player or upped the trade offer right before a team that needed a qb would pick. We need to have someone fall to us that Den, Was and/or NO covet, we don't, and someone in the 15-20 range really wants. Possibly CB Malcolm Jenkins if Hou, SD or NYJ were involved? Does Philly with an extra 1st rounder need a db? Of course some will say we won't pass on the db...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I know I'm going to hear a little crap about this, but I think that Pete was lashing out because he knows how deeply this effects his team next year. This is going to keep them from a NC possibly. Everyone is going to be slobbing USC again, but they will have a young QB that is going to blow their shot at a BCS Title appearance. I would almost bet my house on this being Carroll's reasons behind his comments. It would be a dirty play on his part, Carroll that is, but Sanchez controls his own destiny with his workouts and testing. I think Sanchez knows this and left in spite of Pete's conversation with him and that's what ran Carroll a little hot under the collar. So he "cordially" said goodbye to his vaunted QB. What was that about a dirty Sanchez? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moovemtooelay Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 There is nooooo way Sanchez works out at the combine. I do however see him having a great pro day at USC's workouts. Regardless love the post and I hope it happens. Sanchez is overrated and someone will find that out the hard way, I just hope were the team that capitalizes on it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 What was that about a dirty Sanchez? You idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 No thanks for a QB that has started about 11 games and that is his football experience at QB? He will likely end up going late 1st round as that is a HUGE concern for many teams. If you want him to sit for 2-3 years and learn then maybe.....but what a waste of a 1st round pick that would be. There will be plenty of available players there for the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 You idiot I didn't even touch the "crap" part, at least until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 I think in that scenario we could be offered a trade down, but with the teams that are after us (Den, Was, NO, Hou and SD) we would probably get the trade down value for the 15th slot instead of the 11th. Then the trade partner (say the Jets) would make the same offer to the Broncos and on down the line until they their got their player or upped the trade offer right before a team that needed a qb would pick. We need to have someone fall to us that Den, Was and/or NO covet, we don't, and someone in the 15-20 range really wants. Possibly CB Malcolm Jenkins if Hou, SD or NYJ were involved? Does Philly with an extra 1st rounder need a db? Of course some will say we won't pass on the db...... I see your point...However, I think we will have some leverage though which will come from there being several teams potentially looking to grab the QB once you get to slot #17. So, they will run the risk of someone trading up ahead of them, so trying to find a trading partner below us poses risk to them. For instance, NY is talking to say Houston at 15, TB may be talking to someone ahead of that slot like us or Den to move up and get the same player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 No thanks for a QB that has started about 11 games and that is his football experience at QB? He will likely end up going late 1st round as that is a HUGE concern for many teams. If you want him to sit for 2-3 years and learn then maybe.....but what a waste of a 1st round pick that would be. There will be plenty of available players there for the Bills. He started 16 games, not 11 and is coming from a system who's last 3 QB's before him were 2 heisman winners (one of which has had pretty good success in the NFL and the other is still an unknown) and Cassel who had ZERO starts and came out and had a very productive year in his first games since High School. Thats a Pro System there at USC and that will help his stock. Make no mistake, Cassels development and success with no college starts will help counter the concerns of him starting just 16 games... This is the perfect year for him to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 He started 16 games, not 11 and is coming from a system who's last 3 QB's before him were 2 heisman winners (one of which has had pretty good success in the NFL and the other is still an unknown) and Cassel who had ZERO starts and came out and had a very productive year in his first games since High School. Thats a Pro System there at USC and that will help his stock. Make no mistake, Cassels development and success with no college starts will help counter the concerns of him starting just 16 games... This is the perfect year for him to come out. However, Leinart is the counter argument. I think the incredible advantage that NE has in coaching helped Cassel. Would he have had the same success with the Bills and their staff. I would like to think so but have serious doubts. But Sanchez is a lot brighter than Leinart and his sucess will probably hinge, in part , to the team that chooses him. LIONS ---> C YA Mark Absolutely to his advantage is that he is in an offense that makes him pro-ready, as you stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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