Bill from NYC Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Although things have changed as of late, safeties are generally not selected in the top 10. Additionally, Marv himself admitted that there were offers to trade down and gather additional picks. Whitner was even surprised to be selected at #8. Given the above, and assuming that he remains healthy for the sake of this discussion, I would want lots of production in his first 2 seasons, and pro-bowl caliber play by his 3rd to feel OK with this pick. A case could be made that #8 is too high for ALMOST any safety, let alone one who is merely "good." Plus, by rejecting the trade offer, we missed on the opportunity to develop 2 (perhaps 3) first round picks on our rebuilding team. That said, if he is a pro-bowl player, I cannot consider this anything but a good selection. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawgg Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 He needs to develop into a Troy Polamalu / Roy Williams type player to be worthy of a top-10 pick. Antoine Winfield-level production, which is very good in and of itself, would NOT be enough to consider this a successful pick. Although things have changed as of late, safeties are generally not selected in the top 10. Additionally, Marv himself admitted that there were offers to trade down and gather additional picks. Whitner was even surprised to be selected at #8. Given the above, and assuming that he remains healthy for the sake of this discussion, I would want lots of production in his first 2 seasons, and pro-bowl caliber play by his 3rd to feel OK with this pick. A case could be made that #8 is too high for ALMOST any safety, let alone one who is merely "good." Plus, by rejecting the trade offer, we missed on the opportunity to develop 2 (perhaps 3) first round picks on our rebuilding team. That said, if he is a pro-bowl player, I cannot consider this anything but a good selection. Opinions? 711642[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Pro Bowl or atleast worthy of the pro bowl by the third year seems reasonable for a pick this high. He needs to show great toughness and instinct in run support, and be able to cover slot WR's and Te's well enough to warrant Qb's not taking advantage of a matchup with him. He seems like a real character guy so hopefully he will show some leadership by year 3 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 For the #8 pick, I do expect playmaking and solid ball skills in addition to solid tackling and coverage skills. If he ends up being another Lil' Antoine, I will be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. K Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Just to give this some perspective, what percentage of top-ten draftees end up as pro bowlers by their third year? I ask this sincerely, since I don't know. I suspect the number is nowhere near 50%. I would be surprised if it goes past 30%. I think the bar is being set a little too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFFALOTONE Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 If he makes plays and gets the job done I have no problem with the pick. It all depends on what you consider to be successful. Who know this kid could be the next Ronnie Lott or he can be a Coy Wire. From his attributes alone he seems like a guy who flys under the radar and is a harworker. We all know how the Oline needed a look in the draft but its obvious we are rebuilding and securing young talent in one spot. Which i am fine with. I would rather not have one decent player everywhere then have a group of four or five talented guys in one spot. Alot of people dont realize that our secondary could be very good in the next couple of years. I think Marv wants to get that blue collar mentality back and have the idea that everyone has to contribute to be successful. Marv the Master motivator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 I think McCargo's the one that really needs to show something quick. After burning 2 Day 1 picks in a solid draft to get him, he better be a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthWesternBill Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Just to give this some perspective, what percentage of top-ten draftees end up as pro bowlers by their third year? I ask this sincerely, since I don't know. I suspect the number is nowhere near 50%. I would be surprised if it goes past 30%. I think the bar is being set a little too high. 711653[/snapback] I agree, we all hope he ends up being pro bowl caliber but uhhhhhh this is unrealistic , the success of a player in the NFL is BY NO MEANS a function of what pick they were selected at!! Not even close to one really. This was a solid pick, regardless of what "value" people feel we should have gotten with the #8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Whitner needs to become a leader and feared Safety in the mold (as much as I hate to say it) of Rodney Harrison. Stay clean, positive, and out of trouble and give us Bills fans something to look forward to on Sundays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFFALOTONE Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 I think McCargo's the one that really needs to show something quick. After burning 2 Day 1 picks in a solid draft to get him, he better be a beast. 711661[/snapback] I agree. We need him to step up big. He has to be our anchor out there I dont care what anyone says- rookie or not, Triplett is not the future Mccargo is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWings Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 He needs to develop into a Troy Polamalu / Roy Williams type player to be worthy of a top-10 pick. Antoine Winfield-level production, which is very good in and of itself, would NOT be enough to consider this a successful pick. 711645[/snapback] Since Winfield is a CB, I don't think that quite qualifies here. Winfield's a great tackler - makes the play in open-field situations and defends the receiver well - but he was never one to get the INT when the situation presented itself. I'd expect that more of a safety (tackling and the occasional INT) than a CB. Thus, if Whitner does exactly what Winfield did here, I'll be happy. I'd agree with the Polamalu/Williams point. Polamalu had an outstanding year and while Williams occasionally shows up in the highlights, he's a solid defender that teams try to stay away from. If Whitner can get close to that level by late in year 2, I'll be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 I think McCargo's the one that really needs to show something quick. After burning 2 Day 1 picks in a solid draft to get him, he better be a beast. 711661[/snapback] They really just burned one pick to get him. This is similar to the logic of those who say we used 2 1st round picks to get JP when really got an extra 1st round pick from Dallas and then used one from the following year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 I'll consider it a good pick if we can say he had a good career when he retires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in STL Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Pro Bowl or atleast worthy of the pro bowl by the third year seems reasonable for a pick this high. He needs to show great toughness and instinct in run support, and be able to cover slot WR's and Te's well enough to warrant Qb's not taking advantage of a matchup with him. He seems like a real character guy so hopefully he will show some leadership by year 3 as well. 711647[/snapback] If only it were that easy. Being a top 10 pick does not always translate into a Pro Bowl player and some of the Pro Bowl selections have more to do with hype and popularity rather than on the field play. Daryl Talley had a hard time making the Pro Bowl. If Whitner plays with the impact of Talley then I am happy. If he is a leader, a strong starter, and a play maker you would expect the pro-bowls to come. What might be more relevant is how good is he compared to other alleged top 10 prospects that we passed on such as Lienart, Ngata, and and Bunkley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 They really just burned one pick to get him. This is similar to the logic of those who say we used 2 1st round picks to get JP when really got an extra 1st round pick from Dallas and then used one from the following year. 711671[/snapback] Not the same logic at all: It took 3 draft picks to get JP: not 2 #1's, but a 2004 #2, a 2004 #5, and a 2005 #1. It took 2 Day 1 draft picks to get McCargo: a 2006 #2 and a 2006 #3. Assuming no trade-down from #8, we should have left Day 1 this year with 4 players, not 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drnykterstein Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 if we win a super bowl.. this pick was an amazing pick. i dont care about prowl bowls or stats or national recognition, just the freeking super bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Not the same logic at all: It took 3 draft picks to get JP: not 2 #1's, but a 2004 #2, a 2004 #5, and a 2005 #1. It took 2 Day 1 draft picks to get McCargo: a 2006 #2 and a 2006 #3. Assuming no trade-down from #8, we should have left Day 1 this year with 4 players, not 3. 711683[/snapback] Ok, I see how you were presenting it. So what's wrong with a 2 and a 3 for a 1 ? (especially when you have an extra 3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Although things have changed as of late, safeties are generally not selected in the top 10. Additionally, Marv himself admitted that there were offers to trade down and gather additional picks. Whitner was even surprised to be selected at #8. Given the above, and assuming that he remains healthy for the sake of this discussion, I would want lots of production in his first 2 seasons, and pro-bowl caliber play by his 3rd to feel OK with this pick. A case could be made that #8 is too high for ALMOST any safety, let alone one who is merely "good." Plus, by rejecting the trade offer, we missed on the opportunity to develop 2 (perhaps 3) first round picks on our rebuilding team. That said, if he is a pro-bowl player, I cannot consider this anything but a good selection. Opinions? 711642[/snapback] I think whitnet needs to play at a high level, and stabilize the SS position for the Bills for the long term. If Whitner plays well enough where we dont have to worry about the SS position for many years, then i think its a successful pick. Ideally i'd liek to see him develop into a polamalu/roy williams type player and be a game changer, and i dont think thats an unreasonable expectation for a top 10 pick. I agree with pro-bowl quality play, but not necessarily a pro-bowl selection. Frankly, if he doesnt make the pro bowl only because he got beat out by reed and polamalu, thats fine by me. Finally, i think we are seeing a shift in defensive strategy on the part of NFL teams. Traditionally, safties are not drafted very high, but recently, more have been. I think coaches are starting to value what a difference a true playmaker at safety can be, and subsequently, teams are spending higher picks on them. Recently, Sean Taylor, Roy Williams, have gone top 10, and polamalu and reed are mid 1st round picks. I think its tough to bash the whitner selection too much, because 3 safeties were drafted in the top 15 picks this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Ok, I see how you were presenting it. So what's wrong with a 2 and a 3 for a 1 ? (especially when you have an extra 3) 711689[/snapback] In a solid draft with as many holes as the Bills have, I would not have given away any Day 1 picks... if anything, I would've tried to get more, not less. Everything is fine though if McCargo is a stud. If McCargo is a dud, then Marv is an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 In a solid draft with as many holes as the Bills have, I would not have given away any Day 1 picks... if anything, I would've tried to get more, not less. Everything is fine though if McCargo is a stud. If McCargo is a dud, then Marv is an idiot. 711696[/snapback] The Whitner pick, to me, needs to be looked at as a package deal with McCargo. The Bills had several holes to fill. At #8 they pretty much knew who was going to be available, within 1-2 players. They decided before the draft that they were going to get a SS to play this defense and a DT to stop the run and fill the gap of the loss of Adams. This was reinforced by the signing of Reyes to play OG right before the draft. The conventional wisdom was to look at Ngala or Bunkley. But the Bills decided, and came right and said it after, that they thought the combination of Whitner and McCargo, who they wanted all along, was a better combination than Bunkley (or Ngala) and the #3 SS (because Huff and Whitner) would surely be gone. It's an understandable strategy, and I think probably true. The more I see of Whitner, the more I like. And I always liked McCargo. So the play of those two, IMO, after 2-3 years, will be the determining factor in whether the Whitner pick was a good one. One could go as far as say if Whitner is serviceable and McCargo is an all-pro, that the Whitner pick was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts