Bills are just 4 games away from being the most patient fanbase in the Super Bowl era.

[NoSaint]

Can you imagine what a guru like Mcvay/reid/shanny would do with Josh?

 

Or even just a bulldog like Campbell who would embrace him fully?

 

would Kevin O’Connell be terrible with Josh? Sean Payton? Jim harbaugh?

 

 

between this at of higher tier guys and my last list rattling off random mid tier coaches I’ve got to be close or at 15 names that would be able the win the AFCE and beat the Skylar Thompson dolphins in the wildcard?

 

Dan Quinn showing up with kingsbury would’ve been a fine enough floor. I think demeco is fine enough even if not a favorite of mine. Mike Macdonald similarly not a guy I’m stumping for but what’s the drop off?
 

Are we talking dropping 10 wins over 9 years and maybe miss the playoffs 1-2 times when those extra losses are clustered as the floor in this list? But also a ceiling where some have rings? 

 

 

[NewEra]

19 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I mean it’s an 11-13 win kind of result any given year. Missing the playoffs at 8–9 wins would be a pretty big fall 

 

theres some space in there, but not a ton. 
 

ignoring the bar napkin of 30 coaches and just saying avoiding one of the few that have no business at head coach- we get anyone even approaching average- which includes a lot of respected names through mid to late 20something in the rankings is going to have this team in the playoffs consistently and likely beating a lot of the wild card teams that McD has been lucky enough to draw 

 

the original post I replied to mentioned wasting Josh even more if we don’t get a top guy. I’m willing to risk maybe being a 10 win team as the downside if the upside is breaking through 

🤷🏻‍♂️ while I don’t think McD is an elite coach by any means, I think he also has an upside of breaking through and winning a Super Bowl. 
 

sure, I’d love to have several coaches that already have jobs and aren’t going anywhere…but they aren’t going anywhere.  Which available HCs have that upside?  Tough to tell with coordinators.  If there are any, I’m willing to make the move if we don’t make the SB this year.  I was willing last year and the year before.  I just think that it’s certainly possible for us to be more than minimally worse with any coaches available.  
 

 

[hondo in seattle]

6 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Its a false choice to say changing coaches is "Blowing it up" or retaining the head coach..  There have been 10 different coaches who made it to the Super Bowl in their first or second season.  The change in head coach seem to be the "change" needed in those cases.  

This era may have ended with the arrival of the Vrabel/Maye duo.  Early returns as a Bills fan are not promising.  But they are early.   

 

If you change your head coach, you're probably also changing most of the coaching staff.   And you're probably changing either the offensive playbook & scheme, or the defensive playbook & scheme, or both.  So I do think it's pretty much a binary choice:  Keep McD or blow it up.  

 

Saying firing a head works sometimes is arguing by anecdote and isn't valid.  I can give you other anecdotes.  For example, after the 49ers fired Harbaugh, they collapsed under Tomsula. 

 

11 head coaches with winning records were fired during the SB era.  Only 2 of the teams involved posted a better record in the first two full seasons after the firing.  Only 1 team won a SB within 3 years.  Firing a winning head coach isn't generally speaking a good idea.  

 

Coach                              | Team              | Record at Firing | Pre-Firing Win % | Post-Firing Win % | Super Bowl Win
-----------------------   |--------------  |------------------|------------------|-------------------|----------------
Tony Dungy                     | Buccaneers   | 54–42 (.563)       | .563                     | .625                       | ✅ Yes (2002)
Marty Schottenheimer   | Chargers        | 47–33 (.588)        | .588                     | .563                      | ❌ No
Jim Harbaugh                 | 49ers              | 44–19–1 (.695)     | .695                     | .313                       | ❌ No
Lovie Smith                     | Bears              | 81–63 (.563)        | .563                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Mike McCarthy               | Packers           | 125–77–2 (.618)   | .618                      | .625                      | ❌ No
Mike Shanahan               | Broncos          | 138–86 (.616)       | .616                      | .438                      | ❌ No
Tom Coughlin                  | Giants             | 102–90 (.531)      | .531                       | .375                      | ❌ No
Brian Billick                      | Ravens           | 80–64 (.556)       | .556                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Wade Phillips                   | Cowboys        | 34–22 (.607)       | .607                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Mike Smith                      | Falcons            | 66–46 (.589)      | .589                      | .438                      | ❌ No
Jeff Fisher                       | Titans              | 142–120 (.542)    | .542                      | .438                      | ❌ No

 

 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, bills_fan said:

 

 

There is one "sort-of" equivalent.  Tampa.  When they fired Dungy and hired Chucky.  And Chucky took them to win the SB.  But that Tampa team rode an all time great defense.  Absent adding a Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb, we don't have an all time great offense to ride.

 

Dungy's win % at Tampa would have been good for 65th all time. That is sort of my point. There are cases, nobody disputes, where a team has changed Head Coach and got over the hump. But having a long ternured coach who is top 15 all time in win percentage but hasn't got over the hump that is pretty much unprecedented. 

 

There are arguments to fire McDermott. I am just not persuaded historical precedent is really one of them. 

[hondo in seattle]

7 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Strange title. Pretty sure the fan base doesn’t hire/ fire coaches. Most patient ownership maybe, if it’s quantified by firing coaches. 

 

To all the good folks out there who want to fire McD: Tell me what you see in Terry's resume that makes you believe he's going to pick a good successor?

 

Pegs first hired Rex for the Bills.  And he's been through Ruff, Rolston, Nolan, Bylsma, Housley, Krueger, Granato, and Ruff again with the Sabres.  Unless you count the Bandits, his track record at picking coaches isn't good.  McDermott is his best major sports hire so far - in fact, the only one to have a winning record and the only one to reach the playoffs  

 

As I posted previously, 11 coaches with winning records were fired in the SB era.  Only 2 teams improved after they fired their winning head coach.  Only 1 won a Super Bowl.  It just doesn't happen a lot.  Terry's track record doesn't suggest he'll beat the odds.  

 

I trust McD to deliver us a trophy eventually more than I trust Terry to pick a successor who will.  

[BigDingus]

7 hours ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

For many years the goal was getting by KC. Now, KC isn't the primary concern for the Bills. NE is. 

 

I don't think people understand just how massive of a failure it would be to lose the division & now be looking up at NE...

 

We had a team that was supposed to be competing for a SB... with an MVP QB, several years worth of drafts/free agencies/other roster moves, and yet, instead of building on that & getting better, the moves we've made have made us worse.

 

To allow NE to overtake us is a huge indictment on the front office & HC. That means the other team is hitting on their players, while you're not. It could also mean their coaches & just better too. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

McDermott is Lewis is McDermott 

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

If you change your head coach, you're probably also changing most of the coaching staff.   And you're probably changing either the offensive playbook & scheme, or the defensive playbook & scheme, or both.  So I do think it's pretty much a binary choice:  Keep McD or blow it up.  

 

Saying firing a head works sometimes is arguing by anecdote and isn't valid.  I can give you other anecdotes.  For example, after the 49ers fired Harbaugh, they collapsed under Tomsula. 

 

11 head coaches with winning records were fired during the SB era.  Only 2 of the teams involved posted a better record in the first two full seasons after the firing.  Only 1 team won a SB within 3 years.  Firing a winning head coach isn't generally speaking a good idea.  

 

Coach                              | Team              | Record at Firing | Pre-Firing Win % | Post-Firing Win % | Super Bowl Win
-----------------------   |--------------  |------------------|------------------|-------------------|----------------
Tony Dungy                     | Buccaneers   | 54–42 (.563)       | .563                     | .625                       | ✅ Yes (2002)
Marty Schottenheimer   | Chargers        | 47–33 (.588)        | .588                     | .563                      | ❌ No
Jim Harbaugh                 | 49ers              | 44–19–1 (.695)     | .695                     | .313                       | ❌ No
Lovie Smith                     | Bears              | 81–63 (.563)        | .563                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Mike McCarthy               | Packers           | 125–77–2 (.618)   | .618                      | .625                      | ❌ No
Mike Shanahan               | Broncos          | 138–86 (.616)       | .616                      | .438                      | ❌ No
Tom Coughlin                  | Giants             | 102–90 (.531)      | .531                       | .375                      | ❌ No
Brian Billick                      | Ravens           | 80–64 (.556)       | .556                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Wade Phillips                   | Cowboys        | 34–22 (.607)       | .607                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Mike Smith                      | Falcons            | 66–46 (.589)      | .589                      | .438                      | ❌ No
Jeff Fisher                       | Titans              | 142–120 (.542)    | .542                      | .438                      | ❌ No

 

 

 

I think there is a big difference in the kaepernick 9ers losing harbaugh and the Allen bills losing McDermott 

 

maybe I’m wrong but I think those are barely comparable 

[Avisan]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

I don't think people understand just how massive of a failure it would be to lose the division & now be looking up at NE...

 

We had a team that was supposed to be competing for a SB... with an MVP QB, several years worth of drafts/free agencies/other roster moves, and yet, instead of building on that & getting better, the moves we've made have made us worse.

 

To allow NE to overtake us is a huge indictment on the front office & HC. That means the other team is hitting on their players, while you're not. It could also mean their coaches & just better too. 

Is it a massive failure?

 

They've been a garbage team for a few seasons accumulating high draft picks.  They have a cupcake schedule, a currently high-performing QB, and a good coaching staff.  If we drop the division to them this year, meh, it happens.

 

If we get consistently overtaken and/or start missing the playoffs, sure, you can talk "failure".  It's pure entitlement to think no other divisional team is allowed to catch up, though.

[Sweats]

For the record.........i don't trust the process and i don't like the process

[Metal Man]

13 hours ago, Chaos said:

Mahomes is not better than Brady.  Peyton Manning, Big Ben, got past him multiple times.  Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco even got by them. 

Joe Burrows and the Bengals got by Mahomes.  So did the Patriots.  

 

 

Do you mean beat Mahomes in the playoffs by "got past him"?

 

If so I don't see where Peyton or Ben beat Mahomes in the playoffs.

 

Mahomes has played in the AFC championship game every single year since he has been a starter and his record there is 5-2 with the only 2 losses being to Brady** and Burrows.

[Chaos]

8 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

If you change your head coach, you're probably also changing most of the coaching staff.   And you're probably changing either the offensive playbook & scheme, or the defensive playbook & scheme, or both.  So I do think it's pretty much a binary choice:  Keep McD or blow it up.  

 

Saying firing a head works sometimes is arguing by anecdote and isn't valid.  I can give you other anecdotes.  For example, after the 49ers fired Harbaugh, they collapsed under Tomsula. 

 

11 head coaches with winning records were fired during the SB era.  Only 2 of the teams involved posted a better record in the first two full seasons after the firing.  Only 1 team won a SB within 3 years.  Firing a winning head coach isn't generally speaking a good idea.  

 

Coach                              | Team              | Record at Firing | Pre-Firing Win % | Post-Firing Win % | Super Bowl Win
-----------------------   |--------------  |------------------|------------------|-------------------|----------------
Tony Dungy                     | Buccaneers   | 54–42 (.563)       | .563                     | .625                       | ✅ Yes (2002)
Marty Schottenheimer   | Chargers        | 47–33 (.588)        | .588                     | .563                      | ❌ No
Jim Harbaugh                 | 49ers              | 44–19–1 (.695)     | .695                     | .313                       | ❌ No
Lovie Smith                     | Bears              | 81–63 (.563)        | .563                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Mike McCarthy               | Packers           | 125–77–2 (.618)   | .618                      | .625                      | ❌ No
Mike Shanahan               | Broncos          | 138–86 (.616)       | .616                      | .438                      | ❌ No
Tom Coughlin                  | Giants             | 102–90 (.531)      | .531                       | .375                      | ❌ No
Brian Billick                      | Ravens           | 80–64 (.556)       | .556                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Wade Phillips                   | Cowboys        | 34–22 (.607)       | .607                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Mike Smith                      | Falcons            | 66–46 (.589)      | .589                      | .438                      | ❌ No
Jeff Fisher                       | Titans              | 142–120 (.542)    | .542                      | .438                      | ❌ No

 

 

 

10 examples of 59 super bowls is more than an ancedote.  Going forward with the same QB/HC combo is actually a hope to generate the unique anecdote " the only duo to play together or more than 140 games before winning a conference championship"

your list is a flawed analyis. 

 

There are a total of 10 first or second year  (Rookie) Head Coaches (5) that made it to the super bowl. 
 

Don McCafferty (Baltimore Colts, Won Super Bowl V

Red Miller (Denver Broncos, Lost Super Bowl XII

George Seifert (San Francisco 49ers, Won Super Bowl XXIV

Bill Callahan (Oakland Raiders, Lost Super Bowl XXXVII

Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis Colts, Lost Super Bowl XLIV
 

Second-Year Head Coaches (5)

Ray Malavasi (Los Angeles Rams, Lost Super Bowl XIV

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers, Won Super Bowl XLIII

Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco 49ers, Lost Super Bowl XLVII

Doug Pederson (Philadelphia Eagles, Won Super Bowl LII

Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams, Lost Super Bowl LIII

If your suggesting "its easier for a coach to take a team that has been losing consistently to the super bowl", I will have to disagree. 

[DrDawkinstein]

8 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

If you change your head coach, you're probably also changing most of the coaching staff.   And you're probably changing either the offensive playbook & scheme, or the defensive playbook & scheme, or both.  So I do think it's pretty much a binary choice:  Keep McD or blow it up.  

 

Saying firing a head works sometimes is arguing by anecdote and isn't valid.  I can give you other anecdotes.  For example, after the 49ers fired Harbaugh, they collapsed under Tomsula. 

 

11 head coaches with winning records were fired during the SB era.  Only 2 of the teams involved posted a better record in the first two full seasons after the firing.  Only 1 team won a SB within 3 years.  Firing a winning head coach isn't generally speaking a good idea.  

 

Coach                              | Team              | Record at Firing | Pre-Firing Win % | Post-Firing Win % | Super Bowl Win
-----------------------   |--------------  |------------------|------------------|-------------------|----------------
Tony Dungy                     | Buccaneers   | 54–42 (.563)       | .563                     | .625                       | ✅ Yes (2002)
Marty Schottenheimer   | Chargers        | 47–33 (.588)        | .588                     | .563                      | ❌ No
Jim Harbaugh                 | 49ers              | 44–19–1 (.695)     | .695                     | .313                       | ❌ No
Lovie Smith                     | Bears              | 81–63 (.563)        | .563                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Mike McCarthy               | Packers           | 125–77–2 (.618)   | .618                      | .625                      | ❌ No
Mike Shanahan               | Broncos          | 138–86 (.616)       | .616                      | .438                      | ❌ No
Tom Coughlin                  | Giants             | 102–90 (.531)      | .531                       | .375                      | ❌ No
Brian Billick                      | Ravens           | 80–64 (.556)       | .556                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Wade Phillips                   | Cowboys        | 34–22 (.607)       | .607                      | .500                      | ❌ No
Mike Smith                      | Falcons            | 66–46 (.589)      | .589                      | .438                      | ❌ No
Jeff Fisher                       | Titans              | 142–120 (.542)    | .542                      | .438                      | ❌ No

 

 

 

 

We've already changed the Offensive scheme a few times in McD's tenure, and 3 times with Josh, so probably not a big deal at this point. We have the OL, we have the QB, we have the RB. Just need some WRs and better playcalling.

 

And a wholesale Defensive scheme change is exactly what I'm hoping for. So you're only selling me further on it.

 

You're also missing the recent Philadelphia Eagles from your list because your criteria is too narrow. Pederson was fired after technically a losing record, keeping them off the list, but that record was mostly due to injuries and QB changes. Pederson was fired shortly after winning a SB and with a good roster, and Siriani stepped right in and took them right back to the top of the mountain.